Large blocks of Premium bonds?

TUVOK

Is there any evidence that holding large blocks of Premium bonds leads to increased wins or is it purely every single bond number has the same chance of winning?

bowlhead99

TUVOK wrote: »

Is there any evidence that holding large blocks of Premium bonds leads to increased wins or is it purely every single bond number has the same chance of winning?

Every bond number has the same chance.

However, someone holding an old one pound bond from their childhood is not going to see many prizes on it (on average it will only win every twenty thousand months or more) while someone buying now with a big block of 50000 bonds might expect a couple of wins a month.

It tends to be that most of the big wins you see are relatively recent issues and large blocks, rather than being some old 1970s issue of the odd fiver's worth of bonds. But that's generally just because:

- bonds get redeemed and issued all the time, so most of those in issue seem to be newer rather than older;

- you haven't always been able to invest £50k at once and the minimum block size is now £100 rather than £1 or £5 or £50, so, now it seems that most are being won by people who have a large average block size, just because on average most people do have a relatively big block size if they have bought in recent years.

Basically a lot of prizes are going to people who have bought relatively large blocks relatively recently, but that'll be statistically consistent with the fact that more of the bonds have been issued recently rather than surviving for decades, and people buying those bonds more recently are buying bigger batches.

If you buy £1k today and £10k next month, the chance of any of them winning during 2019 is the same.

firestone

TUVOK wrote: »

Is there any evidence that holding large blocks of Premium bonds leads to increased wins or is it purely every single bond number has the same chance of winning?

Assume you know but - if you go to the NS&I premium bond checker page you can find details of that months bigger prizes down to i think £5000 this shows the size of holding and winning bond amount etc

eskbanker

firestone wrote: »

Assume you know but - if you go to the NS&I premium bond checker page you can find details of that months bigger prizes down to i think £5000 this shows the size of holding and winning bond amount etc

Indeed, this shows that someone with a £100 holding won £10,000 this month, a pretty decent return, and also that another person with a total holding of £1,300 won £50,000 from a block of 50, while a third won £100,000 from a block of £100 within a £1,000 holding.

Of course it doesn't list the 69.7bn bonds that won diddly squat though