The Alternative Green Energy Thread

JKenH

At the start of March Britain experienced its longest spell of low wind output in more than a decade.  

Article addressing the enormity of the challenge we face in dealing with prolonged spells of low wind without natural gas as back up.

Between the 26th of February and the 8th of March the capacity factor[1] of the national wind fleet did not go above 20%.  Its average over these 11 days was just 11%, less than a quarter of their average in the month either side.

The lull in March saw a deficit of over 10 GW of wind capacity compared to the surrounding weeks, and some 2,300 GWh of energy.  In comparison, the UK’s largest storage facility – the Dinorwig pumped hydro plant in North Wales – stores just 9 GWh.  Battery storage systems are ideal for providing peak power, but their duration (and total energy storage) is limited. Over 10,000 of the world’s largest battery storage systems would be needed to cover the shortfall, occupying a space the size of Liverpool city.[2]

https://reports.electricinsights.co.uk/q1-2021/when-the-wind-goes-gas-fills-in-the-gap/

QrizB

Judging by the charts at Gridwatch, Q2 looks to have been rather poor for wind, too. This goes some way towards explaining the persistently high unit rates on Agile Octopus (no, I'm not on that tariff but my current fix expires in September so I've been keeping an eye on it).

JKenH

QrizB said:

Judging by the charts at Gridwatch, Q2 looks to have been rather poor for wind, too. This goes some way towards explaining the persistently high unit rates on Agile Octopus (no, I'm not on that tariff but my current fix expires in September so I've been keeping an eye on it).

Average wholesale prices in the second quarter of 2021 were £74.78/MWh compared with £40.52 in 2017, £50.53 in 2018, £41.20 in 2019 (and an exceptional £24.76 in 2020). 

Wind generation averaged 5.22 MW in Q2 2021, compared to 4.26 in 2017, 4.35 in 2018, 5.16 in 2019, 5.74 in 2020. 

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=3-months&start=2021-04-01&&_k=ryetl6

edit: CO2 emissions in Q2 2021 were 182g/kWh compared to 199 in Q2 2017, 197 in 2018, 192 in 2019 and 151 in 2020.

JKenH

New hydrogen power plant in Keadby.

Equinor is investing in three power plant projects in the UK that will either wholly or in part utilise hydrogen and carbon capture storage. The most ambitious is arguably the Keadby power station that it is developing with UK energy company SSE, which aims to be the first large-scale 100 per cent hydrogen-fuelled power station.

The cost of hydrogen, for now, means that initial plans are for the Keadby plant to increase operations when electricity costs are higher, such as when solar and wind generation is lower or when demand is peaking.

https://www.ft.com/content/84be9279-f287-4e00-86b3-5bd264e52c79

JKenH

Looming loss piles pressure on turbine maker Siemens Gamesa

Siemens Gamesa has lost almost a third of its market value so far this year, extending losses that began in January with a sector-wide fall in renewable energy stocks. At current share prices, the remaining 33% stake would cost Siemens Energy around 5 billion euros ($5.9 billion).

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/siemens-gamesa-slumps-on-lowering-fiscal-guidance-2558827

Clean energy stocks are as crowded as tech before dotcom crash, says MSCI

“I think we’re 100 per cent in a green bubble,” Gordon Johnson, chief executive of GLJ Research, said the same month. “Pretty much every solar company I cover, their numbers got worse and the stock, like, tripled . . . This is not normal.”

https://www.ft.com/content/74baff9a-bce6-49a5-b7f5-7cbf84ac32c6

Just a couple of stories about investing in renewables. 

The Orsted shares I bought last year had a good run then came back down to earth.

ABrass

JKenH said:

New hydrogen power plant in Keadby.

Equinor is investing in three power plant projects in the UK that will either wholly or in part utilise hydrogen and carbon capture storage. The most ambitious is arguably the Keadby power station that it is developing with UK energy company SSE, which aims to be the first large-scale 100 per cent hydrogen-fuelled power station.

The cost of hydrogen, for now, means that initial plans are for the Keadby plant to increase operations when electricity costs are higher, such as when solar and wind generation is lower or when demand is peaking.

https://www.ft.com/content/84be9279-f287-4e00-86b3-5bd264e52c79

A bit more detail: it's a 900MW plant (1800MW thermal) and they're aiming to have it built by 2030, although it's at an early stage of the design/approval process.

JKenH

Putin's gas showdown with Europe risks an epic winter fuel crisis

Further electricity price rises in store with a migration perhaps to coal and attendant increases in CO2 as we run out of natural gas. I wouldn’t want to be on Agile if this happens.

Vladimir Putin is playing geopolitical hardball. He is quietly orchestrating a European gas supply crisis by restricting pipeline flows.

Britain will be caught in the cross-fire. As of this week, UK stocks of natural gas were critically low at 29pc of capacity, compared to 89pc at this point last year, or 52pc in the more normal year of 2019. 

European gas prices have spiralled to a 13-year high of $10 per million BTU (British thermal units). They could go much higher if there is a panic scramble for supplies when the first frost arrives.

Wholesale gas prices in the UK reached a record 93.22 pence per therm in early July. The public is for now shielded from this price shock. Wait until November.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/07/21/putins-gas-showdown-europe-risks-epic-winter-fuel-crisis/

JKenH

At noon yesterday wind was generating less than 0.5GW and over the whole day met just 2.3% of our electricity needs. Fortunately solar saved the day (with more than a little help from imports) but once the sun went down renewables were meeting just 2% of demand. 

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2021-07-
21&&_k=v429yk

Edit: things aren’t improving today with wind averaging just 0.4GW.


https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2021-07-22&&_k=l3zd9f

QrizB

JKenH said:

At noon yesterday wind was generating less than 0.5GW and over the whole day met just 2.3% of our electricity needs. Fortunately solar saved the day (with more than a little help from imports) but once the sun went down renewables were meeting just 2% of demand.

That's not uncommon, though. Long settled spells in the UK are usually due to a high pressure area sat over us, which results in clear skies and good sunshine but light winds. Here's this morning's surface pressure chart:

JKenH

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

At noon yesterday wind was generating less than 0.5GW and over the whole day met just 2.3% of our electricity needs. Fortunately solar saved the day (with more than a little help from imports) but once the sun went down renewables were meeting just 2% of demand.

That's not uncommon, though. Long settled spells in the UK are usually due to a high pressure area sat over us, which results in clear skies and good sunshine but light winds. Here's this morning's surface pressure chart:

You are quite right - it is not uncommon but if renewables can only generate 2.5% of our needs over a period of 24hours and then for several more days in a row then even if we double or quadruple the number of wind turbines it isn’t going to help. We still would need 90% of our demand (potentially for a week or longer) met by other sources or 60% to replace the role played by natural gas. In an earlier comment on this page I quoted a claim that we would need the equivalent of  10,000 of the worlds largest batteries to deal with the lull in March this year. Grid connected EVs might work over night but not for several days as eventually they would need to be charged. 

And this is with the present level of demand. What happens when there are 30m EVs to charge and 20m electrical central heating systems to power from 0.4GW or even 0.8 or 1.6GW (if we double or quadruple our current capacity) of wind during these not uncommon calm spells?

And what will be the cost to the consumer?