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Brexit, Mark Carney and the housing market
Comments
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The drops were halted last time by central banks co-ordinating their interest rate cuts and money printing, that obviously isn`t happening this time around. Those actions were aimed at saving the wider financial system though, the property market being saved was just a lucky (if you had a big mortgage) side effect, this time around the property market is totally exposed (just look at transactions) and can`t be saved, so hopefully a lot of mortgage debtors have had the sense to pay down their loans?0
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Computer_Beginner wrote: »I agree with most of your post.
But I don't think it will be a BANKING crisis this time.
Governments have a habit of always "fighting the last war" and so banks have been made much stronger. In fact some of the hassles the government has given them is making HSBC consider gradually moving back to Asia (where it originated).
Ray Dalio said in his recent interview, that he thought the next crisis will have more of a social component to it. But I think he was talking more about the repercussions, rather than the triggers.
I don't know what will trigger the next crash. Each crash is slightly different.
If all the QE and zero rates has barely got any growth going after all these years I wouldn`t bet the house on them being able to bail out the banks in a real crisis, there are potential shadow banking/derivative effects that probably no one can predict IMO. A social component could be people declining to borrow money in the volumes that they have in the past, that would be an interesting popcorn session and absolutely not much the PTB could do about it?0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »If all the QE and zero rates has barely got any growth going after all these years I wouldn`t bet the house on them being able to bail out the banks in a real crisis, there are potential shadow banking/derivative effects that probably no one can predict IMO. A social component could be people declining to borrow money in the volumes that they have in the past, that would be an interesting popcorn session and absolutely not much the PTB could do about it?
I would not bet on people not borrowing money to buy a house in the future... Thats housepricecrash sort of logic..0
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