Investing in fresh produce

Ciaran1994

Due to droughts and various other factors such as a decline in honey bee population it’s likely that harvests in the coming years will produce a low yield. Would it be wise to invest in fresh produce now while the price is relatively low?

TheShape

The fresh produce you invest in today won't be that fresh in the future though. How is this going to work?

sjp999

Big fridge?

Ciaran1994

Hmmm yes I understand the problem with fresh produce but say a publicly traded fruit and veg supplier, would their share prices skyrocket following a bad harvest?

jimjames

Ciaran1994 wrote: »

Hmmm yes I understand the problem with fresh produce but say a publicly traded fruit and veg supplier, would their share prices skyrocket following a bad harvest?

Not really, surely their base cost would go up if they're buying produce at a higher price?

ColdIron

Ciaran1994 wrote: »

Hmmm yes I understand the problem with fresh produce but say a publicly traded fruit and veg supplier, would their share prices skyrocket following a bad harvest?

If there was a bad harvest this would mean the supplier would supply less stuff. I can't see that having a positive effect on their share price. I suppose the extension would be that if they stopped supplying anything at all they'd have to be worth a fortune

Alexland

Ciaran1994 wrote: »

Due to droughts and various other factors such as a decline in honey bee population it’s likely that harvests in the coming years will produce a low yield. Would it be wise to invest in fresh produce now while the price is relatively low?

Unless this is uncommon knowledge then the market would have already priced this information into assets which might benefit from this circumstance.

Alex

dividendhero

Ciaran1994 wrote: »

Due to droughts and various other factors such as a decline in honey bee population

there's a lot of urban myths about bees and pollination, they're by no means the only pollinator and many dispute their numbers are in decline

le_loup

dividendhero wrote: »

there's a lot of urban myths about bees and pollination, they're by no means the only pollinator and many dispute their numbers are in decline

Yea. And many dispute that the globe is warming.
Well, that's the current buzz.

Apodemus

Sadly, while bee numbers in some places are seriously down, the problem is poorly presented in the press. Crops that don!!!8217;t rely on insect pollination are often lumped in with those that do and it is often presented as bees being the only pollinators (rather than one of the best pollinators). Poorly presented science simply gives the nay-sayers ample scope to rubbish the underlying problem.

As to the OP, the simplest (albeit very risky!) way to take a punt on price would be through the futures market. But like any market you are relying on having some personal knowledge or insight that is not already reflected in the market prices. Good luck with that one!

Malthusian

Go for a run. When food prices rise next year you can eat less to compensate.

The genius part of this strategy is that it works even if food prices go down.