Can you imagine the destruction in the UK if the property market crashed

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

you are yourself encouraging/advising people not to buy.
Well they need somewhere to live and that will likely be rental so demand will increase.

I thought you said my advice was listened to by absolutely no one, so half the country is unlikely to be influenced by me saying don`t buy? I still don`t see how the present rental demand is going to increase under a Brexit/No Deal scenario as people head home from the UK as FOM wraps up and jobs are lost?

phillw

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I still don`t see how the present rental demand is going to increase under a Brexit/No Deal scenario as people head home from the UK as FOM wraps up and jobs are lost?

If all the europeans leave then our economy collapses, foreign investors comes in to buy properties. UK citizens won't afford to pay their mortgages, hence it will increase rentals.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I thought you said my advice was listened to by absolutely no one

As you said yourself above most will eat their own children before going into rental, but some may have no choice if they lose their jobs.

It remains to be seen what happens with net immigration.
The figures have stayed high since 2016, with a drop in EU but an increase in non EU.

Already been said.
Foreign investors will hoover up properties.
Those who’ve lost their job will need rental.

The housing market is now global so things have changed from previous downturns.
It will be a buying opportunity for some.

Maybe for you, but how good are you at catching a falling knife?

As you know I promote home owining because from day 1 you are reducing your risk by making repayments, so most homeowners will not be at 90% or 95% LTV.
Many will be much lower.

Herzlos

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Most of the job losses will be people leaving rentals and moving back to EE IMO

Some will, sure, but there will be plenty of natives losing jobs too. They can't go back to EE.

most of the middle class non-job types that rely one way or another in being in the EU will eat their own children before giving up the bubble mortgage, they will borrow from parents other family, eat beans every day before going into rental, that means more people staying put and less renters, meaning lower rents and house prices.

There are a lot more people in the 'just about coping' category and are barely a paycheck away from disaster. Some will borrow more to keep mortgages, some will downsize, some will be forced into rentals. Not as many people are as obsessed with home ownership as you are and will be quite happy to drop it to provide for their family.


Plenty of people ready to jump onto the property ladder will find their banks lending criteria completely shuts them out due to higher deposit and stress test requirements.



Any recession likely to have an impact on house prices is going to result in a lot more people unable to own and will drive up rental demand.

edgex

phillw wrote: »

If all the europeans leave then our economy collapses, foreign investors comes in to buy properties. UK citizens won't afford to pay their mortgages, hence it will increase rentals.

Why would foreign investors buy?
If the economy collapses, then so would rents, or at least the ability of people to pay rent. What investor is going to buy in that situation?

lisyloo

edgex wrote: »

Why would foreign investors buy?
If the economy collapses, then so would rents, or at least the ability of people to pay rent. What investor is going to buy in that situation?

Because if a fall in sterling which means property is especially cheap for them.
Foreign investors are not interested in rental income, they can make from currency movements if there is a currency fall.

edgex

lisyloo wrote: »

As you said yourself above most will eat their own children before going into rental, but some may have no choice if they lose their jobs.

It remains to be seen what happens with net immigration.
The figures have stayed high since 2016, with a drop in EU but an increase in non EU.

Already been said.
Foreign investors will hoover up properties.
Those who’ve lost their job will need rental.

The housing market is now global so things have changed from previous downturns.
It will be a buying opportunity for some.

Maybe for you, but how good are you at catching a falling knife?

As you know I promote home owining because from day 1 you are reducing your risk by making repayments, so most homeowners will not be at 90% or 95% LTV.
Many will be much lower.

If people lose their jobs, how do they pay rent? How do they magically sell a property, & then get a rental property?
If your answer is 'state pays via HB', then it's also just as easy for the state to pay HB & they stay in their existing property & pay something towards the mortgage.

Crashy_Time

phillw wrote: »

If all the europeans leave then our economy collapses, foreign investors comes in to buy properties. UK citizens won't afford to pay their mortgages, hence it will increase rentals.

They won`t all leave, just the transitory ones who have their nail bar/coffee shop/Uber job go under, enough to collapse the BTL market not the whole economy. You are grasping at straws a bit I feel with your idea that rentals are going to increase come hell or high water, almost as if you want to lash out at someone because the economy/politics is not going the way you might have liked?

edgex

lisyloo wrote: »

Because if a fall in sterling which means property is especially cheap for them.
Foreign investors are not interested in rental income, they can make from currency movements if there is a currency fall.

& they're going to be doing that with 2bed terraces in Manchester?
or 1bed flats in Leeds?
or 3bed semis in Birmingham?

lisyloo

edgex wrote: »

If people lose their jobs, how do they pay rent? How do they magically sell a property, & then get a rental property?
If your answer is 'state pays via HB', then it's also just as easy for the state to pay HB & they stay in their existing property & pay something towards the mortgage.

No one magically sells a property.
There will be a period of forebearance by the mortgage company but many families are just about managing and only one payslip from benefits (this is well reported on).
After the forebearance the mortgage company will eventually evict and repossess.

There may be cases where it makes sense for hb to stay in their existing property, but the housing you get on benefits often won’t match the housing people will choose to live in privately, so (for example) the HB might not stretch to a 3 or 4 bed.