US Correction

System

MaxiRobriguez wrote: »

Given not a lot has changed in the past three months (We knew about Brexit, the trade war, QE ending, interest rates going up, probable recession at some point, tax cut priced in etc etc) then I see it as an opportunity to pick up the same things I might have picked up a few months ago for a discount.

I spent half the year building the cash reserves for this time. I'm buying, and I'm holding for multi-decades.

You have a vague and superficial knowledge of these things, but markets expectations change as we learn more details about these things. What is going to happen with Brexit (no deal, deal, second referendum)? When is the US economy going to slow down? How fast are interest rates going to rise? Etc, etc. You might have learnt nothing in the past few months, but many investors have figured out that the bull market is probably over. The price of shares a few months ago is irrelevant to their price now. Markets are forward looking not backward looking.

Asghar

Novice_investor101 wrote: »

I'm annoyed - L&G international index trust was the cheapest it's been for nearly a year

It was cheaper at the end of March this year for over a week.

The price is not going to move higher that much today anyway, if at all.

MaxiRobriguez

Economic wrote: »

You have a vague and superficial knowledge of these things, but markets expectations change as we learn more details about these things. What is going to happen with Brexit (no deal, deal, second referendum)? When is the US economy going to slow down? How fast are interest rates going to rise? Etc, etc. You might have learnt nothing in the past few months, but many investors have figured out that the bull market is probably over. The price of shares a few months ago is irrelevant to their price now. Markets are forward looking not backward looking.

We haven't learned enough to warrant such a downturn. Just like previously we didn't know what sort of Brexit it will be, or how fast interest rates will rise etc.

Equities have been overpriced by traditional mechanisms for a long time, so they were due a fall, but there's no emphatic evidence like a recession that would force them lower still.

It might still happen, but it might not. But I was building up a dry powder fund in order to pick up equities when a significant fall happened. That's happened now, if they continue to go lower I will just buy more still.

Prism

Economic wrote: »

You might have learnt nothing in the past few months, but many investors have figured out that the bull market is probably over.

You seem to assume that this small percentage of investors who have sold some of their equities have some special insight that the rest of them don't. Maybe they are just wrong? The fact is that shares are cheaper today than they were a few months ago. Whether or not they deserve to be cheaper is not a question anyone can answer. The sellers think yes, the buyers think no. We have no idea what the huge percentage of those that have neither bought or sold actually think.

Aylesbury_Duck

I only started investing in the summer after good advice on here to reduce my cash savings and take some more risks by putting some into S&S ISAs. Between my wife and I we have been putting a few thousand each month into VLS100 and VLS40 to take us up to our £20k annual limit. We're down around 11% so far and are prepared that we may see them sink a lot further but it's a long term strategy and we're happily continuing to buy units that we hope will appreciate nicely when the markets recover, be that next year, in three, five, ten or more years' time. Better that than see it lose value in cash accounts over the same period.

Novice_investor101

Asghar wrote: »

It was cheaper at the end of March this year for over a week.

The price is not going to move higher that much today anyway, if at all.

Yes, I know is it was. I remember it being around the £1.28 a unit price in March. I'm leaving the Premium Bonds as they are for now ' just paying in the disposable money I've left from December. Actually hoping that unit prices stay as low, or lower, so I can average down a bit. Probably unpopular, but I'm also still paying into my UK all share & UK250 funds, & building up a cash lump sum to pay in if they continue to drop.

System

Prism wrote: »

You seem to assume that this small percentage of investors who have sold some of their equities have some special insight that the rest of them don't. Maybe they are just wrong? The fact is that shares are cheaper today than they were a few months ago. Whether or not they deserve to be cheaper is not a question anyone can answer. The sellers think yes, the buyers think no. We have no idea what the huge percentage of those that have neither bought or sold actually think.

I can't help thinking that many posters on this forum are in denial. The bull market has ended:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-27/euro-stoxx-50-enters-bear-market-as-year-end-rally-hope-vanishes
And after some market crashes it has taken over a decade for the real value of the S&P 500 to recover:
http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Prism

Economic wrote: »

I can't help thinking that many posters on this forum are in denial. The bull market has ended:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-27/euro-stoxx-50-enters-bear-market-as-year-end-rally-hope-vanishes

Basing long term investment choices on Bloomberg news - awesome idea.

And after some market crashes it has taken over a decade for the real value of the S&P 500 to recover:
http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Good job we haven't had a crash then. If you could tell me when it arrives I will be sure to continue to invest my monthly allocation exactly the same as I am right now.

Alexland

Economic, some of us have very long term outlooks so it really doesn't matter if the bull market has ended or not. Posting an inflation adjusted S&P500 graph isn't that helpful as we are seeking total return including compound dividend reinvestment. Our objective is to own higher proportions of these companies and the lower prices gives us a chance to achieve that.

Alex

System

Alexland wrote: »

Economic, some of us have very long term outlooks so it really doesn't matter if the bull market has ended or not. Posting an inflation adjusted S&P500 graph isn't that helpful as we are seeking total return including compound dividend reinvestment. Our objective is to own higher proportions of these companies and the lower prices gives us a chance to achieve that.

Alex

I think I know something about long term investing since I have been investing since I was a student in the 1980s, but my experience is not just limited to the recent bull market. In a bear market,shares get cheaper and cheaper, but if you want to continue with your foolish backward-looking approach to share valuation then that is your problem.