The Alternative Green Energy Thread

QrizB

paul991 said:

its so can export to europe

We're burning coal when we're importing the most, not when we're importing the least, although I see from Gridwatch that the French interconnector has been exporting at 3GW nearly-continuously all week.

1961Nick

QrizB said:

paul991 said:

its so can export to europe

We're burning coal when we're importing the most, not when we're importing the least, although I see from Gridwatch that the French interconnector has been exporting at 3GW nearly-continuously all week.

I read that there were several French nukes offline at the moment & that's the reason for the recent almost continuous 3GW export to France. It's lucky we didn't take umbridge when Macron threatened to turn the switch off over Brexit.

ed110220

1961Nick said:

QrizB said:

paul991 said:

its so can export to europe

We're burning coal when we're importing the most, not when we're importing the least, although I see from Gridwatch that the French interconnector has been exporting at 3GW nearly-continuously all week.

I read that there were several French nukes offline at the moment & that's the reason for the recent almost continuous 3GW export to France. It's lucky we didn't take umbridge when Macron threatened to turn the switch off over Brexit.

Yeah they're having real problems with them at the moment. About half were offline for planned and unplanned maintenance the other month, several after corrosion problems were found in one so they had to check others of the same or a similar design and the same thing has turned up in at least some of them.

Makes you perhaps question the wisdom of planning to build 4 reactors of a design based on the corrosion affected reactors (Hinkley and Sizewell). If they're built we could have a situation where 4 of our 5 remaining reactors (the other being Sizewell could be closed if a similar systemic fault were to be found in them.

paul991

just wonder if Sizewell will be obsolete when it is  completed and what is the wisdom of having a  French govt owned company running our infrastructure

QrizB

paul991 said:

just wonder if Sizewell will be obsolete when it is completed ...

Unlikely.

paul991 said:

... what is the wisdom of having a  French govt owned company running our infrastructure

As opposed to any of the other US / Spanish / Chinese / internationally-owned companies?

JKenH

Greta Thunberg: It's time to overthrow the West's oppressive and racist capitalist system

So far I’ve only seen this in the Telegraph. I’m not passing comment, just reporting what’s been reported.

The 19-year-old Swedish activist has announced that as well as tackling her usual area of climate action and awareness-spreading, she has now thrown her weight behind defeating the West’s “oppressive” capitalist system.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/02/greta-thunberg-time-overthrow-wests-oppressive-racist-capitalist/

JKenH

Another low-wind Capacity Market Notice with more tightness expected

Wind output on Monday was even lower than during last week’s CMN when output fell below 3 GW, dropping to just 249 MW – less than 1% of the installed capacity.

https://watt-logic.com/2022/11/29/capacity-market-notice-and-dfs/

Following on from the new records set a few weeks ago for wind generation, is this a new record low? 

Contrast this reality with the view from the renewables lobby.

Here’s how the UK power sector could ditch 99% of natural gas by 2030

Over the next four years, the UK has sufficient wind and solar capacity planned and under way to put it on track for a 2030 clean power target, if all these projects are approved and constructed. 

To phase out gas by 2030, Ember’s model shows that the UK will need to add 90 GW of wind and solar capacity, alongside investment into the transmission grid. In March, Electrek reported that the total pipeline of UK offshore wind projects alone had reached 86 gigawatts.

https://electrek.co/2022/09/26/uk-power-natural-gas/

Seriously? No mention of storage, just more 90 GW of renewable capacity and a better transmission grid will solve our problems. 

Yesterday wind and solar contributed less than 5% of our generation and gas 60%. So according to Ember all we need to do is add another 90 GW of capacity. Yes at the postulated annual CFs the industry uses that might work but what about the days when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine? Yes you are bored with hearing this from me but sometimes we need a reality check against this endless optimism peddled by the the renewables lobby. 

https://www.electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2022-11-29&&_k=c208os

The crunch  NG ESO was feeling (and the £1000+/MWh prices) yesterday was about shortage of renewable generation not shortage of gas. Thank heavens we still had gas (and a bit of coal left over) to see us through. 

2nd_time_buyer

JKenH said:

Another low-wind Capacity Market Notice with more tightness expected

Wind output on Monday was even lower than during last week’s CMN when output fell below 3 GW, dropping to just 249 MW – less than 1% of the installed capacity.

https://watt-logic.com/2022/11/29/capacity-market-notice-and-dfs/

Following on from the new records set a few weeks ago for wind generation, is this a new record low? 

Contrast this reality with the view from the renewables lobby.

Here’s how the UK power sector could ditch 99% of natural gas by 2030

Over the next four years, the UK has sufficient wind and solar capacity planned and under way to put it on track for a 2030 clean power target, if all these projects are approved and constructed. 

To phase out gas by 2030, Ember’s model shows that the UK will need to add 90 GW of wind and solar capacity, alongside investment into the transmission grid. In March, Electrek reported that the total pipeline of UK offshore wind projects alone had reached 86 gigawatts.

https://electrek.co/2022/09/26/uk-power-natural-gas/

Seriously? No mention of storage, just more 90 GW of renewable capacity and a better transmission grid will solve our problems. 

Yesterday wind and solar contributed less than 5% of our generation and gas 60%. So according to Ember all we need to do is add another 90 GW of capacity. Yes at the postulated annual CFs the industry uses that might work but what about the days when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine? Yes you are bored with hearing this from me but sometimes we need a reality check against this endless optimism peddled by the the renewables lobby. 

https://www.electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2022-11-29&&_k=c208os

The crunch  NG ESO was feeling (and the £1000+/MWh prices) yesterday was about shortage of renewable generation not shortage of gas. Thank heavens we still had gas (and a bit of coal left over) to see us through. 

How about:

- time of use tariffs shifting demand

- more interconnects over a greater geographic area (e.g. Iceland, Morocco)
- excess used to generate hydrogen

- and yes batteries and over supply

There will be periods when the wind does not blow but as the value of continuity increases so will the value of the measures above to mitigate it. We are not talking nuclear plants with >15 years to completion. All the measures above are relatively quick to implement. Let's get the generation sorted first the rest will follow "if you build it, they will come"

michaels

90GW more is 4.5x current capacity - and current plus nuclear is already 100% of demand at some points.

So basically we are looking at moments where supply is 5x demand and days where supply is 3 x demand.  Not sure what average spill would be but say it is 50% under CfD that means that each used unit of generation costs double the CfD - or be it this might be around 10p pr kwh which doesn't sound too bad.

It also means there would be an awful lot of 'free but intermittent' electricity.  Not sure how that impacts the economics of short and medium term storage.

Problem seems to be that you end up driving so much gas out of the market that the fixed cost of gas generation skyrockets.
(Assuming you still need just as much capacity for those wind free periods - perhaps a bit less because intraday storage probably smooths the day/night but more EVs and Heat Pumps offsets this; imports from Africa etc might help but a lot of nearby Europe might see similar renewals generation as us so won't be able to make up the shortfall)

QrizB

Part of the answewr is down to where the extra wind will go - on other parts of the UK's EEZ.

By increasing the geographical diversity of offshore wind farms, the number days each year when all the wind is simultaneously becalmed will decrease.

I think I saw a Greg Jackson tweet illustrating this, but can't find it to share right now