Interest rate forecast outlook

the_midnight_Wolfboy

What are people's opinion on fix length given the current economic outlook?

I think no deal brexit is off the table.
But economic data is kind of poor per the BoE recent assessment.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/07/bank-of-england-holds-interest-rates-cuts-growth-forecast

I have a 335k mortgage on a 400k house in Southall (still waiting for crossrail...)
I am essentally trying to model whether its better to do a sequence of two year fixes and take the forecasted interest rate rises against drops in LTV .

Or fix for 10 years while we have somewhat historically low interest rates.

2 year fix 1.69%
10 year fix 2.55%

My opinion is that ten year fixes have never been so low for my LTV. I'm not saying I can out forecast the stats guys at the building societies but realistically its not going to go much lower than 0.75% now no deal is off the table.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/interest-rate
https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/interest-rate-predictions-2020s/

If the base rate hits 1.5% by 2023 then it will mean the 10 year fix pays off (using back of hand maths)

Reddit consensus is to do a sequence of two year fixes, but I think the fees eat up a lot of the short term benefit.

What are peoples thoughts on their own fixes?

Mortgage_Adviser

No deal brexit unfortunately is NOT of the table

missplant

fixed for 5 years just so I have peace of mind. no plans to move within that time frame

Thrugelmir

the_midnight_Wolfboy wrote: »

What are people's opinion on fix length given the current economic outlook?

Same as yesterday. Make a decision based on your own personal circumstances. Rather than try and forecast future unknown events. Some of which won't even be on your radar yet.

With a debt of the size you have. The downside is sizable. Maybe worth paying a slight premium to insure yourself against the worst scenarios.

the_midnight_Wolfboy

Same as yesterday. Make a decision based on your own personal circumstances. Rather than try and forecast future unknown events. Some of which won't even be on your radar yet.

So you don't think personal circumstances are influenced by future economic events?

If there is a relationship between the two then surely you agree that it is worth at least exploring opinons/concensus/ideas on what the next few years hold for us.

The idea is to make an informed decision based on a multitude of factors including personal circumstances, outlook, maths etc

Personally i don't think rates will go much lower than they are now, especially given the reduction in probability of hard brexit. Compared to Europe, our countries economic data has been relatively positive despite Brexit.

Thrugelmir

the_midnight_Wolfboy wrote: »

So you don't think personal circumstances are influenced by future economic events?

As I said in my earlier impossible to forecast them. Is the ongoing US\China trade war actually the elephant in the room. As the impact will ripple far and wide the longer it continues. Likewise Trump's economic policies. Which are resulting in a strengthening US $. Brexit has uncertainies. Though companies don't exist to make a profit. Companies make a profit to survive.

A Corbyn led momentum Government is yet another potential concern. The list goes on.

denz1968

my wife is a mortgage advisor in a bank, we are at the end of our fixed term and we are going for a five year fixed!!

Hughesy84

denz1968 wrote: »

my wife is a mortgage advisor in a bank, we are at the end of our fixed term and we are going for a five year fixed!!

Based on what?