Woodford Concerns

Reed_Richards

Jonah01 wrote: »

OP here ... it might be possible to time it [The Market] slightly to get a head start?

It is always possible to time the market which is why attempting to do so seems a tempting proposition. The difficulty comes with actually getting the timing right, Typically when it seems like a good time to invest then it isn't and when it seems utter madness then it may well be the right time. I'm referring to The Market as a whole here, not some individual stock or fund.

OldMusicGuy

Jonah01 wrote: »

While you obviously can't and shouldn't try to time the markets I am concerned about tracking the UK or US due to the ongoing saga of Brexit and also the US might be at its peak.

I'd be interested to know what people's thoughts are on just waiting to see what happens ?

While long term it doesn't matter but surely with these factors it might be possible to time it slightly to get a head start?

Well, I hold a small number of low cost multi-asset funds and I can tell you that you've already lost out by prevaricating. I checked them the other day and performance so far this year has been far better than I anticipated.

When will you know when the "right" time is? You've got it wrong so far this year, why will you get it right at some point in the future.....;)

It's time in the market.

itwasntme001

OldMusicGuy wrote: »

Well, I hold a small number of low cost multi-asset funds and I can tell you that you've already lost out by prevaricating. I checked them the other day and performance so far this year has been far better than I anticipated.

When will you know when the "right" time is? You've got it wrong so far this year, why will you get it right at some point in the future.....;)

It's time in the market.

Its done great year to date because the market tanked in December and as the new year began we saw a huge relief rally. A global tracker year on year is perhaps up around 3-4%, hardly earth shattering gains. A pure US tracker is up a more reasonable 7-8% year on year but if one had invested in that i would not call them a pure passive investor but an active investor using passive funds. Even if you held vanguard life-strategy 60 - a mix of stocks and bonds - you are only up 3.5% year on year.


To the OP - everyone has an opinion about the best ways to invest - from those who are biased towards passive funds to those who believe in stock picking and timing. No one can tell you what you should do except try to learn about the different approaches, research the funds and pick what is right for you. I will say this though - there are no certainties in investing and no guarantees you will come out on top even if you held passive funds in the long term. Its all about finding out what your goals are (including time horizon), what level of risk you are willing to take for those goals and picking the strategy that fits right with both. This may not even include stocks at all.

itwasntme001

Stocks are ultimately driven by earnings so stocks are supported to rise in real terms over time as long as earnings in aggregate rise. What are earnings driven by? A combination of profit margins and the number of companies providing those profit margins. If you have competition within every sector and technological advancements leading to productivity, this should reduce profit margins over time. This means you need either more companies providing enough of the same goods/service and/or enough new goods/services markets to offset the reduction in profit margins, in order to keep earnings in aggregate rising and therefore stocks rising. Do not think that stock market is a sure safe bet in the long run. It is a complex beast.

Jonah01

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Spot the contradiction

Good spot but I think everyone understood the question.

Alexland

Jonah01 wrote: »

I have come to the conclusion active funds are no good for me and that I should be investing in passive cheaper index trackers.

Good conclusion - keeping costs low you should do better than the average investor. Just get invested at an asset allocation risk level you feel comfortable with, based on current fundamentals and your long term objectives, and you can always turn up the dial on risk if better opportunities to buy present themselves in future.

Alex

Jonah01

OldMusicGuy wrote: »

Well, I hold a small number of low cost multi-asset funds and I can tell you that you've already lost out by prevaricating. I checked them the other day and performance so far this year has been far better than I anticipated.

When will you know when the "right" time is? You've got it wrong so far this year, why will you get it right at some point in the future.....;)

It's time in the market.

Prevaricating? When was that? I'm not rushing in for the sake of missing out on a few months


My timing wasn't completely wrong as I'm not stuck in his fund.

AnotherJoe

Jonah01 wrote: »

Prevaricating? When was that? I'm not rushing in for the sake of missing out on a few months
My timing wasn't completely wrong as I'm not stuck in his fund.

So you are going to try market timing by using your knowledge of when the U.K. and US markets have peaked to decide when to buy (and currency markets obviously ) ?
Or if not your knowledge, the knowledge of investors here? Despite stating that you "understand" that market timing doesn't work ?
Did I understand that correctly?

Jonah01

AnotherJoe wrote: »

So you are going to try market timing by using your knowledge of when the U.K. and US markets have peaked to decide when to buy (and currency markets obviously ) ?
Or if not your knowledge, the knowledge of investors here? Despite stating that you "understand" that market timing doesn't work ?
Did I understand that correctly?

The question was phrased poorly but it was simply can events like Brexit be used to at least predict the start of an upturn in the markets.

Every forum has anotherjoe haha

masonic

Jonah01 wrote: »

The question was phrased poorly but it was simply can events like Brexit be used to at least predict the start of an upturn in the markets.

In a word, no. Markets move in anticipation of events. To do this successfully, you need to be the first to know what is going to happen, and make the right call as to how what is going to happen will affect markets. This is impossible to do consistently and if you can't do it consistently you'll generally do worse than someone who doesn't try to time the markets.