Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

smipsy

I'm calling it, Toyota is the next one to bail for reasons totally not related to Brexit, in light with the "no jobs will be lost", "EU will have fallen apart by March 2019" (though in all fairness, there's still a month, so i'm gonna let people have this one for now ) and "easiest trade deal in history" clairvoyant predictions.

Tromking

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

You mean the plant being closed in Turkey? But isn't that linked to the Swindon plant, as in one produces for the other, or something like that?

Why is Toyota not closing its EU plants, then?

Why would Toyota close its EU plants?
Unlike Honda it doesn't want (yet at least) to repatriate its manufacturing back to Japan.
I know you're desperate for this to be a Brexit story, but it clearly isn't.
I wonder if the closure of the Australasian car plants by Japanese firms a few years back was also the result of free trade deals being signed?

SouthLondonUser

Brexiters are saying that the EU-Japan trade deal means that Japan can produce in Japan and export to the EU more easily (although, in reality, as the Financial Times pointed out, tariffs will be reduced by 2027, not immediately).

However, there are other Japanese plants in the EU, like Toyota’s plants in France, Portugal and the Czech Republic. AFAIK those are not being closed. To recap: we have Japanese manufacturers with plants across the EU. Yet only one British plant is being closed, for now (and another British plant, the Nissan one, being scaled down, if I understand correctly). If the EU-Japan trade deal applies to all the Japanese plants in the EU, but only the British plants are suffering, this would seem to suggest a combination of 1) the EU-Japan trade deal is not the driver 2) the different manufacturers are assessing risk and strategy very differently 3) something unique about the UK, which does not apply to the other EU countries with Japanese plants, might maybe be affecting the decision; I wonder what this could possibly be…

Hope it’s clearer now

SouthLondonUser

smipsy wrote: »

"EU will have fallen apart by March 2019"

This has always been a favourite of mine. It's a bit like saying: I'm going to chop off one of my legs now, because, you know, I think the future is dire and I may need to chop off both soon...

smipsy

i like how no one thinks that Honda isn't going to mention Brexit, as all it will do is anger and poke the ever-so-loving and delightful part of the population that wants to leave (whose finesse and politeness has been proven time and time again).

hell, most of the people around Honda itself were voting to leave, blame them and i wouldn't be surprised if they torched the place down

spikyone

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Brexiters are saying that the EU-Japan trade deal means that Japan can produce in Japan and export to the EU more easily (although, in reality, as the Financial Times pointed out, tariffs will be reduced by 2027, not immediately).

However, there are other Japanese plants in the EU, like Toyota’s plants in France, Portugal and the Czech Republic. AFAIK those are not being closed. To recap: we have Japanese manufacturers with plants across the EU. Yet only one British plant is being closed, for now (and another British plant, the Nissan one, being scaled down, if I understand correctly). If the EU-Japan trade deal applies to all the Japanese plants in the EU, but only the British plants are suffering, this would seem to suggest a combination of 1) the EU-Japan trade deal is not the driver 2) the different manufacturers are assessing risk and strategy very differently 3) something unique about the UK, which does not apply to the other EU countries with Japanese plants, might maybe be affecting the decision; I wonder what this could possibly be…

Hope it’s clearer now

Where is your evidence that "only the British plants are suffering"? To clarify; the reason that Nissan are not making the X-Trail in the UK is that it was only the diesel version planned for there, and that diesel has been hit hardest by recent changes in the automotive industry. If it were a question of EU vs non-EU, Nissan have other plants inside the EU that would have been suitable for manufacturing this new car (remembering that it's a new model, and would have required fresh investment in whichever plant was making it). Instead they're moving a very low volume diesel variant to be manufactured alongside petrol X Trails - which happen to be made in Japan. Nissan will continue to produce a huge number of high volume cars in the UK.
Honda are pulling out of Turkey as well as the UK, again there's no suggestion of this being a Brexit-based decision.

