The Alternative Green Energy Thread

JKenH

Cheaper green energy won’t cut bills for a decade

But costs are expected to continue to rise even if gas and renewable electricity prices drop, as consumers face paying extra green levies into the 2030s, when the Government hopes to have enough offshore wind power to supply every home in the UK.

The Government’s climate change committee (CCC) says costs will rise over the next decade as consumers pay for historic investment in low-carbon infrastructure.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environment/2021/08/06/cheaper-green-energy-wont-cut-bills-decade/

JKenH

'Code red for humanity': Paris 1.5C climate goal set to be breached within two decades

Quite dramatic reporting from the Telegraph today. Then towards the bottom of the article a quote from one of the authors of the IPCC report behind the headlines. 

Professor Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the Met Office Hadley Centre, and a contributing author to the report, said: “1.5C global warming is not a physical threshold when catastrophic impacts will suddenly kick in, as it is often portrayed. It’s an indication of where the risks start to become substantial.

Like the speed limit on a motorway, staying below it is not perfectly safe and exceeding it does not immediately lead to calamity, but the risks do increase if the limit is passed.”

JKenH

CO2 Can Directly Impact Extreme Weather, Research Suggests

I have always been a little sceptical about attributing the significant changes observed in our weather in the last decade to the rise in global temperature which has been minimal. In fact there has been a lot of debate about how much temperatures have actually risen since the turn of the century but what we do know is that CO2 levels have risen and so apparently has the incidence of extreme weather events.

What if we are looking at the wrong mechanism? What if it is CO2 that is itself the problem rather than the small temperature rise that is causing the increased incidence of extreme weather as is suggested by this article from 2017. 

In the study, the researchers investigated what would happen to the climate system under a range of possible carbon dioxide levels, assuming the average global temperature remained steady. They chose the 1.5-degree target—the world’s most ambitious goal—as a reference point.

The scientists ran a series of model simulations using a range of CO2 concentrations consistent with 1.5 degrees of warming. The effect on extreme climate events was striking. Even though average global temperatures stayed the same, higher CO2 concentrations caused a significant increase in extreme heat and precipitation events in certain regions around the world.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/co2-can-directly-impact-extreme-weather-research-suggests/

JKenH

U.S. calls on OPEC and its allies to pump more oil

Biden later told reporters on Wednesday that the United States had made clear to OPEC that "the production cuts made during the pandemic should be reversed" as the global economy recovers "in order to lower prices for consumers."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-call-opec-its-allies-increase-oil-production-cnbc-2021-08-11/

Edit: interesting take on this by the BBC. 

White House urges action on oil as gasoline prices rise

No mention of CO2 or how this conflicts with IPCC6. It’s as though it is justifiable to increase oil production to keep prices down. (Remember how much bad press the oil companies get for producing oil and now we have the POTUS asking them to pump more.)

My opinion: is it not better to just let prices rise - the effect would be the same as a carbon tax? It may help to drive people to electric cars. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58177675

QrizB

JKenH said:

My opinion: is it not better to just let prices rise - the effect would be the same as a carbon tax? It may help to drive people to electric cars.

This would be my preferred outcome, too. Oil was $80/bbl in recent memory, I would not object if it went that way again and stayed there.

Let's not forget that low oil prices don't just help large consumers, they also harm producers - several of whom are US bogeymen.

JKenH

Global electricity demand is growing faster than renewables, driving strong increase in generation from fossil fuels

Sometimes one gets the feeling we are p***ing into the wind with our efforts to clean up our own emissions while Asia continues to build out coal plants. 

In the pathway set out in IEA’s recent Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050, nearly three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 take place in the electricity sector. To achieve this decline, the pathway calls for coal-fired electricity generation to fall by more than 6% a year. 

However, coal-fired electricity generation is set to increase by almost 5% this year and by a further 3% in 2022, potentially reaching an all-time high, according to the Electricity Market Report.

https://www.iea.org/news/global-electricity-demand-is-growing-faster-than-renewables-driving-strong-increase-in-generation-from-fossil-fuels

Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a report.

The investments in one of the most environmentally damaging sources of energy could generate a total of 300 gigawatts of energy – enough to power the UK more than three times over – despite calls from climate experts at the UN for all new coal plants to be cancelled.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/five-asian-countries-80-percent-new-coal-power-investment?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

JKenH

Soaring demand for the world’s least-liked commodity sees thermal coal prices jump 106% this year

“We expect that the share of coal in energy generation will decline driven by the energy transition agenda, however this will have a rather longer-term impact on the market. In the medium-term demand for coal in emerging markets with less strict environmental agenda, in particular in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, where coal-fired power dominates generation, is expected to rise,” Buchneva said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/coal-prices-the-worlds-least-liked-commodity-sees-remarkable-rally.html

JKenH

Net zero switch threatens new oil shock, warns top economist

The vast expense of ending global warming will trigger a blow to the world economy that is as damaging as the 1974 oil shock, a top international economist has warned.

A scramble to cut carbon emissions is likely to send energy prices rocketing and hold back living standards for years to come, Jean Pisani-Ferry said in a report published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/19/net-zero-switch-threatens-new-oil-shock-warns-top-economist/

JKenH

Top four highlights of Elon Musk’s Tesla AI Day

Not really green energy (although it relates to FSD in Tesla cars) but maybe of interest to the Tesla enthusiasts among us.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/19/top-five-highlights-of-elon-musks-tesla-ai-day/

JKenH

Record electricity imports risk Britain’s energy security

Record imports mean that the UK is increasingly dependent on international market conditions and the energy policies of other countries. The UK also has no future guarantee of the carbon intensity of what it imports. Belgium says it will phase out nuclear by 2025 and has called for investment in gas, which has 40 times the carbon intensity of nuclear and wind, to partly replace that lost capacity. Britain also imports power from the Netherlands, which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, including coal, for its electricity supply.

https://www.niauk.org/media-centre/press-releases/record-electricity-imports-risk-britains-energy-security/

I noticed today that electricity imports were in excess of 20% of our consumption this morning.