Vanguard Funds

Manesova83

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Seriously, you think the past was a stable predictable place? Wow.

If you've just started investing, then at times of falling investments is the the best time to be buying investments for the long term, when they are cheap.

And you really need to read some history if you think the future was full of optimism at the times of great depression, WWII, Suez canal, Cuban missile crisis, the oil crisis, etc etc etc.

I never said that the past was a stable, predictable place. All I am saying is that there are several seemingly insurmountable problems that will probably come to a head during this century. These are bound to affect future growth and the very financial system itself.

People always say that historically, the market has always rebounded stronger - and they are right. But historically, all systems and empires rise and fall, so it is a matter of time until the current order of things collapses and is replaced by something else. In my mind, it seems fairly likely that this could happen during this century - something that may not bother older investors too much, but certainly should bother younger ones.

Apologies if I've gone off on a tangent. I merely wanted to know if people consider the pressing issues facing the human race when they talk about the market being a safe bet in the long term, and especially when talking about distant retirement..

Audaxer

Manesova83 wrote: »

I never said that the past was a stable, predictable place. All I am saying is that there are several seemingly insurmountable problems that will probably come to a head during this century. These are bound to affect future growth and the very financial system itself.

People always say that historically, the market has always rebounded stronger - and they are right. But historically, all systems and empires rise and fall, so it is a matter of time until the current order of things collapses and is replaced by something else. In my mind, it seems fairly likely that this could happen during this century - something that may not bother older investors too much, but certainly should bother younger ones.

If there are huge falls in markets it is more likely to bother retired investors who rely on their investments for income. It shouldn't be as much of a concern to younger investors, who will be investing at lower prices. If you are afraid of a total global collapse of markets that don't recover, your only other option would be not to invest for the future in even a pension, which would not be a very good decision to say the least.

dunstonh

but does anyone ever consider the fact that we may be entering completely new territory? I mean some of the issues facing the world are unprecedented - climate change being the obvious one. And when you consider the geopolitical tensions this will cause, it's easy to see that the future won't necessarily be a stable, predictable place.

Aren't most events over the last 300 years new and unprecedented?

Don't many of these changes mean new opportunities and disruptive technologies?

When in the last 300 years have we had 30 years of stability?

Alexland

Manesova83 wrote: »

But historically, all systems and empires rise and fall, so it is a matter of time until the current order of things collapses and is replaced by something else.

Well if you think the future might be so gloomy that you don't want to own what are currently considered valuable assets what options does that leave you with? I guess you could own rocks, interesting bits of string and Bitcoin hoping they might be the next big thing and condeming yourself to a certain gloomy future.

Alex

Alexland

Zorillo wrote: »

I'm just annoyed I topped up last week rather than this week.

I have a regular saver maturing tomorrow which will be going straight in. If it keeps going down then some bonds will get converted the week after.

Alex.

ColdIron

fiisch wrote: »

What I can't work out is... why shouldn't one try to time the markets in this scenario? I understand that we may still be a long way from the absolute bottom, but if you chuck in say an extra £5-10,000 during an obvious bear run, surely you are improving (but not guaranteeing) your odds of making greater returns when the market does eventually recover?

A single digit decline over a few weeks doesn't count as an 'obvious bear run'. There was a similar decline in February that sorted itself out within six weeks.

Nothing wrong with starting out by drip feeding regular amounts, the effects are largely psychological and will make little real difference in ten years but perhaps that's what needed at this stage for you. You could take emotion and judgement out of the equation by formulating a plan, x amount for y months, and stick to it rather than trying to chuck in a lump sum at the 'right' time

Manesova83

Alexland wrote: »

Well if you think the future might be so gloomy that you don't want to own what are currently considered valuable assets what options does that leave you with? I guess you could own rocks, interesting bits of string and Bitcoin hoping they might be the next big thing and condeming yourself to a certain gloomy future.

Alex

Obviously I do want to own stocks and shares, otherwise I wouldn't have made the decision to invest in them. I'm investing because I assume, like the past, the market will continue to grow. I was just pointing out that there are 'interesting' times ahead to say the least, and these things weigh on my mind when people talk about long-term growth or comfortable retirements. I was interested to know what others think, that's all.

Evesham_Hardcore

Thanks for the chat and glad to see a few other new investors chiming in.

I'm happy that my investment balance is good (as much as one can ever know, I suppose) and I know of course that to cash out based on the weekly / monthly wobbles is the worst option - I have my betfair account to cover that side!

I will continue paying in as planned and "console" myself that I'm buying my new funds at a lower price.

As has been said I haven't "lost" anything as such but I want to see those green numbers in the Charles Stanley dashboard so I can feel like wolf of wall street (+£12)

Jon

AlanP_2

Manesova83 wrote: »

Obviously I do want to own stocks and shares, otherwise I wouldn't have made the decision to invest in them. I'm investing because I assume, like the past, the market will continue to grow. I was just pointing out that there are 'interesting' times ahead to say the least, and these things weigh on my mind when people talk about long-term growth or comfortable retirements. I was interested to know what others think, that's all.

If you are self selecting individual company shares you might have a point. If you are using globally diversified funds then likely to be less of an issue I would have thought.

Take an S&P500 Tracker - Broadly covers the largest 500 companies on the US exchange. If half of those are businesses that "fail" because of climate change, or a 20 year trade war with China or whatever a different 250 companies will take their place in the S&P500 and you will still own your small part of them.

They may be companies that have worked out a way of making money from climate change or whatever else comes along - that's how capitalism works and has done for centuries.

If there is a cataclysmic, seismic shift in the world, and global warming could easily cause that, then all bets may be off. But is that REALLY likely to happen in your lifetime?

Nobody knows the future, all you can do is spread your risks around and keep on plugging away.

dunstonh

The only thing that is happening that could require some short-term attention is if a no-deal Brexit occurs with no measures put in place regarding financial services. If that happens, you will want to sell out of any non UK domiciled funds and switch to UK domiciled funds.

It's unlikely that will be an outcome but it is one of the Brexit potential preparations for a no-deal.

As for all other events, it is just business as usual. Nothing to see here.