Predictions for the next 2 years

RelievedSheff

Malthusian wrote: »

For a family of very rich Mormons with about ten kids? It's got like twelve bedrooms. A hotel that some people were living in while they restored the hotel is still a hotel.

It was a hotel, it became a dump, some property developers lived in it while they restored it, now they're flipping it and it is going to be a hotel and wedding venue again, which is why Rightmove is selling it as such.

Not at all. They are a normal working family. He is currently fitting boilers in the new homes just up the road at Shireoaks. There are currently seven of them and a couple of dogs living in the house and it very much feels a welcoming family home not at all like a hotel or a pub as it once was.

They are selling it as a family home. What the purchasers decide to do with it is very much up to them.

Malthusian

RelievedSheff wrote: »

Not at all. They are a normal working family.

I didn't say they were a family of rich Mormons. I said that's what they're looking to sell to. Normal working families don't have seven empty bedrooms (assuming he and the missus share a bed). They can't sell it to people like them, because people like them were looking for a building project, and it's no longer a building project.

I have no doubt that it was great for them living in a mansion while they restored the place, it sounds fun if that's what you're good at. But when you're trying to sell it to somebody else, as a completed property rather than a building project, the equation is completely different.

There's not many families looking to buy a 13-bedroom house so they can re-enact The Shining.

They are selling it as a family home.

Rightmove are selling it as a hotel sans planning permission.

Green_Bear

Malthusian wrote: »

I didn't say they were a family of rich Mormons. I said that's what they're looking to sell to. Normal working families don't have seven empty bedrooms (assuming he and the missus share a bed). They can't sell it to people like them, because people like them were looking for a building project, and it's no longer a building project.

I have no doubt that it was great for them living in a mansion while they restored the place, it sounds fun if that's what you're good at. But when you're trying to sell it to somebody else, as a completed property rather than a building project, the equation is completely different.

There's not many families looking to buy a 13-bedroom house so they can re-enact The Shining.

Rightmove are selling it as a hotel sans planning permission.

Would it not be better to decide for certain if it's going to be a hotel or not before renovating?
Because if it is destined to be a hotel, there will be a whole load of implications (fire doors, fire escapes, reception desk etc) that should be considered.

Green_Bear

My prediction is:
The best time to buy property, is when the Daily Mail is full of amateur landlords with their sad compo faces on.

At the moment, there seem to be a whole lot of amateurs getting suckered into becoming HMO landlords. 'Rent-to-Rent' and other such nonsense. This is going to end in tears in one way or another.

Being an HMO landlord is a brilliant idea, provided you have a time machine that can transport you back to 1995.

What will happen to HMOs if Corbyn wins the election will be interesting. Options could include:

1. Nothing
2. Some kind of right to buy as a leasehold 'co-op'
3. Tenants have right to request a housing association / council take over of the property

If I was a private HMO landlord, I'd be thinking about converting to becoming a proper B&B or guesthouse.

I don't think any of the politicians have really got B&Bs as a target.

triathlon

Well HPC.com now have us all beat, they are all celebrating the massive fall of 0.2% YOY, well worth the two decade wait in the bedsit.

I am seriously not sure whether to laugh my head off at them or feel how tragic it is for them, or both

RelievedSheff

triathlon wrote: »

Well HPC.com now have us all beat, they are all celebrating the massive fall of 0.2% YOY, well worth the two decade wait in the bedsit.

I am seriously not sure whether to laugh my head off at them or feel how tragic it is for them, or both

The article I am just reading has a YOY increase of 0.2%!

They fell 0.2% compared with August prices but not YOY.

lisyloo

triathlon wrote: »

Well HPC.com now have us all beat, they are all celebrating the massive fall of 0.2% YOY, well worth the two decade wait in the bedsit.

I am seriously not sure whether to laugh my head off at them or feel how tragic it is for them, or both

For balance (I’m not on their side) they are probably celebrating what they think is the start of bigger falls.

Also you don’t know what sacrifices they’ve made if any.
They might be able to live with mum and dad quite happily whilst making much better investments.

Personally I think for most the best way to go is repayment mortgage and pension on day 1, but I also think there needs to be balance in discussions. Not all of them will be living in a manky bed sit whilst frittering away their money.

RelievedSheff

The Crashies wont like this article which highlights quite nicely how little of the UK housing market has falling prices.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7526173/Will-property-market-slow-ahead-Brexit.html

triathlon

RelievedSheff wrote: »

The Crashies wont like this article which highlights quite nicely how little of the UK housing market has falling prices.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7526173/Will-property-market-slow-ahead-Brexit.html

When I fell into being a LL accidentally in the late 1990's and 5 years later had my 5th BTL I was ushered to a site called HPC.com from someone who had a bad case of schadenfreude hoping I would come unstuck who took that site as Gospel at the time and is still there, many of you will know him , as he sat in his rental at the age of 33 years old ish, now early 50's and still in rental and sharing today
This flat at worse property market is in most peoples opinions going to hold for the next decade, he will then be in his 60's.

Was it all worth it? what a waste of life

epinjy

Some late night ramblings and predictions (isn't my life fun?):

• Brexit outcome is irrelevant and the worst already fully priced in. Post outcome surge in transactions and prices, regardless of the outcome.
• Headline overall house price rise of 4-5% for 2020, higher in 2021 (7%+)
• London correction is now over. Return to slight real growth in London and south east (3%), larger % growth in further out regions supported by better affordability
• Wildcard: all of above is turbocharged by any political changes that boost transactions, such as stamp duty reduction.
• Noticable decrease in the amount of houses being built next year. HTB extended but wont be enough to counteract the impending supply crunch for a couple of years.

There seems to be a bit of a consensus that because London prices have fallen (very moderately, really), that it now will spread across the country. I think this is a fallacy: London had a massive run up in prices that most of the country still hasn't come close to catching up to several years later. The "slowdown spread" has not/will not translate into falls across other regions (SE excl.) and we are already seeing the slowdown spread out reflected in the current period of low growth. Will be a big case of "blink and you'll miss it" as people look back in a couple of years and see how obvious this will appear.

What I think matters:

• Real wage growth over last couple of years has not fed into house prices yet and affordability is now improved
• Pent-up market activity because of current political nonsense
• Global slowdown will only be minor, but is enough to keep interest rates down
• Maybe? Hostile BTL policies will help to re-balance market more towards home buyer affordability instead of BTL affordability. Will limit growth is less affordable regions (London/SE)