Housing market continues to slow....

tightgit_2

GreenB wrote:

I agree with J_M_B!

How many more times is the sme thing going to be discussed.....As it stands prices are still increasing - though at a slow pace.

Not in my area. House prices have come down and many more houses remain unsold because the vendors just can't accept that their houses aren't worth the asking price.

deemy2004

Okay fair enough... the slide in house prices is on pause for the summer....

Check this space... September 05 - DOOOM GLOOOM

CRASSSSSSSSHHHHHH!!!!!!

Plasticman

I will make a note to come back to this thread in September!

GreenB_2

So what exactly is a cash Deemy2004?
A drop of 5 % or 10% is not a crash in my view ...however I don't think we are going to see a drop at all.

meanmachine_2

GreenB wrote:

So what exactly is a cash Deemy2004?
A drop of 5 % or 10% is not a crash in my view ...however I don't think we are going to see a drop at all.

Where do you live?

If you tell us that we'll be able to tell you whether there has already been a drop, a rise or neither in recent months.

If you live in London, you've been experiencing a drop for at least 12 months.

But the further away from London, the greater the likelihood that you haven't experienced falls.

Anyway, why should you care? The only people who should give amonkeys are those who haven't bought, but are thinking of buying. I don't really see why anyone else should care either way. If houses drop, then that just means your next purchase is cheaper. Simple as.

deemy2004

GreenB wrote:

So what exactly is a cash Deemy2004?
A drop of 5 % or 10% is not a crash in my view ...however I don't think we are going to see a drop at all.

LOL

Yeh a crash are strong words... and only become clear after the event... Okay what I would consider a crash say a 15%+ drop in real terms over 3 years.

The actual impact will be greater as people will be better able to bargain reductions on house purchases.

Well thats my guess on what is goign to happen to house prices.... off course it 'may' not transpire.

The problem I find is that The BOE and Gordon Brown are doing such a damn fine job of handling the economy ! I wonder if they can avert the downturn in house prices and just shuv us through 5 or more years of drifting going nowhere prices ????

Don't know... just at this point in time I am sticking to the 15%+ drop scenerio over 3 years or so.

ReportInvestor

deemy2004 wrote:

I would consider a crash say a 15%+ drop in real terms over 3 years.

Is that really a crash? It might only require a 7-8% fall in house prices after some areas of the country have seen 30% rises in a year. It would just be seen as a minor correction to take off the froth of "irrational exuberance".

Who's going to go through the hassle of selling up and renting and buying again if this is all we might be facing?

Think also of the agents' fees, removal costs, storage costs and Gordon Brown's stamp duty.

meanmachine_2

But rightmove - an estate agency - are predicting SEVEN years of stagnation.

That's 0% for seven years, which, in real terms, supposing annual inflation of 3% is a fall of 21%.

Which would you prefer? A slow dull slide, or a sharp correction then a renewed, rising market?

I think these people who talk about a "soft landing" don't really understand what it means.

It means a dead market, very few transactions and no capital gains. Surely an EAs worst nightmare.

Sput2001

But rightmove - an estate agency - are predicting SEVEN years of stagnation.

The report I read from rightmove foreast two to three years of stagnation - where did you read about seven years?

John_M_Business

meanmachine wrote:

But rightmove - an estate agency - are predicting SEVEN years of stagnation.

Firstly, Rightmove are not an EA - they're a Property Portal.

meanmachine wrote:

That's 0% for seven years, which, in real terms, supposing annual inflation of 3% is a fall of 21%.

It would amount to more than a fall of 21% (compound... ) if it were true.

meanmachine wrote:

Which would you prefer? A slow dull slide, or a sharp correction then a renewed, rising market?

The housing market is not like the retail market. Therefore I don't think that either scenario (correction or stagnation) is actually going to much affect the choice that people make to move or not to move. In any case, the bigger problem for movers are the exorbitant COSTS of moving (i.e. the ludicrously high stamp duty).

meanmachine wrote:

I think these people who talk about a "soft landing" don't really understand what it means.

... er... I'm not sure that anyone really knows what it means. You see, I could equally argue that a drop is more likely to cause consternation in the marketplace and increasing uncertainty about further falls, whereas a period of continued stability will give buyers confidence in the value of their properties... but the truth behind this all is that people move home... and will continue to do so and MOST choose to move before thinking too hard about the market - because most homes' relative values are unchanged.

meanmachine wrote:

It means a dead market, very few transactions and no capital gains. Surely an EAs worst nightmare.

No. Not at all.