House prices are overpriced by 30% IMO

carpetbelly

SquatNow, you do talk some rubbish. Sometimes you come out with the odd statement that is spot on, I'll admit that one but generally, you're just such a scaremonger on his highhorse.

Saying that, I know I don't know what's going to happen, I only have my opinion, so im more than happy to come back here and say 'Squatnow, you were spot on' if it happens.

Andy_L

Yant1 wrote: »

I do believe UK salarys follow a normal distribution probability profile hence my original calulations should not be a million miles from the mark.

You'd be mistaken
Theres a hard lower limit for salary (~11k for minimum wage) and no upper limit, & far more people on low wages than high.

Romani_Ite_Domum

carpetbelly wrote: »

SquatNow, you do talk some rubbish. Sometimes you come out with the odd statement that is spot on, I'll admit that one but generally, you're just such a scaremonger on his highhorse.

Saying that, I know I don't know what's going to happen, I only have my opinion, so im more than happy to come back here and say 'Squatnow, you were spot on' if it happens.

I think squatnow's expectations are excessive. Having said that, I don't think that 60% falls in real terms are out of the question if the market gently falls 5% a year over a number of years and inflation runs high say 5%. 6 years would do this.

Not out of the realms of possibilty.

chris83_2

SquatNow wrote: »

I'm fully expecting to see at least a 60% drop.

In fact, historically, an 80% drop wouldn't be outlandish.

We can't inflate our way to a soft landing like in the 80s as China is holding down our wage inflation.

Any post that SquatNow makes i find hard to take seriously also, just look at his posting history, hardly a balanced individual. Clearly he wants a 60% drop and finds to it hard to make a reasoned judgement by looking at the other side of the argument. People believe what they want to believe and all that.

No one knows what the future holds. I seriously hope that we won't have a recession like SquatNow seems to want (those sort of price drops won't happen on their own without affecting the rest of the economy), that would be bad news for everyone, including him.

[Deleted User]

Andy_L wrote: »

You'd be mistaken
Theres a hard lower limit for salary (~11k for minimum wage) and no upper limit, & far more people on low wages than high.

If there are significantly more people on the below 28K side, that only fuels the side that house prices are significantly overvalued.

If the majority cant afford the system is in trouble.

I cant see the dodgy lending practices of self declaration via dodgy brokers and 125% dodgy credit mortgages continuing either. The last shot of madness that kept them overpriced.

JohnInDebt

House prices rise and house prices fall, it's all part of the cycle.

However, how much they fall is uncertain as the governement and financial institutions will always find ways to try and keep the property market active with ideas such as shared ownership, higher lending percentages & longer mortgage terms etc..

Unfortunately it'll be like re-arranging deck chairs on the titanic as the economy will ultimately decide house prices and no amount of ideas will keep the market rising, but they could soften the blow.