Brexit is good for housing, it will bring about the correction sooner

westernpromise

chucknorris wrote: »

It is good news that you think that, as I don't want property prices to correct (at the moment), and you seem to not be much good at predicting financial outcomes, so I see it as a good indicator for me.

I'm also beginning to wonder if Brexit will ever happen, I know betfair has the odds fairly heavily predicting that it will occur, which must be respected, but I am beginning to wonder how it will happen.

It won't. We'll revoke Article 50.

For my money, there will be no second extension granted to the UK (probably France will veto it). The one we currently have has not been used properly; no progress is being made. Parliament has been given control of the process, but has failed to use this control to do anything at all other than vote down every single form of Brexit put to it.

As May's deal will by 31/10 have been rejected four times, the only two options realistically left on the table will be 1/ Leave without a deal or 2/ Revoke Article 50.

Parliament has already voted against 1/ so that only leaves Revoke. So that's what they'll do. Of course, strictly, by invoking Article 50 to begin with, they're voted against revoking it, but we have a Remainer parliament so that will be overlooked.

I think that outcome will be epochally devastating electorally for both Lab and Con.

westernpromise

lisyloo wrote: »

But when?

Unless you can put a timing on it the statement is useless.

A chap who used to post here as FoFP (it stands for "Friend of Fernando Poo" apparently) is perfect proof of that. On Usenet back in 1996 he was banging on about Kondratieff 70-year waves and how the property market had much further to fall. He was seen here too saying much the same.

The bitter irony is that if he had bought in 1996, he could have more or less paid his mortgage off not long after the WFC eventuated in 2008/9 simply by maintaining his payment rate at the previous level. Instead he postponed buying, thinking to get a bargain, only to find that prices didn't correct anything like enough. Rather than a few more years of a mortgage, he was facing a lifetime of renting.

There are things we all know will happen, but knowing what will happen is the easy bit, it's the when that's hard.

lisyloo

westernpromise wrote: »

A chap who used to post here as FoFP (it stands for "Friend of Fernando Poo" apparently) is perfect proof of that. On Usenet back in 1996 he was banging on about Kondratieff 70-year waves and how the property market had much further to fall. He was seen here too saying much the same.

The bitter irony is that if he had bought in 1996, he could have more or less paid his mortgage off not long after the WFC eventuated in 2008/9 simply by maintaining his payment rate at the previous level. Instead he postponed buying, thinking to get a bargain, only to find that prices didn't correct anything like enough. Rather than a few more years of a mortgage, he was facing a lifetime of renting.

There are things we all know will happen, but knowing what will happen is the easy bit, it's the when that's hard.

I do know people who put off starting a pension and 20 years later they never got round to it.

I was chatting to my IfA this morning about a SIPP transfer where it’s gone against me to be out of the market for a few weeks.
I asked should I go into cash and invest at a later opportunity,
His advice was dont wait as others have done this and ended up waiting a long time e.g. “waiting for brexit”.

In general I don’t think people should try to speculate on timing the housing market and the people I know who are successful are those who focus and get on with things.

AG47

lisyloo wrote: »

But when?
Saying the market will drop again is a certainty (perma prop bulls being as rare as unicorns), so a pointless statement.

Unless you can put a timing on it the statement is useless.

Trying to say perma prob bulls are correct because the big falls haven’t happened yet, is that it?

Nobody knows when they will happen, just like nobody knows when brexit will actually happen, they both keep getting postponed

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

Trying to say perma prob bulls are correct because the big falls haven’t happened yet, is that it?

Nobody knows when they will happen, just like nobody knows when brexit will actually happen, they both keep getting postponed

No I’m saying they don’t exist, only in your head.

Everyone knows and agrees there will be a crash/correction/dip one day.

The fact that nobody knows when means people,can’t time the market so it’s a useless proposition to try that especially if it’s costing you monthly in rent (might be different if you can stay with parents for free).

So we agree that prices will go down at some point but we do t have a clue when.

Why do you think it’s helpful to keep repeating this?

AG47

lisyloo wrote: »

No I’m saying they don’t exist, only in your head.

Everyone knows and agrees there will be a crash/correction/dip one day.

The fact that nobody knows when means people,can’t time the market so it’s a useless proposition to try that especially if it’s costing you monthly in rent (might be different if you can stay with parents for free).

So we agree that prices will go down at some point but we do t have a clue when.

Why do you think it’s helpful to keep repeating this?

I’m pleased you agree the is going to be a correction in the future, there are many here who don’t agree with us on this.

Thankfully many are coming over to the hpc side but haven’t yet come out about it:A:rotfl::rotfl::A

Herzlos

AG47 wrote: »

It’s looking like whatever happens with brexit we are going to see the long overdue correction in property prices

Based on what?

ukcarper

AG47 wrote: »

I’m pleased you agree the is going to be a correction in the future, there are many here who don’t agree with us on this.

Thankfully many are coming over to the hpc side but haven’t yet come out about it:A:rotfl::rotfl::A

Many? perhaps you could name some.

westernpromise

lisyloo wrote: »

people,can’t time the market so it’s a useless proposition to try that especially if it’s costing you monthly in rent (might be different if you can stay with parents for free).

I'm not sure that follows actually.

Your wider point is obviously right and it's astonishing there are still people who need it spelt out. But in terms of the real costs of trying to time a market, the honest input basis is the cost to rent versus cost to buy the same property at some future date.

Using the same property equalises the benefit that your money, however and whenever spent, buys for you, and enables valid comparison . Otherwise, you could fiddle the buy-now-vs-buy-later calculation towards any answer you want to get. Oh look, it costs more to rent a penthouse than a 3-bed semi - that proves renting is really expensive. Oh look, I can rent a shed for less than buying a penthouse, that proves renting is cheap (this is how Crashy Troll has rationalised 23 years of renting).

Someone who factors staying with parents for free into their renting / buying decision isn't actually doing the calculation properly. They're comparing owning the house to renting the house to using part of a different house someone else lives in for an indefinite time. If the latter's somehow equivalent to the first two, then it must be the MSE solution, because it's free. Don't buy, don't rent - live in a room in the parents' house.

The reality is that folk such as AG and Crashy Troll have already had their chance to time the market and have missed it. All the guff about imminent crashes is just misdirection because these individuals' past choices have placed them in a now unrecoverable position which can't be fixed by a crash of even 100% in Crashy Troll's case.

chucknorris

Herzlos wrote: »

Based on what?

Astrology! The moon is in Jupiter this month, obviously a sign that the housing market will crash.