Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

triathlon

Tromking wrote: »

A recession borne out of a 2% drop in growth in 2020 and then a return to growth in 2021!
Is that it?

Far worse than 2% and with a snowball effect after that only getting bigger. Do you honestly think Donald Trump is our saviour?, one funny look from Boris or anyone from Britain that wrongs him in anyway will result in him turning his back on us.

You lot will get your cheap houses in the same way Albania or Yemen has cheap homes

Sailtheworld

Tromking wrote: »

A recession borne out of a 2% drop in growth in 2020 and then a return to growth in 2021!
Is that it?

They also said borrowing could go up £30bn a year in the event of a recession.

I've not watched the debate much recently - is the brexit dividend still a thing?

lisyloo

The forecast used by the OBR is less severe than those of the Bank of England and the Treasury.
In November, the Bank said a no-deal outcome could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the 2008 financial crisis.
The economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, the Bank said.
The Treasury meanwhile has predicted a £90bn hit to the economy by 2035 - although prominent eurosceptics dispute this view.
In a comment piece for the Telegraph newspaper earlier this week, Conservative backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg called the forecast "silliness", adding that a no-deal scenario could instead boost the economy by £80bn.

My conclusion is that no one knows, take your pick.

Tromking

triathlon wrote: »

Far worse than 2% and with a snowball effect after that only getting bigger. Do you honestly think Donald Trump is our saviour?, one funny look from Boris or anyone from Britain that wrongs him in anyway will result in him turning his back on us.

I was merely responding to the figures and projections by the OBR in your link. The ease in which the UK gets a free trade deal with the US is another matter.

Sailtheworld

lisyloo wrote: »

My conclusion is that no one knows, take your pick.

That's exactly what the people who want us to leave with two fingers to the EU want you to conclude. It's true that nobody has a crystal ball but that truth is being used as a smokescreen.

We've got the OBR, treasury, BoE and a preponderance of other economists highlighting the negative consequences of a no deal brexit. The BBC pointing out that Jacob Rees-Mogg thinks the opposite doesn't somehow balance that out.

The best liars use truth to hide their lies. You'll be seeing some more soon i.e. economists aren't always correct (so think they're wrong) / Mark Carney probably thinks Brexit is stupid (so he must be lying) / The OBR are funded by the government (so they must be part of a remainer plot).

kingstreet

Even Rees-Mogg said it might take 50 years to recover from Brexit.

Not an expert, so must be right!

Sailtheworld

Not the best of days for Boris. Positive steps to prevent him by-passing parliament to get a no-deal brexit through have been passed by parliament. Not 'thwarted' exactly but a step in the right direction.

And his stand-up comedy routine with a kipper have been shown to be based on flawed information. That's bad enough but even the Telegraph have called him out.

Will it make much of a difference to the faithful - no of course not.

cogito

kingstreet wrote: »

Even Rees-Mogg said it might take 50 years to recover from Brexit.

Not an expert, so must be right!

No he didn’t. Why don’t you google what he actually said and then come back and correct yourself.

Zero_Gravitas

cogito wrote: »

No he didn’t. Why don’t you google what he actually said and then come back and correct yourself.

So here's what he actually said (from the Channel 4 interview)

Rees-Mogg: “We will know at some point, of course we will. But it’s a question of timescale.”
Guru-Murthy: “So how long have you got?”
Rees-Mogg: “We won’t know the full economic consequences for a very long time, we really won’t.”
Guru-Murthy: “Of course not, but I mean we’ll have an indication. We’ll know if there’s been chaos, we’ll know if there have been job losses.”
Rees-Mogg: “The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years.”

So how would you interpret what Rees-Mogg said?

.string.

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

So here's what he actually said (from the Channel 4 interview)

Rees-Mogg: “We will know at some point, of course we will. But it’s a question of timescale.”
Guru-Murthy: “So how long have you got?”
Rees-Mogg: “We won’t know the full economic consequences for a very long time, we really won’t.”
Guru-Murthy: “Of course not, but I mean we’ll have an indication. We’ll know if there’s been chaos, we’ll know if there have been job losses.”
Rees-Mogg: “The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years.”

So how would you interpret what Rees-Mogg said?

i think merely that to understand the historic consequences of an event, you have to evaluate it from a historical perspective.