The Alternative Green Energy Thread

joefizz

ABrass said:

Which means if you ran the nuclear plants at s deliberately lower CF you'd be able to ramp up and down. It'd still cost as much to run the plants as going full tilt though. It's an interesting technical capability but it seems like it won't be economical given the high cost of nuclear electricity.

Some of my old classmates went on to work in the Nuclear industry and I got the opportunity to sit down with a couple of their US equivalent a decade or so ago. The US ones said they had tendered out software redevelopment something like 3 times in 20 odd years. Each time they got to trials and didnt bother, so  back then (no reason to think its any different now), most were running on old cobol, fortran etc code.

I once was on a course in London with a lot of developers from a well known aeronautics company. We went out for dinner and drinks in Covent Garden and after kicking out time we found ourselves sitting in the hotel bar. I asked did they come over on a company plane and most said they had taken the train or flew with an airline which didnt use their planes.
I asked why this was and they said they could only test the software to the best of their ability.... ...and looking around at peed up passed out engineers, they had a point.

With the likes of Tesla that once in a million 'this should not occur' error will result in running over a pedestrian or veering across a road in Germany taking out a family.
Not really something you would like to contemplate with nuclear... ...thats probably the limiting factor for any change to use more than the technical feasibility of it all.

Pile_o_stone

It looks like we've ruled out nuclear and we obviously cant continue with fossil fuels much longer. It would appear that this "The Alternative to Green Energy" thread has run its course?

JKenH

I got my smart meter fitted yesterday by Bulb despite another TOU tariff provider saying I couldn’t have one here. We’ll see over the next few days how it goes. Interestingly, so far I still appear to be on the same E7 tariff.

Anyway during the course of reading about smart meters and E& I came across this report from Citizens advice on the value of time of use tariffs. It is however from July2017.

Summary report:
https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/Global/CitizensAdvice/Energy/Citizens%20Advice%20summary%20of%20the%20value%20of%20time%20of%20use%20tariffs.pdf

full report: 
https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/Global/CitizensAdvice/Energy/The%20Value%20of%20TOU%20Tariffs%20in%20GB%20-%20Volume%20I.pdf

JKenH

It seems that it is not only fossil fuels that are being impacted by energy price falls.

Although the scale of the write downs are a fraction of the tens of billions written off in recent weeks by the oil and gas industry, including in Australia –  faced with the realisation that the clean energy transition is real, inevitable and (should be) accelerating – the impact on wind and solar assets nevertheless is a concern to investors.

Renewable energy investors have already been hit by the impact of grid congestion problems and commissioning delays, including UK-based John Laing, which is now trying to sell its Australian assets, Italy’s Enel Green Power (Bungala solar), France’s Neoen (Bulgana wind), and UK-based Foresight Group. Contractors local and international have also been hit badly by cost-overruns and damages claims over connection delays.

AGL added its name to the list on Thursday with the release of its annual results, which reflected an overall fall in profits due to declining prices, and big slump in forecast earnings to just half of its year ago figure.

Scandinavia is also suffering with with Vattenfall's wind farms in Denmark and Sweden booking a SEK 1.5 billion €150 million impairment and Norwegian utility Statkraft has announced that it is no longer interested in building more wind capacity in Norway.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/agl-joins-growing-list-of-investors-hit-by-write-downs-on-wind-and-solar-assets-89705/

Although these impairments are small beer compared to those suffered by fossil fuel power generators the fall in energy prices is having a significant effect on commercial wind and solar generation and investment. The main impact is on the older less efficient installations but the Statkraft announcement reflects “the write-down is not a result of a fast price dip but rather is the consequence of falling prices over a longer period” and “ the asset values will not be quickly restored in the event of a quick price surge”.

https://energywatch.eu/EnergyNews/Renewables/article12297583.ece

JKenH

I hadn’t realised just how vulnerable solar panels were to hailstones.
UK developer takes write-down after another storm hits Oakey 2 solar farm

https://reneweconomy.com.au/uk-developer-takes-write-down-after-another-storm-hits-oakey-2-solar-farm-32373/

https://ramblingsdc.net/SolarHail.html

ABrass

JKenH said:

I hadn’t realised just how vulnerable solar panels were to hailstones.
UK developer takes write-down after another storm hits Oakey 2 solar farm

https://reneweconomy.com.au/uk-developer-takes-write-down-after-another-storm-hits-oakey-2-solar-farm-32373/

https://ramblingsdc.net/SolarHail.html

The Oakley one seems to be due to wind damage(http://www.wattclarity.com.au/articles/2020/06/looking-gloomy-at-oakey2sf-again/) , but the hail stone link is pretty interesting

joefizz

JKenH said:

Although these impairments are small beer compared to those suffered by fossil fuel power generators the fall in energy prices is having a significant effect on commercial wind and solar generation and investment.

