Investing in companies Pre-Brexit

Thrugelmir

dividendhero wrote: »

From a global perspective Brexit is to a large extent a zero sum game - eg if the UK companies lose export markets then foreign companies will pick up the sales, so yes global funds is the way to go

UK companies that export will most likely have overseas operations in place already.

Linton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Over 92% of UK companies don't export.

Possibly in terms of company numbers, but in terms of invested wealth almost all of it will be in companies that do export, or own foreign subsidiaries. The very large number of very smallUK companies play little part in most people's portfolios.

Thrugelmir

A_T wrote: »

It's not hard to predict what might happen in certain scenarios:

Hard Brexit (no deal) = UK-listed shares fall (except multinationals like BP, BATS, etc), sterling falls (value of foreign investments rises so people like Rees-Mogg do very well )

Soft Brexit = sterling rises, UK-listed shares rise (except multinationals like BP, BATS, etc)

Hard Brexit =

Estimated hit to German exporters €9billion. German exports to the UK last year were in the region of €84 billion.

Ireland 4% of GDP.

Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark 1%.

Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg negative impact on their financial services industry.

Going global doesn't provide immunity.

Linton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Hard Brexit =

Estimated hit to German exporters €9billion. German exports to the UK last year were in the region of €84 billion.

Ireland 4% of GDP.

Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark 1%.

Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg negative impact on their financial services industry.

Going global doesn't provide immunity.

Nothing provides investors with immunity to world events.


But as far as BREXIT is concerned:
- German total exports in 2017 were $1.3Tn. The estimated hit from a hard BREXIT is about 0.6%.
- What % of your investments are in Ireland, Malta, Cyprus or Luxembourg?
- If you have a well diversified global portfolio it is likely that your holdings in the USA are significantly higher than your combined holdings in the UK and EU. I cannot see whatever happens with BREXIT having a serious (or even discernible) affect on the US economy.



The effects of Trump policy and the China downturn would surely be far more important to a global investor than BREXIT.

A_T

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Hard Brexit =

Estimated hit to German exporters €9billion. German exports to the UK last year were in the region of €84 billion.

Ireland 4% of GDP.

Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark 1%.

Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg negative impact on their financial services industry.

Going global doesn't provide immunity.

In other words, as far as the rest of the world is concerned, negligible.

dividendhero

A_T wrote: »

Estimated hit to German exporters €9billion. .

It''ll take Germany all of 56 hours to export that much to the rest of the world - bet they're quaking in their boots at the prospect