Why don't people cheer the brilliant elements of No-Deal crash- Such as making property affordable?

David_Evans

Crashy_Time wrote: »

They said Brexit, and Trump, was silly, and it wasn`t going to happen, and they will be saying that the idea of the EU breaking up is silly (as it is happening) As for house prices the governor of the BOE is making HPC statements now for goodness sake! Everyone and their dog now knows that a big property price correction is firmly on the table.

I agree there has been a shift towards political populism. Most observers would agree.

But I think you underestimate the degree to which the UK govt will act to prop up the UK housing prices (in GBP terms). They've learnt from the early 1990s recession. They won't make the same mistake twice. They've got away with QE once. They'll do it again and trash the GBP.

phillw

lisyloo wrote: »

Don't foreign investors like posh new builds?
So it won't do much for the price of houses in say Luton? or perhaps anywhere except London?? and maybe one or two other cities?

Foreign investors are pretty much like any other kind of investor, they put money where there is a good ROI. All it will take is a shift in the market in their favour and someone taking advantage of that by marketing to them.

The predicted crash is likely to only be properties that we will never be able to afford anyway.

David_Evans

phillw wrote: »

Foreign investors are pretty much like any other kind of investor, they put money where there is a good ROI.

I'm not sure that's quite true.
Wealthy foreigners (from countries such as Russia, China etc) are often motivated by asset protection.

phillw

David_Evans wrote: »

I'm not sure that's quite true.
Wealthy foreigners (from countries such as Russia, China etc) are often motivated by asset protection.

How do you protect your assets if you don't make a return? If you're making a loss then you aren't protecting anything.

David_Evans

phillw wrote: »

How do you protect your assets if you don't make a return? If you're making a loss then you aren't protecting anything.

Protection from govt confiscation, law suits, capital controls etc.

phillw

David_Evans wrote: »

Protection from govt confiscation, law suits, capital controls etc.

Sure, there are a few people stealing money and then buying properties in London for their mistresses to live in & I doubt they'd be interested in buying up a street in hartlepool.

I'm not convinced that all foreign investment is from illegal sources, or that London is a good place to try to hide your money. Buying up properties and renting them out would probably be my choice of laundering stolen money, with a few shell companies in the way (if I was that way inclined of course).

lisyloo

Foreign investors are pretty much like any other kind of investor, they put money where there is a good ROI. All it will take is a shift in the market in their favour and someone taking advantage of that by marketing to them.

Not sure that is entirely true.
The sophisticated investors yes will seek out investments.

The less sophisticated may only see what is marketed to them e.g. battersea power station.


There are plenty of people in this country in pension schemes who will go for their employers default fund or their pensions providers default managed fund as they have no idea what they are doing and no idea where to go to for advice.
I was a lot like to begin with. I did take my employers free money, but it went into the default "managed fund" as I was unsophisticated.
I still class myself as personally unsophisticated but these days I know when and where to get advice and I'm not afraid to pay for it.

phillw

lisyloo wrote: »

Not sure that is entirely true.
The sophisticated investors yes will seek out investments.

The less sophisticated may only see what is marketed to them e.g. battersea power station.

But that is the same whether they are foreign or not.

If property prices drop and stay low long enough then someone will market them abroad as the foreigners won't have had their capital decimated by a drop in sterling. Anyone hoping for the market to re-balance at a much lower level post brexit, will be disappointed.

You could argue that it hasn't happened in previous crashes, so why would it be any different now. The answer to that is we now have the internet and this crash would be uniquely british.

David_Evans

phillw wrote: »

Sure, there are a few people stealing money and then buying properties in London for their mistresses to live in & I doubt they'd be interested in buying up a street in hartlepool.

I'm not convinced that all foreign investment is from illegal sources, or that London is a good place to try to hide your money. Buying up properties and renting them out would probably be my choice of laundering stolen money, with a few shell companies in the way (if I was that way inclined of course).

I agree with you mostly. London probably WAS a good place to protect ''dodgy'' money from a foreign govt. But the UK govt has acted now against ''unexplained wealth'' etc.

Obviously there is a fine line between money laundering and asset protection. Especially in countries where there is more corruption, bribery etc. Tax evasion charges may be used by the govt to target the wealth of individuals if they don't co-operate politically etc, etc.

I think many people in the UK see things in a black and white, right v wrong way. That doesn't really hold up overseas.

lisyloo

If property prices drop and stay low long enough then someone will market them abroad as the foreigners won't have had their capital decimated by a drop in sterling.

Really you think someone will be marketing terraces in Barnsley?
Personally I think they'll go for the low hanging fruit that is attractive to investors where they can make a good %.