Will the next generation be able to buy their own house?

westernpromise

triathlon wrote: »

I am now reading a new thread on there started by one of their greatest cult members just starting a "sentiment is changing" made up story that he again witnessed.

I went over to have a look at this and found it rather poignant:

I emailed a friend in the city who works for a US bank 4 weeks ago asking about whats going on.. .. No reply yet.

I have this mental picture of the Count sitting waiting expectantly for weeks for a reply to his email. He has ginger hair and a little mangy moustache in one of those angry, slapped-ar5e faces. But he also has this very important friend, see, who lives in London. Imagine that. And this friend must know a lot, because he "works for a US bank" - a true master of the universe...The rarefied circles in which the Count moves! The Count's "friend" gets this email from Northampton saying "whats going on" (sic), tries briefly to remember who this clot even is, then dismisses it, four weeks ago. He carries on with his work in the bank's building services department.

Meanwhile, downstairs, the Count's children play forlornly in the rented garden that will never be theirs. Upstairs, in the cramped boxroom of the tiny house he will never own, the Count drums his forlorn fingers, waits out the weeks for a reply to his email asking "whats going on", and grows older as the crash doesn't come.

RealElement47

triathlon wrote: »

We now have a huge market in the UK where even workers have to rely on housing benefit, something like £30 Billion per year, and with 3 million new non EU immigrants the UK in the next decade many with few skills there is little to zero chance of crashing the rental market

How long can this market manipulation continue? The government can’t afford to continue to prop up the rental markets with this housing benefit boost for much longer.

When they can no longer afford the £30Billion rents will have to fall in,one with what people can afford out of their own pockets.

Sailtheworld

RealElement47 wrote: »

How long can this market manipulation continue? The government can’t afford to continue to prop up the rental markets with this housing benefit boost for much longer.

Renting because fears the market is manipulated and waiting for housing benefit to drop to zero is a wrong-headed approach. For a start you wanted to buy but are renting instead, you have no control over (and might be wrong anyway) about when the manipulation will end so it could be a long wait, and, if rents are being propped up, you know from the outset it's an expensive bet to fund every month.

I think if someone wants to buy it's better to crack on and start paying down a mortgage. It's tried, tested, and 99% of the time works out just fine.

RealElement47

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Renting because fears the market is manipulated and waiting for housing benefit to drop to zero is a wrong-headed approach. For a start you wanted to buy but are renting instead, you have no control over (and might be wrong anyway) about when the manipulation will end so it could be a long wait, and, if rents are being propped up, you know from the outset it's an expensive bet to fund every month.

I think if someone wants to buy it's better to crack on and start paying down a mortgage. It's tried, tested, and 99% of the time works out just fine.

I think most normal people with normal jobs and normal 2.4 kids or so, are quite happy having the government pay their rent with housing benefit, not if but WHEN housing benefit can’t be funded anymore then property prices and rents will crash.

Malthusian

RealElement47 wrote: »

How long can this market manipulation continue?

AG47's last post - 14 July 10:40am
RealElement47's first post - 14 July 12:26 noon

What did you do to get banned?

(And AG/RE's first question that wasn't economic debate wibble was "I think my last DRO was in 2014 when is the earliest I can apply for another?")

triathlon

RealElement47 wrote: »

I think most normal people with normal jobs and normal 2.4 kids or so, are quite happy having the government pay their rent with housing benefit, not if but WHEN housing benefit can’t be funded anymore then property prices and rents will crash.

Well good luck waiting for that.
I personally think there is close to zero chance of that happening

RealElement47

triathlon wrote: »

Well good luck waiting for that.
I personally think there is close to zero chance of that happening

Great, then you think the government will make cut elsewhere to crry on funding housing benefit

Sailtheworld

RealElement47 wrote: »

I think most normal people with normal jobs and normal 2.4 kids or so, are quite happy having the government pay their rent with housing benefit, not if but WHEN housing benefit can’t be funded anymore then property prices and rents will crash.

It must be massively frustrating having the ability to accurately predict a future event but not have the first clue when it might happen. Equally frustrating that this uncanny ability is limited to being able to predict only house price crashes. Can you imagine if you could use your undoubted abilities to make enough money to buy a house now?

Any chance you could try and put some scales in terms of timings and size of crash so I can work out how much money I can make if I take the same bet? When might housing benefit stop - I saw an article the other day which suggested housing benefit might double by 2050.

triathlon

RealElement47 wrote: »

Great, then you think the government will make cut elsewhere to crry on funding housing benefit

Something like that, yes.
Do you have any idea what damage would be done if you crashed the UK property market, OK, so it it takes putting housing benefit into the pockets of landlords so be it. If you think hard enough about it, banks and housing should just about come 1st above every other issue in the UK, and yes that includes the emotive NHS.

If you don't have an economy everything dies. Thank goodness everyone that wants a scorched earth policy to get what they think they might get in the way of desperate sellers selling their beloved homes to vultures are thank goodness all living on housepricecash.com with zero ability to make changes in the world, whereas people that will prop house prices up are all 100% behind me:)

Malthusian

RealElement47 wrote: »

Great, then you think the government will make cut elsewhere to crry on funding housing benefit

As everyone else has said the answer is quite obviously yes.

Food, water and shelter are the most basic primary needs. Water in this country is supplied for free from taps and food requires little government spending as those who spend all their benefits and get hungry can get food from food banks, usually supplied by charity. Housing on the other hand is the only one of those primary needs which is mainly supplied by the state for those who can't afford their own.

(Technically the free house from the government comes with your water thrown in, but you can get that from other sources, e.g. pubs.)

Everything else will be cut before housing benefit. Including the sacred cow of the NHS.

Even if the government did cut housing benefit it would not result in a crash. Housing is a basic need and the other two basic needs can be obtained for free from non-government sources. Therefore if housing benefit was cut, people would not end up on the streets, reducing demand for properties, forcing landlords to sell and causing a house price crash.

What would actually happen is people on low incomes would continue to rent mostly the same properties they live in now and cut expenditure elsewhere to make up for the loss of housing benefit. If cutting expenditure left them so close to the bone they could not afford to eat, they would visit food banks.