30% fall in property if no deal brexit

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

It’s looki like no deal

No deal means falling property and rents

Given your record on predictions we’ve just exhaled a collective sigh of relief.

snowqueen555

westernpromise wrote: »

What part of the country are you in?

A big city in south of England :j

Am thinking of relocating up north, could get a mortgage very easily in places like Liverpool/Manchester, as long as I find a steady job. But again, away from family and friends, it is a tough decision to make.

AG47

lisyloo wrote: »

Given your record on predictions we’ve just exhaled a collective sigh of relief.

Yes me too, a big sigh of relief. Finally a large correction in property of at least 30%

Yes I correctly predicted the fall from grace of Deutsche bank, it’s happening exactly as I predicted :T

MobileSaver

AG47 wrote: »

Finally a large correction in property of at least 30%

When will this correction happen? 30% off by Christmas this year?

AG47 wrote: »

Yes I correctly predicted the fall from grace of Deutsche bank, it’s happening exactly as I predicted

Er, no. You predicted DB would go bust in 2017, your prediction was completely and utterly wrong...

AG47

MobileSaver wrote: »

When will this correction happen? 30% off by Christmas this year?



Er, no. You predicted DB would go bust in 2017, your prediction was completely and utterly wrong...

It’s not me that’s saying it, I’m quoting Mark Carney the governor of the Bank of England saying 30% crash if no deal brexit.

I correctly predicted DB would have a huge crash and that is what has happened.

If you don’t call a fall from share price 130 right down to 6 a collapse then I don’t know what is

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

It’s not me that’s saying it, I’m quoting Mark Carney the governor of the Bank of England saying 30% crash if no deal brexit

Mark Carney has a nickname of unreliable boyfriend.

But apart from that this is a worst case scenario and you are putting it out there as a racing certainty.

If you are going to quote things you need to get the context right.

Let me correct it for you.

Unreliable boyfriend says worst case scenario is 30% off house prices if we get no deal (which parliament are against).

Malthusian

Surely the worst case scenario would be a total breakdown in society at which point houses crash by 100%.

Or if that's got a 0% chance of happening, then surely it's conceivable that houses could fall back to 2013 levels. Which would be a 31% crash, i.e. worse than Carney's worst-case scenario.

"Worst case scenario" here means "Something that I want people to believe will happen, but when it doesn't happen, I'll just say it was a worst-case scenario."

This is a type of unfalsifiable prediction, i.e. a theory that is impossible to prove wrong, i.e. a worthless waste of breath.

People like Mark Carney who embody the concept of "a stupid person's idea of a clever person" absolutely love unfalsifiable predictions. If it was physically possible they would marry an unfalsifiable prediction and have lots of unfalsifiable babies.

Stupid people expect people like Mark Carney to be able to predict the economy and steer it accordingly, which is impossible (there is no evidence that anyone can do this consistently, and if Carney could he'd be a billionaire and wouldn't be bothering with the Bank of England job). As Bank of England governor you have the difficult task of pontificating about the future direction of the economy without saying too many things that will come back to bite you in the bottom in a year's time. The answer? Unfalsifiable predictions. "I am cautiously optimistic." "Sterling faces strong headwinds but a short-term rally is possible." "The worst-case scenario is a 30% fall." "Deutsche Bank will go bust, some day."

lisyloo

There are a lot of people who will try to make sure the worst case scenario doesn’t happen e.g. parliament, the EU and in the event of a total breakdown of society then the army.

I guess this depends on whether you’re an optimist or pessimist.

It’s a bit like getting on an airplane.
There’s a few terrorists out there trying to kill you, but a whole army of businesses, engineers, governments who don’t want you to die because it’s expensive and bad press.

Most of the time the good guys win and it’s better for you mentally, physically, emotionally and economically to believe things will be ok.

My money (quite literally) is on us leaving with a deal.
My investment portfolio is predicated on that, although it is balanced for risk and does ok when sterling falls.

AG47

No deal come Halloween means at least 30% crash, and all kinds of other chaos

triathlon

AG47 wrote: »

No deal come Halloween means at least 30% crash, and all kinds of other chaos

How many decades have you been repeating that while prices have risen 300%?