Crystal ball time... Whether to keep 100k+ money in £ or change to Euros

a_silver_lining

Hi,

I completed the sale of my property yesterday and so am presently sat on 100k+

I have moved to Ireland an am intending to buy here in two years when my partner's job is made permanent. She will know at the end of the school year if that is happening.

In the meantime, I am trying to work out if it is better for me to transfer the money now, or keep in in £.

I realise this is crystal ball stuff. My gut feeling is to hold it in £ as by the time some kind of action happens around Brexit the two years may give the £ time to stabilise and recover slightly. I can also gain a small amount of interest 1-1.5% on the money in the uk, and nothing in Ireland from what I can find.

I'm not on a huge salary, so every 0.01% of a rise in the £ to Euro is £1000, a huge amount for me.

Anyone have any suggestions?

Thank you in advance

MaxiRobriguez

I think you already know what the answers will be.

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, GBP will decrease further still, and potentially by quite a bit.

In the event of remain, GBP will likely recover quickly to levels just under where it was before the 2016 referendum.

In the event of a deal Brexit, GBP will likely increase, but not rapidly or to the same extent as remain scenario, and within the course of 2 years may begin to increase further or fall again based on the outcome of the transition period/withdrawal and where FTA's look to be headed.

I think a no-deal exit is incredibly unlikely given that even in a shook up Parliament with a Tory majority, there's still not going to be the numbers for it, but, stranger things have happened.

Can you move half and hedge your bets?

surreysaver

I was going to suggest 50/50. I am be no means knowledgeable on this subject, but diversification might be key, and the one that goes down should balance the one that goes up.

eskbanker

a_silver_lining wrote: »

every 0.01% of a rise in the £ to Euro is £1000, a huge amount for me.

No, every 0.01% change in the rate would only be £10....

[Deleted User]

From a speculative pov, I would recommend moving all your money to Ireland. Now would be a good time to do it. £ has already recovered from E1.11 to E1.16 on the likelihood of a deal, but there will be plenty more twists in the road and every chance that UK will be staring at a cliff-edge again in a year's time.
The 2016 referendum caused the biggest one day-fall of a free-floating major currency ever, and I'd much rather be protected against the downside from here. Historically, £ has been depreciating for a hundred years.

From a zen perspective, you (and your partner) will also be happier when you are fully committed. Don't be there half-hearted!

I would recommend the same to you if you had £10 million to transfer, in which case every 0.01% movement between currencies really would be worth £1000.

Sailtheworld

Assuming the markets are somewhat efficient £100k is worth (@ €1.16) €116k today. If that was sufficient for my needs and I would be distraught to get less I'd make the exchange today. One advantage of doing it today is that you don't have to spend anymore time thinking about it.

If you would like more Euros and think there's a chance Sterling will strengthen, don't mind taking a chance it'll go the other way and don't mind spending mental effort on it then either wait until the rate improves or buy in tranches. Every cent improvement / decline in the rate is worth €1000. Of course you'd be glad to get that but how would losing that work out for you?

george4064

I would do half and half, good luck.

Albermarle

The only sure thing you know is that if you leave it in Pounds it will earn more interest .
In this case I would be tempted to leave more than 50% in Sterling .Or at least as much as possible without having to pay tax on the interest,
If your future in Ireland starts to look more permanent then gradually move more across.