Gold and silver bars

markj113

I would hold out a while and see how things play out.


With a potential hard brexit, the EU going into recession and the US economy slowing there is good potential for a price increase sooner rather than later.


Your silver bars would also sell for around £440 not £350 currently unless you sell to a dealer.

Adly812

Thank you I will hold onto them and just see what happens. Least I know it’s been confirmed that silver is never a good investment... I wish I could convince my dad, who still keeps saying ; “wait and see”.... for what ?,. I think he just won’t own up to the mistake ... I’ve learnt my lesson and I suppose it was a long time ago I spent the money. So it’s now a matter of trying to sell it for whatever I can get

DiggerUK

Hold the gold, your ok with that, do what you fancy with the silver...rainy day emergency?
Lesson number 2, KEEP RECORDS, you seem a bit loose on that score..._

OldMusicGuy

Smb3088 wrote: »

I wish I could convince my dad, who still keeps saying ; “wait and see”.... for what ?,. I think he just won’t own up to the mistake ... I’ve learnt my lesson and I suppose it was a long time ago I spent the money. So it’s now a matter of trying to sell it for whatever I can get

Are you sure your dad doesn't post on here as DiggerUK.....?;):)

short_butt_sweet

Smb3088 wrote: »

Thank you I will hold onto them and just see what happens. Least I know it’s been confirmed that silver is never a good investment... I wish I could convince my dad, who still keeps saying ; “wait and see”.... for what ?,. I think he just won’t own up to the mistake ... I’ve learnt my lesson and I suppose it was a long time ago I spent the money. So it’s now a matter of trying to sell it for whatever I can get

that's not quite the right lesson to learn.

gold is just as bad an investment as silver, if that's all you're holding as investments. some people have an investment portfolio of perhaps 1% gold and 99% more mainstream investments, and that may make sense. (0% gold can also make sense.) you'd do better to sell the gold, too (or 99% of it ... though i see you have bars, so keeping 1% may not be an option), and buy a multi-asset fund instead.

i'd add that, although nobody knows where the gold price is going next, it looks on the high side at the moment, so there is probably more downside than upside. to see why, look again at that graph of the inflation-adjusted gold price (which masonic linked to) ...

(the graph is in inflation-adjusted dollars, so perhaps that's less relevant than inflation-adjusted pounds, but the message would be similar.)

note that the inflation-adjusted high and lows basically go nowhere over time. so the highs in 1980 and 2011 were at almost exactly the same level ($2000): no real gains in 31 years.

and the lows in 1920 and 1970 were both at about $250 - that's 50 years apart. (the low in 2001 was a bit higher, at $380. the lows aren't always the same. nor are the highs.)

the point is that, with a current price of about $1300, how much higher or lower might it go?

if gold goes back to its all-time real high (of $2000), that would only be a gain of about 50% - i.e. it would be up to 1.5 times its present value.

but if gold goes back to its all-time real low at about $250, it would be down about 80% - i.e. down to 1/5 of its present value. even if it only went back to the more recent (2001) low of $380, it would be down 70% - i.e. down to 3/10 of its present value.

so potential losses are a lot higher than potential gains, starting from here. which means it seems to me like a decent time to get out, if you have ended up with a 100% precious metals portfolio and now realize this is a bad idea.

markj113

short_butt_sweet wrote: »

that's not quite the right lesson to learn.

gold is just as bad an investment as silver, if that's all you're holding as investments. some people have an investment portfolio of perhaps 1% gold and 99% more mainstream investments, and that may make sense. (0% gold can also make sense.) you'd do better to sell the gold, too (or 99% of it ... though i see you have bars, so keeping 1% may not be an option), and buy a multi-asset fund instead.

i'd add that, although nobody knows where the gold price is going next, it looks on the high side at the moment, so there is probably more downside than upside. to see why, look again at that graph of the inflation-adjusted gold price (which masonic linked to) ...

(the graph is in inflation-adjusted dollars, so perhaps that's less relevant than inflation-adjusted pounds, but the message would be similar.)

note that the inflation-adjusted high and lows basically go nowhere over time. so the highs in 1980 and 2011 were at almost exactly the same level ($2000): no real gains in 31 years.

and the lows in 1920 and 1970 were both at about $250 - that's 50 years apart. (the low in 2001 was a bit higher, at $380. the lows aren't always the same. nor are the highs.)

the point is that, with a current price of about $1300, how much higher or lower might it go?

if gold goes back to its all-time real high (of $2000), that would only be a gain of about 50% - i.e. it would be up to 1.5 times its present value.

but if gold goes back to its all-time real low at about $250, it would be down about 80% - i.e. down to 1/5 of its present value. even if it only went back to the more recent (2001) low of $380, it would be down 70% - i.e. down to 3/10 of its present value.

so potential losses are a lot higher than potential gains, starting from here. which means it seems to me like a decent time to get out, if you have ended up with a 100% precious metals portfolio and now realize this is a bad idea.

Silver is a worse investment than gold as you have to factor in VAT (can be reduced through buying in EU) and a higher premium so increased buy/sell spread.


How do you apply historic price data when we have unique factors such as QE + historic low interest rates to factor in.


If anything I think the gold price has more chance of getting to all time highs rather than falling when you factor in Brexit, an EU recession, US economic slow down and the world drowing in debt etc.


Goldman Sachs has also just revised their gold price forecast upwards to to $1350 within 3 months and $1450 within 6 to 12 months.

chucknorris

Smb3088 wrote: »

about ten years ago I was recommended to purchase silver and gold bars for future investment. Being very young and naive I followed the advice and bought some bars off uk.bullion. The gold has remained somewhat consistent in price and lost me a max of £100 for my bars. But my silver Umicore bar has lost me like £400 each. I’m gutted. Does anyone see a future market for gold or silver? Will prices ever increase or have I lost £££ in my investment without question?

Do your losses include loss of profit compared to if you had invested in more conventional investments, or are they simply the actual losses ignoring opportunity cost/gain?

short_butt_sweet

markj113 wrote: »

How do you apply historic price data when we have unique factors such as QE + historic low interest rates to factor in.

it doesn't change what i said, which (to reiterate) was about the likely range for the gold price, not a prediction about where it will go next within that range. many people (including you, and goldman sachs) have opinions on the latter, but the fact is that nobody knows.

everybody loves to say QE is unprecedented, but even if that's true, it doesn't tell us what will happen next. if anything, it warns us to be even more reluctant to make predictions.