30% fall in property if no deal brexit

Crashy_Time

ess0two wrote: »

I admire your optimism, you'll probably find all the decent properties will be off the table, perhaps the odd distressed owner will need to sell.

ALL the decent properties will be off the table? That is almost as preposterous as the idea of "No Deal" being taken off the table. Everyone is affected by the three D`s for example, no matter how "decent" their property. People will just have to get used to getting less for their property, the same as they will get used to the fact that we are leaving the EU, deal or no deal.

ess0two

Crashy_Time wrote: »

ALL the decent properties will be off the table? That is almost as preposterous as the idea of "No Deal" being taken off the table. Everyone is affected by the three D`s for example, no matter how "decent" their property. People will just have to get used to getting less for their property, the same as they will get used to the fact that we are leaving the EU, deal or no deal.

Yes off the table, if people don't need to sell they won't, they'll just wait till prices rise again, for some that may not be possible.


How come you didn't mop up on the last crash? because exactly what I've said happened.

phillw

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Everyone is affected by the three D`s for example, no matter how "decent" their property.

1. Debt, lenders are generally willing to let you stay in a property now if you try hard enough. We're not going to see a repeat of the 80's crash where people did make a killing on house repossessions.

2. Divorce, often one person keeps the house. In rare cases both parties continue living there, I know someone who put a partition wall down the middle. Divorce rates go down during economic hard times. You gotta love cold hard calculating people, they wait until the house prices spring back up before claiming their half.

3. Death, rent the property out.

In the last 12 months property prices have dropped up to 25%. In Westminster, the second most expensive area, typical prices fell by a quarter (24.8%), from £1.93m to £1.45m.

Why are you waiting?

Autumn86

phillw wrote: »

If there are cash rich FTB with mortgage offers in place then why do you think the prices will fall by 30%?

Those kind of drops will be in London on properties that people on MSE are unlikely to be buying.


You're a real catch.

I literally am getting paid (by taxpayer funded money) to sit on a comfy sofa, drinking coffee, and browsing this site/any sites I want, to pass the time at work. :beer:


And thanks, I like to think of myself as being 'Resourceful' and 'An Opportunist'. :T

Autumn86

ess0two wrote: »

Is that scenario many will look to keep hold rather than sell and move to cheaper, SMI from the gov will be available.

You may drop lucky,but I think property choices will be limited?

The apartment complex that I've already decided to buy a flat in are properties typically rented by wealthy foreign uni-students/couples, as it's a complex/community not far from a large university.

So rents are quite high £900-950p/m for 2-bedroom apartment, but they sell for 180k, as ultimately during non-term time landlords who own the properties will be holding empty flats.

Hopefully brexit will crush the university system/deter all foreign students too, thus making the landlords who own these places desperate to unload/forced to sell to cover their own mortgage repayments on the place, creating even lower prices for me to mop up. :T

Herzlos

What makes you think those flats won't still be in demand post crash?
You may find that people downsize into them, and they are presumably making a tidy profit.


It's also worth remembering that for these large developers, it's usually better to just sit on empty stock until the downturn ends instead of liquidating. If you think it's a good investment cheap enough and that prices will normalize over a decade, why don't you think a multi-million company will do the same thing?
Again we've already seen it - lots of the super high end London flats have been taken off the market and are sitting empty until things improve. The developers could sell them off at cost now, but are chosing to sit on them and sell later when the demand comes back.

Autumn86 wrote: »

I'm more hoping that lots of couples (primarily already pregnant/with kids) will need to upgrade to a bigger property due to family expansion, but unable to afford to do so within that area and/or struggling with job insecurity/redundancy, thus forcing them to sell, even if in negative-equity, just to be able to relocate to a cheaper area/back into rental accommodation funded by benefits

What makes you think they'll sell up? If they need somewhere bigger but can't afford it they'll just stay put and potentially extend. That's what's happened every other time property prices have dropped.



There will be plenty of reposessions on the market from people who have lost jobs and need to free up capital, but nothing like as many as you expect as the banks would rather not kick them out. There's also things like equity release, lodgers, rentals and so on.



Potentially the ones where it is viable to sell up and downsize are going to be from houses well out of your mortgagable range. Your £20k deposit will get you a mortgage up to about £100k (£200k from your £40k deposit), tops. At £100k, it's really not worth the hassle selling to move down to a £50k house - after costs you'll probably get nothing other than a lower payment. However, if you're selling from a £1,000,000 house down to a £250,000 house, it'll be worth doing. But again it'd only be the desperate doing so as the downsizers will get absolutely hosed if there's a 30% property price drop.

Thus opening their property up as available for people like me to buy for a low price. :beer:

And you'll probably find yourself losing out on all the good ones to the actual cash buyers.

MobileSaver

Autumn86 wrote: »

Hopefully brexit will crush the university system ... creating even lower prices for me to mop up.

Your fundamental problem is that you cannot afford to buy these properties on your own without help from a lender which means you are always at their mercy as to whether they will lend or not and on what terms. In a falling market that becomes harder and harder.

This means that it is invariably people like me buying with all cash who are able to "mop up" any bargains. As the old adage goes, if you want to see who will own property after a crash, take a look at who owns property before the crash.

Whatever you do just don't make the mistake of Crashy Time and kid yourself that you can time the market; if you do you'll end up a decade or two down the road kicking yourself that you didn't get on the property ladder when you could.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

1. Debt, lenders are generally willing to let you stay in a property now if you try hard enough. We're not going to see a repeat of the 80's crash where people did make a killing on house repossessions.

Not Debt but Distress. Financial.

Loss of job, loss of income due to health and pregnancy etc, reduction in hours worked, unexpected bills etc etc.

Given the poor level of savings in this country. A real problem for many many people. Once times get tougher.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Not Debt but Distress. Financial.

Loss of job, loss of income due to health and pregnancy etc, reduction in hours worked, unexpected bills etc etc.

Given the poor level of savings in this country. A real problem for many many people. Once times get tougher.

If you end up on benefits then you can claim SMI and then you can keep your house. This isn't the 1980's or 1990's crash.

The houses that are losing a large value are the ones that only the super rich can afford.

Jonbvn

Autumn86 wrote: »

I literally am getting paid (by taxpayer funded money) to sit on a comfy sofa, drinking coffee, and browsing this site/any sites I want, to pass the time at work. :beer:


And thanks, I like to think of myself as being 'Resourceful' and 'An Opportunist'. :T

I wouldn't get out of bed for that money.:p