Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Rinoa

Honda have seen falling sales figures in the EU for some time. In 2007 they sold over 300,000 in the EU - last year just 130.000.

Even if they built a new factory in the EU to replace UK production, they'd still be making cars EU citizens don't want to buy.

Which is why they're retreating back to Japan.

Of course, this is unlikely to stop remainers gleefully spouting ill-informed nonsense in pursuit of their 'told-you-so' moment.

SouthLondonUser

The Financial Times has a different interpretation to that of many Brexiters about the EU-Japan trade deal.

https://www.ft.com/content/34161836-3425-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5

At the UK’s urging, the recently enacted EU-Japan free trade deal will cut Europe’s tariffs on Japanese automobiles to zero. That was meant to help Japanese manufacturers in the UK — but also makes it easy to shift production to Japan.

It would be interesting to understand more.

spikyone wrote: »

I don't believe the negotiation process has been handled at all well. But that's because we have a Remainer-led government opposed by a weak Eurosceptic.

1) Whose fault is it if May is the PM? An election was called right after the referendum!
2) Who would you have wanted to be PM and to lead the negotiations? Boris? Farage? Gove? Rees-Mogg? I have not exactly heard lots of very constructive proposals from those guys recently…
Even if you think that another PM would have secured a better deal (a laughable notion, but I appreciate I won’t convince you), the point is that the current mess and uncertainty may have well been the final nail in the coffin for the Swindon plant. According to the press, it wasn’t exactly doing particularly well, but it hadn’t been doing well for a while. Why close it now? Maybe Brexit is totally irrelevant. Or maybe it was the final nail in the coffin.

Rinoa wrote: »

Even if they built a new factory in the EU to replace UK production, they'd still be making cars EU citizens don't want to buy.

Which is why they're retreating back to Japan.

Of course, this is unlikely to stop remainers gleefully spouting ill-informed nonsense in pursuit of their 'told-you-so' moment.

I have seen Brexiteers blaming the EU-Japan free trade deal for the decision to close the Swindon plant. I have, however, not seen you correcting their “ill-informed nonsense” and explaining to them it’s to do with Honda’s poor sales, not with the trade deal. Will you be doing so anytime soon?

spikyone

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

1) Whose fault is it if May is the PM? An election was called right after the referendum!
2) Who would you have wanted to be PM and to lead the negotiations? Boris? Farage? Gove? Rees-Mogg? I have not exactly heard lots of very constructive proposals from those guys recently…
Even if you think that another PM would have secured a better deal (a laughable notion, but I appreciate I won’t convince you), the point is that the current mess and uncertainty may have well been the final nail in the coffin for the Swindon plant. According to the press, it wasn’t exactly doing particularly well, but it hadn’t been doing well for a while. Why close it now? Maybe Brexit is totally irrelevant. Or maybe it was the final nail in the coffin.

1) We had a choice, at the last general election, between TM and Jeremy Corbyn. I shudder to think how much worse things would have been under Corbyn. He's Eurosceptic, but apart from some misguided Robin Hood antics and a desire to renationalise everything, he doesn't really have any policies.

2) I don't think that it should have been a dictatorial process; this issue is bigger than party or tribal politics. Whoever we elected as PM should have sought out senior Leave-supporting MPs on both sides of the house to form a working group to define what we wanted to achieve, and only once they had clear (though not necessarily public) objectives should we have triggered A50. Sometimes the best course as a leader is to realise that others are better placed than you to address an issue.
Of course, that sort of thing should have been discussed before Cameron even offered the referendum without a plan B. I always thought that was a shame - other than his handling of Brexit, he'd been doing a fairly decent job as PM.

I mentioned the reasons for Honda closing Swindon now in my previous post. Honda have been gradually moving new models away from Swindon for some time: the Jazz in 2014 (where production moved back to Japan), the CR-V last year (where production moved away from the UK in a decision taken long before the Brexit vote - we didn't get the 5th generation CR-V in Swindon), and the Accord long before that.

European sales of the Civic have been tanking for years. Sales that barely dipped below 70,000 between 1997-2010 - and exceeded 100,000 in a few years - have since plodded along around 45,000. Put another way; the eight best-selling cars in the UK last year each sold more here than Honda Civics in all of Europe. Europeans don't buy many Hondas.
Simply, it makes no sense to run two factories in Europe (if you include Turkey) to support such weak local sales. The closure coincides with the introduction of a new model in a couple of years, and the decision to consolidate manufacturing at the same time. It's not great news for the UK, nor Swindon itself, but looking at the sales figures and Honda's recent history this was inevitable with or without Brexit.

Herzlos

movilogo wrote: »

Before Brexit, whom people used to blame whenever a company announced some job losses?

Whatever was responsible for it at the time. Which is why Brexit is being blamed for a lot of UK firms going under or international firms moving resources out of the UK.

Why EU was not held responsible when millions of people lost jobs in 2008-9?

Why woud the EU be held responsible for a financial collapse that started with US sub-prime mortgages?

sevenhills

movilogo wrote: »

Before Brexit, whom people used to blame whenever a company announced some job losses?
Why EU was not held responsible when millions of people lost jobs in 2008-9?

When some of the car plants opened up in the UK, it was said being in the EU was a factor.
Now they, more than one, are leaving. Would they still be leaving if tariffs were payable on sales into the UK?


In relation to the economy, I saw an article about many workers having a pension forced upon them, or an increase if they already have one.
Growth is already lower, these new pension charges will mean workers have less money to spend.

movilogo

UK unemployment rate is lowest since 1975.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45181079

Interesting that it was lowest when UK just joined EU and when it is about to leave.

Tromking

movilogo wrote: »

UK unemployment rate is lowest since 1975.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45181079

Interesting that it was lowest when UK just joined EU and when it is about to leave.

Wages rising and EU workers reducing...........Hmmmmm.

Thrugelmir

sevenhills wrote: »

Growth is already lower, these new pension charges will mean workers have less money to spend.

Pensions aren't charges. They are savings. Without savings what will people have to spend in retirement.

Short termism is why we fail in this country. If you look at all the major German companies they all actually contributed to Hitlers war effort. Majority still in German ownership too. That's how one controls ones own destiny.

sevenhills

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Pensions aren't charges. They are savings. Without savings what will people have to spend in retirement.

Short termism is why we fail in this country.

But the new pension payments will mean the money is not being spend in the consumer economy, but saved in the pension sector.

Thrugelmir

sevenhills wrote: »

But the new pension payments will mean the money is not being spend in the consumer economy, but saved in the pension sector.

To be spent at a later date. The money saved will be invested. Some in UK companies. Hopefully this will stop more falling into foreign ownership. Thereby retaining the profits made by said companies in the UK.