where are interest rates really heading?

Generali

chriseast wrote: »

I'll share the risk of flaming with you by pretty much agreeing with all of the above, though if Santa is reading this, can I also have some big house price falls in the South West, please?

Is Scotland a Celtic nation? Not sure about falls generally up there outside of the main cities. Prices are still very low compared with England. Can't find a house & land similar to the one we sold in March for double the price in Somerset.

My belief is that all of Southern England and London will be starting to show falls by then, but only gently.

Scotland is a Celtic nation. Celtic means on the fringes or edges I think.

granville_2

chriseast wrote: »

Common sense says rates will remain the same or go up, however the cynic in me says that they will reduce in December or January in a desperate and foolish attempt to prop up a failing economy and increase the 'feel good' factor.

yep, the UK will continue to gorge on the teat of cheap-ish credit.

and then attempt to blame everybody else when it all goes pear shaped.

:mad:

Nenen

chriseast wrote: »

I'll share the risk of flaming with you by pretty much agreeing with all of the above, though if Santa is reading this, can I also have some big house price falls in the South West, please?

I've been really, really good all year Santa... so please can we have some hefty house price drops in East Anglia too?

:snow_laug :xmastree: :xmastree: :xmastree: :xmastree: :xmastree: :xmastree: :xmastree: :snow_grin

ManAtHome

fimonkey wrote: »

I propose the new PI is called 'The Primark Price Index'

LOL - love it (and I'm a founder member of the "Cheese and Plasma Index" club...).

Wouldn't work though would it - can you imagine the FT running the headline "pants down 4% and cucumbers up 12%"..?

[edit] boo hiss, nyah nyah etc - why does the quotey thing kernadgered..?

[edit2] hah/doh!

Zammo

They will cut and trash the pound.

Guy_Montag

Generali wrote: »

My belief is that all of Southern England and London will be starting to show falls by then, but only gently.

Scotland is a Celtic nation. Celtic means on the fringes or edges I think.

Celtic refers to the peoples of the area - Celts.

At one stage Celts covered most of Western Europe - Gauls in what is now France; Belgae in Belguim; Picts in what is now Scotland; Scots in Ulster etc. As far afield as Turkey, Ukraine & Spain. Top trivia - the Parisii who gave there name to Paris, were also found in Yorkshire.

In time they were pushed out or taken over* by the likes of the Franks (a germanic people) & the Angles, Saxons, Danes & Jutes in England, leaving pockets in Ireland, Wales, Scotland, Brittany, Corwall.

Recently these (normally excluding Brittany & Corwall) have become known as Celtic fringe mainly mainly as an easy way to group all non-English parts of the British Isles into one set.


What do you mean this is a forum about house prices?:rolleyes:

free4440273

Just some thoughts: BofE has never really seemed concerned about inflation; interest rate cut in December on the agenda, more rate cuts (at least two) to follow in 2008; Sterling crisis coming up; Subprime problems to worsen (we have our own equivalent problem here); the unfolding of the yen carry-trade to occur very quickly; this currency crisis to precipitate a stock market crash (watch currencies and bonds for clues about where the stock market is actually headed); oil to reach $120 in 2008 (more inflation); Chinese and Hong Markets are massively overpriced: when (if) investors flee, then this also has potential for a massive drop in the Western indices. Just my

Generali

Some friendly disagreement:

free4440273 wrote: »

Just some thoughts: BofE has never really seemed concerned about inflation;

In 10 years CPI (MPC's target) has only once been outside the targeted range. RPI has been consistantly lower since BoE independance than at almost any time during the 1980s IIRC.

free4440273 wrote: »

Sterling crisis coming up;

Maybe. That's an interesting one. What's sterling going to depreciate quickly against exactly? USD? Shouldn't think so. Euro? Capital mkts over there are starting to have a lot of problems with valuing Mediteranean countries' government debt. That'll get worse as Spain goes into what could well be a very nasty recession. Yen? Fine. The Yen's undervalued as it is. Renimbi? Ditto. Other currencies? Who cares!

free4440273 wrote: »

Subprime problems to worsen

The worst bit of that should be 1st 6 months of 2008.

free4440273 wrote: »

the unfolding of the yen carry-trade to occur very quickly;

Not a good time to be holding New Zealand dollars then!

free4440273 wrote: »

this currency crisis to precipitate a stock market crash (watch currencies and bonds for clues about where the stock market is actually headed);

What currency crisis?

free4440273 wrote: »

oil to reach $120 in 2008 (more inflation);

I buy litres of petrol in £s (up about 5% YoY) not barrels of oil in $.

Interesting points. I'm winding you up to some extent but there is a very strong counter-arguement to yours.

free4440273

^^I didn't even get a 'Thanks': typical:rotfl:

Generali

You got 2!