There's no evidence of Japanese companies closing their sites in the UK whilst continuing to manufacture in the EU. If Toyota were closing their plants in the UK, you might have a point. If Nissan were closing their plant in the UK, you might have a point.

SouthLondonUser

spikyone wrote: »

Where is your evidence that "only the British plants are suffering"?

I am not aware of other Japanese plants in the rest of the EU being closed.
Or of other manufacturers reversing their initial decision to build a model in a specific EU country.
I am, however, not an industry expert, so happy to be proven wrong.

spikyone wrote: »

To clarify; the reason that Nissan are not making the X-Trail in the UK

You should specify: not making any more, after declaring in 2016 that they would.

The decision to build there was announced in 2016. Back then, diesel had already been hit hard. Maybe it's been hit harder in the meanwhile than they imagined; or maybe *cough* Brexit *cough*

spikyone wrote: »

Honda are pulling out of Turkey as well as the UK, again there's no suggestion of this being a Brexit-based decision.

There's no evidence of Japanese companies closing their sites in the UK whilst continuing to manufacture in the EU. If Toyota were closing their plants in the UK, you might have a point. If Nissan were closing their plant in the UK, you might have a point.

But, again, isn't the Turkish plant linked to the British one somehow? As far as I understand they are not two separate plants producing totally unrelated and independent parts.

Let me ask you these questions, which should be easy to answer regardless of your political stance:

1) Regardless of your view on Remain vs Leave, how would you describe the negotiation process so far? Do you think there's been clarity, it's been a mess or what?

2) Do you think this negotiation process helps businesses plan for the future, or do you think it adds to the uncertainty?

spikyone

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I am not aware of other Japanese plants in the rest of the EU being closed.

Honda don't have any other plants in the EU, except for Turkey, which builds cars for the EU and is also closing.
Nissan haven't closed anything anywhere. The X-Trail was an outlier model; a niche variant of a niche car.
Toyota haven't closed anything anywhere.

So there is no evidence that we're losing plants and the rest of the EU isn't.

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

You should specify: not making any more, after declaring in 2016 that they would.

The decision to build there was announced in 2016. Back then, diesel had already been hit hard. Maybe it's been hit harder in the meanwhile than they imagined; or maybe *cough* Brexit *cough*

The initial scandal at VW happened in late 2015, at other manufacturers it was later. The hit on sales had not significantly taken effect by the time of Nissan's initial announcement.

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

But, again, isn't the Turkish plant linked to the British one somehow? As far as I understand they are not two separate plants producing totally unrelated and independent parts.

Turkey makes the Civic saloon. Swindon makes the Civic hatchback. Similar cars, but Turkey is not dependent on Swindon.

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Let me ask you these questions, which should be easy to answer regardless of your political stance:

1) Regardless of your view on Remain vs Leave, how would you describe the negotiation process so far? Do you think there's been clarity, it's been a mess or what?

2) Do you think this negotiation process helps businesses plan for the future, or do you think it adds to the uncertainty?

I don't believe the negotiation process has been handled at all well. But that's because we have a Remainer-led government opposed by a weak Eurosceptic.
I do not think that the current situation is helpful to businesses.

Neither of those points, though, are relevant to whether leaving or remaining per se is a good idea, or to whether Honda's decision is related to Brexit. They're moving away from the UK and Turkey at the end of the current model's life-cycle.
As for speculation on the timing, Honda need to start preparing for the introduction of the next gen Civic at some point, and at that point it is inevitable that they would have to decide on its manufacturing location. That decision has probably been taken recently, and it is simply not possible to keep such decisions quiet, especially when they mean closure of another plant.

movilogo

Before Brexit, whom people used to blame whenever a company announced some job losses?

Why EU was not held responsible when millions of people lost jobs in 2008-9?

smipsy

movilogo wrote: »

Why EU was not held responsible when millions of people lost jobs in 2008-9?

because it was obvious where the mess came from, and (at least at that time) people weren't looking for scapegoats based on tribalism