Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity

k6chris

bostonerimus wrote: »

Under WTO the UK could reduce tariffs, but it has to have the same tariff for every trading partner. If tariffs are low this could lead to an influx of inexpensive goods.....great for the consumer but possibly bad for UK industry and by extension eventually bad for the worker/consumer too.

This is the problem with all the simple 'solutions' for the Northerm Ireland border. Under WTO rules, whatever we agree between UK and Ireland re the border checks / customs agreement, we have to make available to every other country we deal with under WTO terms.

Hussel

kidmugsy wrote: »

If the population is eating cheaply why would you worry about a free trade deal?

Maybe because your population would be eating much lower quality food and most of your farmers would be bankrupt?

Thrugelmir

Apodemus wrote: »

Meat we can and do produce with plenty to spare, veggies on the other hand...

Most expert assessments for the farming industry suggest a fall in livestock values post-Brexit, which should translate into cheaper mince.

Nothing like growing ones own veggies.

Would take time for the UK meat industry to boost output. Tariffs would result in increased tax revenue. The Government could provide tax breaks to provide momentum. Then starts to address the issue of food miles.

kidmugsy

Hussel wrote: »

Maybe because your population would be eating much lower quality food and most of your farmers would be bankrupt?

About ruddy time our farmers received lower subsidies. Give them a ten year ramp-down and then they can survive as businesses or not.

Hussel

kidmugsy wrote: »

About ruddy time our farmers received lower subsidies. Give them a ten year ramp-down and then they can survive as businesses or not.

The answer is not, unless you drastically increase prices or lower standards. Which do you want? If you're happy to import food from countries far away from the UK with much lower food standards, then fine - it's a strategy, of sorts - although it definitely wasn't on the side of any red buses and I don't think much of the population will appreciate it - they've got used to reasonably priced, good quality food.

bostonerimus

Apodemus wrote: »

Meat we can and do produce with plenty to spare, veggies on the other hand...

Most expert assessments for the farming industry suggest a fall in livestock values post-Brexit, which should translate into cheaper mince.

....and either UK farmers losing a lot of money or requiring large government subsidies to compete with cheap foreign meat imports. Of course we could try to create the idyll of River Cottage where we are all growing our own food and keep livestock. That appeals to me, but it's not a viable economic strategy for a G7 country. Having a viable trading relationship with the EU seems like a starting point and then when the UK leaves it can start negotiating with the other big blocks, but at least the UK will have some trading continuity.

kidmugsy

Yeah, the population would have to get used to eating low quality meat from Australia, Canada, NZ, Argentina, Uruguay, and so on. Poor souls!

Hussel

kidmugsy wrote: »

Yeah, the population would have to get used to eating low quality meat from Australia, Canada, NZ, Argentina, Uruguay, and so on. Poor souls!

Sounds efficient - let's get our food from half-way round the world rather than grow/rear it nearby. Apart from New Zealand, I think all those countries have much lower animal welfare standards than the UK so I'm guessing you're promoting zero tariffs to allow in cheap meat from animals who have been treated worse than our current standards.
That's fine, as a proposition. Like I said though, I just don't think that's what the UK population as a whole wants and I'm not sure they've been told that that's what some are proposing.
I'm all for stopping rich landowners milking the CAP but I'll leave you to eulogise Patrick Minford's nutty ideas.

Apodemus

Broadly speaking, there is currently a net balance between imports and exports in sheep meat, with the exports going to Europe and the imports coming from New Zealand and Australia - the imports help with the seasonality of the product.

For beef we currently import a bit more than twice what we export, with the bulk of the imports coming from Ireland. It is probably this trade alone that is causing so much angst over the Irish border as it is vitally important to the Irish farming sector.

But these simple facts above hide a whole range of complications. As a nation, we export lamb carcasses to the EU, but re-import some of the cut meat. We export a lot of the offal from our domestic beef industry, providing value to by-products which help support the overall business. It is the same with dairy, at times exporting fresh milk and buying it back as cheese and so on.

The web of trading relationships is very complex - before you even start onto welfare standards, veterinary medicines etc!

FatherAbraham

bostonerimus wrote: »

You should already have an emergency find of maybe 6 months to a year's spending cash and some people would classify Brexit as an emergency. Of course if inflation takes off cash might not be the best place to have your money. I'd be tempted to keep the usual emergency fund and put anything spare into equities outside the UK......use a UK domiciled fund.

Thanks for responding to the substantive question.

Brexit is foreseeable, not an unexpected emergency. There is a finite chance of a no-deal Brexit, which few are predicting would be, in the short term, good for the economy.

Therefore it makes sense, to me, to insure against a liquidity squeeze by investing less over the next half year, and building a survival war-chest.

Your talk about exposure to inflation and holding extra-territorial assets are Investment considerations. Investment considerations are irrelevant in the short term. In absolute terms, I would lose little, if I held my regular investment contributions as bank deposits for half a year, and inflation doubles.

Having cash on hand if things get really sticky sound like a very good insurance policy to me.

I note that contributors with safe income, such as index-linked defined-benefit pensions in payment, or annuities, may not perceive any need to do these things - they are effectively insulated from the part of the economy where the rest of us live and work. This could explain why they prefer to talk about other things. For me, the price of minced meat was just one of many concrete indicators of a possible economic crisis for the unprepared.