The Alternative Green Energy Thread

EricMears

JKenH said:

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver

Maintaining the Grauniad's reputation for accuracy ?

shinytop

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver

Maintaining the Grauniad's reputation for accuracy ?

But the forecasts in that report were accurate; it's only because of all the EVs and wind turbines we have now that we've averted disaster. 

QrizB

EricMears said:

JKenH said:

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver

Maintaining the Grauniad's reputation for accuracy ?

Did the Pentagon report say what the Guardian claimed? Apparently it did, so the Guardian's reporting was accurate in that respect.

Here's a longer discussion of the report, it's context and content, and the authors' remit:

https://monthlyreview.org/2004/05/01/the-pentagon-and-climate-change/

JKenH

Data centre power use up 144pc since 2015 amid concern over electricity price hikes and outage alerts

Irish news but no doubt a trend worldwide.

Electricity use by data centres is now so high it matches that of all rural homes in Ireland, latest figures show.

Central Statistics Office (CSO) records show that data centres proliferated so much from 2015-2020 that their electricity usage rose by 144pc.

They accounted for 11pc of the country’s total electricity consumption in 2020 – just marginally below the 12pc used by all rural dwellings combined.

Demand for electricity grew generally over the five years, but data centres accounted for 72.5pc of the surge.

https://www.independent.ie/news/environment/data-centre-power-use-up-144pc-since-2015-amid-concern-over-electricity-price-hikes-and-outage-alerts-41262650.html

JKenH

Another bad day for electricity suppliers. Average spot price today has been around £800/MWh with peak of over £4000 and day ahead pricing currently over £1500. I don’t recall seeing it quite this high before. Emissions have been around 300g/kWh much of the working day 




https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2022-01-24&&_k=nclu0t

michaels

JKenH said:

Another bad day for electricity suppliers. Average spot price today has been around £800/MWh with peak of over £4000 and day ahead pricing currently over £1500. I don’t recall seeing it quite this high before. Emissions have been around 300g/kWh much of the working day 




https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2022-01-24&&_k=nclu0t

Until storage is sorted be are going to need a large FF generation capacity even if with massive wind build out it may produce a smaller and smaller proportion of total output.  I wonder what the economics of keeping this capacity online whilst it only generates as little as 10% or less of its nominal 24x7 capacity looks like?

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Another bad day for electricity suppliers. Average spot price today has been around £800/MWh with peak of over £4000 and day ahead pricing currently over £1500. I don’t recall seeing it quite this high before. Emissions have been around 300g/kWh much of the working day 




https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2022-01-24&&_k=nclu0t

Until storage is sorted be are going to need a large FF generation capacity even if with massive wind build out it may produce a smaller and smaller proportion of total output.  I wonder what the economics of keeping this capacity online whilst it only generates as little as 10% or less of its nominal 24x7 capacity looks like?

Yesterday fossil fuels provided 0.51TWh of capacity and their contribution today will probably be even higher. Over 2 days we would need 1TWh of storage to replace that as there would have been insufficient wind overnight to recharge any storage facility.

If in a few years time (assuming static demand) we had doubled our solar and wind output and shut down our fossil fuel plants then on a similar couple of days we would need around 0.8 TWh of storage. It is not inconceivable that such conditions could persist for several days or even a week or longer. Realistically we might therefore need 4-5TWh of storage. 

if we assume a battery storage cost of £100/kWh, then that’s £100,000/MWh, £100m/GWh and £100bn/TWh. The cost off 4-5TWh of storage is of the order of £300-400bn. We could build more but it would sit idle for most of the year so a business case would be hard to justify.

The big problem with storage in winter is having the spare generation to top it up so if we had planned storage for 10 days and have a particularly bad run of more than 10-14 calmer days (and we have no alternative fossil fuel plants as they are shut) then we simply have no means of meeting the demand that otherwise was met from storage. We could therefore be faced with a daily 0.4 TWh shortage or in other words only enough energy to meet half the country’s needs. What happens to the economy then?

I would be interested to hear what levels of storage and variable wind/solar capacity others think might solve the problem. 

Edit: I have made no allowance for round trip losses on storage.

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Another bad day for electricity suppliers. Average spot price today has been around £800/MWh with peak of over £4000 and day ahead pricing currently over £1500. I don’t recall seeing it quite this high before. Emissions have been around 300g/kWh much of the working day 




https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2022-01-24&&_k=nclu0t

Until storage is sorted be are going to need a large FF generation capacity even if with massive wind build out it may produce a smaller and smaller proportion of total output.  I wonder what the economics of keeping this capacity online whilst it only generates as little as 10% or less of its nominal 24x7 capacity looks like?

In answer to your  question you might find some answers in here. It’s a long document and I haven’t  had the time to read it all and take it in.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/566803/Leigh_Fisher_Non-renewable_Generation_Cost.pdf

Verdigris

Batteries are really only suitable for diurnal energy shifts or perhaps up to a week. We need more physical solutions, such as pumped storage, weights, cryogenic air etc. I wonder if depleted gas fields could be used to store pressurised air?

As to the numbers...

JKenH

Electricity capacity boosted amid fears war in Ukraine will spark rolling blackouts

The resilience of Britain's energy system is being strengthened by ministers, as analysts warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine risks a surge in gas prices that would spark rolling blackouts.

The Business Department has moved to ensure more electricity supply than previously planned is on standby next winter in a bid to fill gaps.

It comes as City analysts warned that gas prices in Britain could more than quadruple to 1,000 pence, or £10, per therm, triggering rolling blackouts, in the extreme scenario that all Russian supplies to Europe are cut off amid tensions over Ukraine.

Meanwhile, low wind speeds over the past 48 hours have forced one of Britain’s few remaining coal-fired power stations to come online for the first time since November.

Each year, selected generators are paid to make sure they are on standby to meet looming electricity shortfalls at short notice, for example if supply is low just as people arrive home in the evening and put on their kettles.

The Government has now decided to set a target of procuring 5.4 gigawatts of capacity for this market in 2022-2023. 

This is higher than the target of 4.7 gigawatts recommended by National Grid ESO, the body tasked with balancing electricity supply and demand. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/25/electricity-capacity-boosted-amid-fears-war-ukraine-will-spark/