The next 18 months to 2 years are going to be interesting from a consolidation in the energy industry point of view. The traditional oil companies have written a lot down and cut dividends but have also went cap in hand for long term low interest loans due to the low oil prices. Cuts in investment (I mentioned this last year) will mean higher prices in oil, soon, although I dont rule out another quick drop in the very short term first. That will give oil companies a lot more free cash to snap up renewables companies who will be struggling with the lag.
Ive mentioned before that in say 10 years time most of the traditional oil companies (the smart ones who got out of fracking, see warren buffet dumping a load of fracking company shares last week) will be 'energy' companies with the lead in renewables.

DiggerUK

JKenH said:

I hadn’t realised just how vulnerable solar panels were to hailstones.
UK developer takes write-down after another storm hits Oakey 2 solar farm

https://reneweconomy.com.au/uk-developer-takes-write-down-after-another-storm-hits-oakey-2-solar-farm-32373/

https://ramblingsdc.net/SolarHail.html

Does this kind of damage happen much in the UK, I can appreciate damage from high winds being a problem, or even items flying through the air because of high winds, but this doesn't seem much of a problem here. At least not one you hear often..._ 

Pile_o_stone

Dounreay site available for reuse in the year 2333

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-53848766

"The site of a Scottish nuclear power facility should be available for other uses in 313 years' time, according to a new report.

Dounreay, near Thurso, was the UK site for the development of fast reactor research from 1955 to 1994.

The facility on the north Caithness coast is in the process of being closed down, demolished and cleaned up.

However, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority said it would be 2333 before the 148-acre site is safe for reuse.

The date forms part of the authority's newly-published draft strategy.

A target date has also been set for the clean-up of a highly contaminated area called the Shaft.

Built in the 1950s, it plunges 65.4m (214.5ft) below ground.

Radioactive waste was disposed there from 1959 to 1977, when an explosion ended the practice.

Waste is to be removed from the Shaft by 2029, according to the NDA report."

Contrast his with the removal of a solar or wind farm, where they would simply dig out the concrete foundations and any access roads (and use as hardcore in other developments) and backfill with top soil. How anyone still thinks that nuclear is a good idea is beyond me.

JKenH

JKenH said:

It seems that it is not only fossil fuels that are being impacted by energy price falls.

Although the scale of the write downs are a fraction of the tens of billions written off in recent weeks by the oil and gas industry, including in Australia –  faced with the realisation that the clean energy transition is real, inevitable and (should be) accelerating – the impact on wind and solar assets nevertheless is a concern to investors.

Renewable energy investors have already been hit by the impact of grid congestion problems and commissioning delays, including UK-based John Laing, which is now trying to sell its Australian assets, Italy’s Enel Green Power (Bungala solar), France’s Neoen (Bulgana wind), and UK-based Foresight Group. Contractors local and international have also been hit badly by cost-overruns and damages claims over connection delays.

AGL added its name to the list on Thursday with the release of its annual results, which reflected an overall fall in profits due to declining prices, and big slump in forecast earnings to just half of its year ago figure.

Scandinavia is also suffering with with Vattenfall's wind farms in Denmark and Sweden booking a SEK 1.5 billion €150 million impairment and Norwegian utility Statkraft has announced that it is no longer interested in building more wind capacity in Norway.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/agl-joins-growing-list-of-investors-hit-by-write-downs-on-wind-and-solar-assets-89705/

Although these impairments are small beer compared to those suffered by fossil fuel power generators the fall in energy prices is having a significant effect on commercial wind and solar generation and investment. The main impact is on the older less efficient installations but the Statkraft announcement reflects “the write-down is not a result of a fast price dip but rather is the consequence of falling prices over a longer period” and “ the asset values will not be quickly restored in the event of a quick price surge”.

https://energywatch.eu/EnergyNews/Renewables/article12297583.ece

Not what I was expecting.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/13/offshore-wind-energy-investment-quadruples-despite-covid-19-slump