Woodford Concerns

Jonbvn

JohnRo wrote: »

So will everyone else (that's interested)

These are the times to be buying if you ever planned to for the longer term.

Some Buffet quotes that seem appropriate

"Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases."

"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble...We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

AnotherJoe

dividendhero wrote: »

Not sure he had a strategy, it seemed to be a case of winging it. Everything from him having a bash at being an active investor (NSF/PFG) through to early stage startups suggested he was either desperate or bored with conventional UK income fund management.

I guess at least he didn't invest in airport car parks, fine wine, crypto currencies or ostrich farms

Some of them have better prospects than some of what he's bought.

Even at worst you can drink the wine, eat the ostrich, and cryptos been up recently.

EdGasketTheSecond

Keir announced today that they are no longer paying a dividend. So Woodford's 16% holding won't be much use in an Income fund. Also Kier value very low over the last two trading days; almost halved, so another blow for Woodford.

JohnRo

I look at what's happened to the bloke and can't help thinking about the Maynard Keynes quote..

'The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'

AnotherJoe

itwasntme001

JohnRo wrote: »

I look at what's happened to the bloke and can't help thinking about the Maynard Keynes quote..

'The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'

But you do not know the market is being irrational. Looking at some of the companies he has invested in, the market price looks rational to me. Market in liquid securities generally is never wrong/irrational.

itwasntme001

EdGasketTheSecond wrote: »

Keir announced today that they are no longer paying a dividend. So Woodford's 16% holding won't be much use in an Income fund. Also Kier value very low over the last two trading days; almost halved, so another blow for Woodford.

It should be obvious to everyone that Woodford is finished and that is a good thing. It is a pity he was allowed to manage money to start with. At least the results show clearly he is completely incompetent.

JohnRo

itwasntme001 wrote: »

But you do not know the market is being irrational. Looking at some of the companies he has invested in, the market price looks rational to me. Market in liquid securities generally is never wrong/irrational.

The quote is not directly about the market or current value being rational, it's about belief in an outcome and market timing.

He may well be proved right to have chosen what he holds now at some future point in time but it doesn't look like his MO is going to get him there.

Thrugelmir

itwasntme001 wrote: »

Market in liquid securities generally is never wrong/irrational.

Passive investing is driven by herd instinct though.

fun4everyone

There must be some value in there and some of the companies must have a chance of going ballistic but..

1) The NAV is a total scam, IH for one is valued at $4bn? Other companies have ludicrous valuations as well, it seems to be based on the price NW paid for them.

2) I don't trust the portfolio either. He threw money at everything and anything without doing any proper research. Stuff like Northwest Bio and Industrial Heat shows that. If investors money is being treated like that (without proper respect) then I don't want to be putting my hard earned in there.

3)WEIF is in all likely hood going to be a forced seller both of WPCT itself and also of some of the stocks in WPCT as there is a lot of cross contamination (WEIF holds some of the same stuff). This could be the cause of the falls now of course.

4)NW is on the hook for more funding to Proton Partners and others that he signed up to long ago. There is a £150m bank overdraft (IIRC) which is due to be repayed in January. Can't really say whats going to happen there but bankers are not stupid with their own money. There must be a chance they just call it in so they get paid before it goes tits up?

The question is what is a fair price. The positive to WPCT imo is that it gives retail investors a chance to get access to stuff they normally would not be able to access. I like that, but the research done on WPCT companies has been utter garbage so far. I would be tempted at a discount to a fair price but I don't know what it is. It's a chunk lower than it is now though in my opinion.