Predictions for the next 2 years

triathlon

Just a little bit of fun:)

What do you expect to see in the housing market in the next couple of years?
I am only raising this question because I have in the past few weeks revised my own estimates. I was expecting with Brexit and the political upheaval we are going through right now that Property prices this year could have began a slight correction over the next two years losing as high as 5-7% in value.

I even posted about it a few times and took the now wrong course of selling two properties as a buffer and holding the rest. I now think come the New Year that property will start slowly at first an up trend in prices that have even a chance of going into YOY double figures if foreign money pours into the UK like I suspect it will.
My prediction is a slow slightly rising 2020 with momentum gathering by the end of the year and YOY by 2021 prices rising 6-9% with my now very worst case scenario at falls no bigger than 2-4% at worst.

Zero_Sum

There's no such thing as 'THE' housing market

Its just a load of small local markets.

You'll probably tell me houses have risen loads over the last few years.
I'll tell you they've been flat since 2008, even to the point of real term reductions after inflation.

RelievedSheff

As above I think the market will continue to be very localised.

Where we have just moved too has seen house prices rise 20% over the last five years whilst where we sold prices had been fairly static with only slight rises over the same period.

FWIW I think that house prices in general will see modest 1-2% increases over the next couple of years.

MaxiRobriguez

Low interest rates and lack of homes will put a floor in any declines which revovle entirely around Brexit. If Brexit doesn't go badly, then house prices may increase slightly. They won't increase a lot, because a low-impact Brexit will increase the pound and reduce the amount of foreign buyers, which will tilt the market back to domestic favour which is limited by what is already high price-to-salary ratios.

The most likely scenario is between 0% and whatever the inflation rate is.

Malthusian

Zero_Sum wrote: »

There's no such thing as 'THE' housing market

Its just a load of small local markets.

There's no such thing as small local markets either, every small local market is just a load of individual houses.

In two years' time house prices will have collapsed 130% due to Brexit and as bricks and mortar will be worthless all houses will be built as silver pyramids and consequently demand for silver will rocket and AG/RealElement47 will be king of the world.

triathlon

You left out all those hppc''s holding 1/100 bitcoin snapping up the whole of the property market ��

edgex

What foreign money buying what?

triathlon

Foreign money buying increasingly cheaper property as the Pound weakens, its already happening

ruperts

Are many foreigners buying residential property outside London and maybe one or two other city centres?

RelievedSheff

ruperts wrote: »

Are many foreigners buying residential property outside London and maybe one or two other city centres?

Friends of ours own this:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71391394.html

All of the interest they have had has been from abroad.

Thrugelmir

As long as there's a market to convert good homes into tiny units. Then prices will rise. If immigration is brought under control then prices may soften a little.