Can you imagine the destruction in the UK if the property market crashed

lisyloo

edgex wrote: »

& they're going to be doing that with 2bed terraces in Manchester?
or 1bed flats in Leeds?
or 3bed semis in Birmingham?

I see no reason why they wouldn’t buy flats, and yes northern cities are not exempt, in fact they may be very good value.
Do you think people in China care where they are of the bet is on currency exchange?
They are not moving in !!

They are less likely to buy terraces I would imagine but surely you can understand there will be a trickle down effect.

By buying certain type of properties e.g. city center flat, then it means the people that can not longer rent or buy those have to move to the semis/terraces.
Highest bidder wins.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

As you said yourself above most will eat their own children before going into rental, but some may have no choice if they lose their jobs.

It remains to be seen what happens with net immigration.
The figures have stayed high since 2016, with a drop in EU but an increase in non EU.

Already been said.
Foreign investors will hoover up properties.
Those who’ve lost their job will need rental.

The housing market is now global so things have changed from previous downturns.
It will be a buying opportunity for some.

Maybe for you, but how good are you at catching a falling knife?

As you know I promote home owining because from day 1 you are reducing your risk by making repayments, so most homeowners will not be at 90% or 95% LTV.
Many will be much lower.

You can`t have it both ways, you can`t claim over and over again that home owning is the best low risk strategy for providing a roof over your head then have millions in trouble with their mortgage and forced into rental just to win an argument about rising/falling rents. Which is it, is having a mortgage a safer lower risk bet than renting, or is it a knife edge depending on how the economy shapes up? If the number of people is staying the same or falling, and people are forced out of their homes into rental we still have the same number of homes so I can`t see where the rising rents are coming from, especially with wages stalled or falling in a recession? The investors "hoovering" things up is HPI fantasy IMO, retail/commercial and BTL portfolios are failing all over the place and there is more volatility to come in bond/credit markets meaning for sure a few big landlords are going to go pop.

Crashy_Time

Herzlos wrote: »

More people moving from ownership to rentals based on job losses and tightened lending criteria.

Who buys their property, foreign investors?

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You can`t have it both ways, you can`t claim over and over again that home owning is the best low risk strategy for providing a roof over your head

Over the long term this is normally the best strategy for the majority.

then have millions in trouble with their mortgage and forced into rental just to win an argument about rising/falling rents. Which is it, is having a mortgage a safer lower risk bet than renting, or is it a knife edge depending on how the economy shapes up?

There are always exceptional situations that affect people.
No one has every said house buying is 100% guaranteed.
There will always be people who lose out through poor health, accident, job loss, divorce or death.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Who buys their property, foreign investors?

The highest bidder (now global).
Are you saying people won’t buy if prices fall?
This is what you’ve wanted isn’t it, a big fall in prices?

They will find a level at which people want to buy, that’s how the housing market works.
If a bank has repossessed, they won’t have emotional ties, they will sell it for the best price they can get.
If that’s a huge fall, the that’s what you’re wishing for isn’t it?

triathlon

Just look in the mirror people and ask yourself this. After 20 years of now constant property crash drivel was it wise 20 years on to have have ignored the doom mongers and lived your life in your own home with decades to come of now mortgage fee living.

It really is and was a no brainer

Herzlos

edgex wrote: »

If people lose their jobs, how do they pay rent? How do they magically sell a property, & then get a rental property?
If your answer is 'state pays via HB', then it's also just as easy for the state to pay HB & they stay in their existing property & pay something towards the mortgage.

They may be able to afford to make rent but not hit the criteria for a mortgage. HB also won't cover mortgage beyond there being some help with interest for a while.
They may also have some equity in the house which they can free up to get them through the period of unemployment.

Herzlos

edgex wrote: »

& they're going to be doing that with 2bed terraces in Manchester?
or 1bed flats in Leeds?
or 3bed semis in Birmingham?

They may not be doing it individually, but they could easily be investing in UK based property management companies who'll buy up whatever stock they feel is worthwhile. If such things don't exist yet they will at some point.

qwert_yuiop

lisyloo wrote: »

Because if a fall in sterling which means property is especially cheap for them.
Foreign investors are not interested in rental income, they can make from currency movements if there is a currency fall.

This does not make sense. A foreign investor would be gambling on some future recovery in the British economy and a rise in the value of the pound against their own currency. And of course the rent matters.

Crashy_Time

triathlon wrote: »

Just look in the mirror people and ask yourself this. After 20 years of now constant property crash drivel was it wise 20 years on to have have ignored the doom mongers and lived your life in your own home with decades to come of now mortgage fee living.

It really is and was a no brainer

Lets hope increasing interest rates (they will increase due to currency crisis, no way the PTB will voluntarily raise) don`t increase those fees too much.