Roulette Winnings

JohnLock

A carefully executed martingale roulette strategy is making me £200 every day. I only start with £10, and bet £0.50, which is the lowest stake, but that is the beauty of it. It gives lots of opportunity to double if loss. Only start betting after 2 or 3 consecutive colours, and bet the opposite of these colours. Skip a round, if necessary. The chain eventually breaks and you can extract the £0.50. Of course, it takes a few hours to turn this £10 into £200, but it is certainly worth it. I have made £1200 over the past week using this method. It's great because I'm betting low stakes, so the dealer doesn't notice me amongst the 1000 other players in the room betting higher stakes. It's also low risk. Most importantly, the colour change is determined by the highest winner. Always bet the opposite to them, wherever possible.

So... Do I need to pay tax on these winnings, and future winnings?

ColdIron

Another episode in the incomparable life of JohnLock

masonic

Casual gambing winnings are not taxable unless HMRC considers this to be your occupation.

masonic

For those interested https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

"The fundamental reason why all martingale-type betting systems fail is that no amount of information about the results of past bets can be used to predict the results of a future bet with accuracy better than chance. In mathematical terminology, this corresponds to the assumption that the win-loss outcomes of each bet are independent and identically distributed random variables, an assumption which is valid in many realistic situations. It follows from this assumption that the expected value of a series of bets is equal to the sum, over all bets that could potentially occur in the series, of the expected value of a potential bet times the probability that the player will make that bet. In most casino games, the expected value of any individual bet is negative, so the sum of lots of negative numbers is also always going to be negative.

The martingale strategy fails even with unbounded stopping time, as long as there is a limit on earnings or on the bets (which is also true in practice). It is only with unbounded wealth, bets and time that it could be argued that the martingale becomes a winning strategy.

Mathematical analysis
The impossibility of winning over the long run, given a limit of the size of bets or a limit in the size of one's bankroll or line of credit, is proven by the optional stopping theorem."

dealer_wins

JohnLock wrote: »

A carefully executed martingale roulette strategy is making me £200 every day. I only start with £10, and bet £0.50, which is the lowest stake, but that is the beauty of it. It gives lots of opportunity to double if loss. Only start betting after 2 or 3 consecutive colours, and bet the opposite of these colours. Skip a round, if necessary. The chain eventually breaks and you can extract the £0.50. Of course, it takes a few hours to turn this £10 into £200, but it is certainly worth it. I have made £1200 over the past week using this method. It's great because I'm betting low stakes, so the dealer doesn't notice me amongst the 1000 other players in the room betting higher stakes. It's also low risk. Most importantly, the colour change is determined by the highest winner. Always bet the opposite to them, wherever possible.

So... Do I need to pay tax on these winnings, and future winnings?

OP what you are claiming is mathematically impossible.

Alistair31

OP is a fantasist.

dealer_wins

Alistair31 wrote: »

OP is a fantasist.

I guess this thread is absolute proof lol as what he is stating is literally impossible, unlike the other loads of BS that had a 0.00000001% chance of being true :rotfl::rotfl:

WaywardDriver

For more excitement and just as sure way to lose, could try the reverse Martingale where instead of doubling your bet when you lose, you double it when you win. See http://www.roulettestrategy.net/strategy/reverse-martingale/.

Stubod

..simply brill.....I love these posts.....Mr. Lock please keep them coming....

Aegis

Once upon a time I thought of using a standard martingale system to make money, so I built a spreadsheet to show me how I'd do. Most of the time, I found I would make money - albeit a small amount - but every now and then the losses would clear out all my worldly wealth (I was a student, so this was not much at the time, but the doubling of your bet eventually leads to a huge call on cash to make the next bet).


I played around a fair bit, but eventually concluded that the standard maths is correct - played for long enough, the martingale strategy has an expected loss for a standard roulette system with the house edge.


I never went ahead and implemented my strategy, but maybe one day I'll have so much money that I won't care about the potential losses if I need to walk away (and therefore won't need the money, therefore won't actually go ahead in the first place).

EdGasketTheSecond

Better still read 'Thirteen against the bank'; they used the reverse Labouchere if I recall correctly. Its a good read and you won't lose any money if you borrow it from the library. Unlike the OP if he ever put his fantasies into practice.