30% fall in property if no deal brexit

lisyloo

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The UK population is ageing. The baby boom generation is hitting retirement.

So what does that mean?
More demand for smaller properties?
Older people passing money onto youngsters to but property?

I agree with your statement but have no clue what you think will happen?

At retirement (say 50s or 60s) id expect most people to carry on living in their existing home.

Thrugelmir

lisyloo wrote: »

So what does that mean?

Longer term there could be an overall decline in the population.

Thrugelmir

John_G_Jones wrote: »

a falling deficit, a narrowing wealth gap, a better educated workforce than ever before,wage growth...

On an annual basis the UK runs a deficit that requires funding. Selling assets has it's limitations. As the profits from said assets aren't reinvested but transfered abroad.

Wealth gap is increasing. More so where the equity in property is inherited.

Better educated but greater number of semi skilled jobs. Fewer people are trained with real skills. As a result skills entirely die out.

Ask the public sector about wage growth and many in the private sector. Austerity is alive and kicking. Wages will be determined at a global level in some industries. There's no automatic right because cost of living is higher.

lisyloo

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Longer term there could be an overall decline in the population.

Ok, but I’m at the widest part of this graph (50, female)
https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=wVFMXL7RO5GxU6eEicAJ&q=population+graph+uk&oq=population+graph&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.1.1.0l5.2091.4849..6675...0.0..1.289.1218.15j0j1......0....1.......5..41j0i131j46i275.FkF2wVW5a5k#imgrc=BNyPpG_bppFDMM:

And I’m. Not planning on going anywhere for 40 years, so don’t hold your breath......

Thrugelmir

lisyloo wrote: »

Ok, but I’m at the widest part of this graph (50, female)

The baby boom generation (post war) is ahead of you.

In 1996 the median age of the EU28 was around 36 years old. In 2016 was over 42. Germany is now over 47. Merkel's appeal for immigrants to come did have a purpose.

John_G_Jones

Thrugelmir wrote: »

On an annual basis the UK runs a deficit that requires funding. Selling assets has it's limitations. As the profits from said assets aren't reinvested but transfered abroad.

Wealth gap is increasing. More so where the equity in property is inherited.

Better educated but greater number of semi skilled jobs. Fewer people are trained with real skills. As a result skills entirely die out.

Ask the public sector about wage growth and many in the private sector. Austerity is alive and kicking. Wages will be determined at a global level in some industries. There's no automatic right because cost of living is higher.

You’ve dodged rather than responded to most of the items that I posted. The “right” deficit is probably not zero, and we are dropping from too high a level, so how is pointing out that we still have a deficit a response?

On wage growth, your answer is just dishonest, wages are growing, it will always be the case that some wages are falling, no matter how strong the economy, and civil service wages needed to stagnate as they had been inflated ludicrously under Labour.

And wealth gap is meaningless. A recent graduate about to start in banking on £100k Lee year has negative wealth, a baby who’s been given a silver sixpence is more wealthy than half of the world.

Our economy is the fastest growing European G7 economy, cherry picking a few people who are struggling doesn’t even speak to the point, let alone refute it.

Thrugelmir

John_G_Jones wrote: »

Our economy is the fastest growing European G7 economy, cherry picking a few people who are struggling doesn’t even speak to the point, let alone refute it.

Maybe. Correspondingly the UK has the highest levels of consumer debt and has benefitted from over £30 billion being parachuted into the economy on the back of PPI refunds. Things need to be kept in context. With the main negative being low productivity. It's productivity that drives wealth in the form of wages. People to need to generate more. Not rely on rising property prices or a falling £ to boost the value of their investments.

You’ve dodged rather than responded to most of the items that I posted. The “right” deficit is probably not zero, and we are dropping from too high a level, so how is pointing out that we still have a deficit a response?

Debt needs to be serviced. As Carney said a while back. The UK is dependent upon the charity of strangers. When the DMO is forced to offer higher rates of interest on the accumulated debt pile. We'll all need to put our hands in our pockets. QE has merely provided relief not the solution. That needs to come from within.

snowqueen555

John_G_Jones wrote: »

On wage growth, your answer is just dishonest, wages are growing, it will always be the case that some wages are falling, no matter how strong the economy, and civil service wages needed to stagnate as they had been inflated ludicrously under Labour.

Have you actually looked at civil service salaries? They are definitely not inflated.

AG47

30% down will just be the start, and the falling property market will be the least of the worries for the uk as no deal chaos ensues

phillw

AG47 wrote: »

30% down will just be the start, and the falling property market will be the least of the worries for the uk as no deal chaos ensues

I agree with the latter, but the reports I read said "up to 30%" not "at least 30%".

I don't know how they can be so sure, but they are saying that you won't lose more than 30% of the value on your property. It's probably limited to certain areas and individual cases, not that 30% will be wiped off the value of property in the uk.

I think we've been through enough property crashes now to have figured out how to avoid too much damage. So this is one of the things I'm not that worried about.

If prices drop too much then a lot of people will either not move or use a rent to buy mortgage to buy another property. Developers will put building projects on hold until the prices bounce back.