“Identifying opportunities early is the name of the game”

aroominyork

The title paraphrases a recent post by a regular contributor. I have no idea how to set up a survey so I will ask as an open question: assuming the market keeps ticking upwards, what sector/region/country is going to be the surprise packet of the next three years?

bostonerimus

I don't know and I don't care and as a long term cap weighted tracker investor I don't waste any time worrying about it either. I have nothing more to contribute.

masonic

The big surprise of the next 3 years is likely to be that the market doesn't keep ticking upwards. Then there will be many opportunities, but few will be of a temperament to exploit them.

talexuser

The US because Trump would love a mini boom before the next election. Not the US because the bull run will end soon being overvalued. Europe because the EU will want to show the 26 that leaving has poor economic consequences for the UK and is not worth it. The UK because leaving the EU will result in a boom after successful negotiations. China because a growing middle class want an improved standard of living. Not China because debt gets out of control.
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mije1983

aroominyork wrote: »

what sector/region/country is going to be the surprise packet of the next three years?

If people knew that, they are unlikely to need, or even be posting on, a money saving forum

aroominyork

bostonerimus wrote: »

I don't know and I don't care and as a long term cap weighted tracker investor I don't waste any time worrying about it either. I have nothing more to contribute.

Nothing more?

kidmugsy

"is the name of the game": how wonderfully 1970s. If the next decade is like the 1970s any surprise packets are likely to be downwards. But here's a special tip: emerging markets almost never emerge and become developed markets. If you can spot one that will you may do well. But probably not.

ColdIron

'as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.'

aroominyork

ColdIron wrote: »

'as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.'

Yup, presumably Donald Rumsfeld is in wealth preservation funds... and has plenty of wealth to preserve.

Prism

I would say the next big thing will be good companies that make more profit than average or poor companies. I don't worry too much about region or sector.

Voyager2002

aroominyork wrote: »

The title paraphrases a recent post by a regular contributor. I have no idea how to set up a survey so I will ask as an open question: assuming the market keeps ticking upwards, what sector/region/country is going to be the surprise packet of the next three years?

Armenia, definitely.


Actually, the biggie could be Iran. Not feasible for most of us to invest there, but it offers some fantastic assets that are seriously undervalued. If the lunatics leave government and go back to the asylum where they belong, early investors there will reap the benefits on an industrial scale.


And then there's Russia... again paradise for a value investor, and things are so bad that there seems little scope for futher downward movement in prices. And again, if sanity comes to prevail then prices could move sharply upwards.