US ($) Currency Thread 1 (closed - use thread 2)

inspector_monkfish

poggs wrote: »

!!!!!! is going on?

Bank guy says bad things, pound crashes.
Bank guy says nice things, pound crashes.

Not fair. Harruph.

I want my $1.50........ Mr Fish promised me so he did.

:-)

However, still up against the yen so my new telly might be cheaper!

its all on rumours

talk of an announcement tomorrow that Q4 2008 GDP will be revised down, so gbp takes a hit

sell the rumour........

inspector_monkfish

Good Morning

Cable crept steadily higher overnight and was around 1.4540 as London opened up this morning.

Since then we have moved higher to 1.4600, and right now have fallen slightly lower to trade around 1.4580

UK GDP 2008 Q4 figures set to be released at 9.30am today

neilbond007

have to say i've been pleasantly surprised in the rate the last 2 morning... especially as it dipped so much yesterday for much of the afternoon / evening

inspector_monkfish

pre-gdp data, cable trading at 1.4560

inspector_monkfish

came in slightly better than expected
markets just soaking up data, unchanged at moment

inspector_monkfish

09:30 25Feb09 4Q GDP -1.5% QQ, UNCHANGED FROM FIRST EST
09:30 25Feb09 4Q GDP REVISED TO -1.9% YY; LAST EST -1.8% YY
09:30 25Feb09 4Q GDP FORECAST AT -1.6% QQ; -1.9% YY
09:30 25Feb09 3Q GDP REVISED TO -0.7% QQ FROM -0.6% QQ
09:30 25Feb09 3Q GDP REVISED TO +0.2% YY FROM +0.3% YY
09:30 25Feb09 4Q GDP YY DROP LARGEST SINCE 2Q 1991
09:30 25Feb09 4Q GDP HOUSEHOLD SPENDING QQ DECLINE LARGEST SINCE 2Q 1991
09:30 25Feb09 UK EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION GROWTH LOWEST SINCE 2Q 1994; +0.1%QQ
09:30 25Feb09 UK INVENTORIES QQ DROP LARGEST SINCE 4Q 1990
09:46 25Feb09 UK Q4 Household Spending Dives 0.7% But GDP Unch




LONDON--Spending by the U.K. consumer in the last three months of 2008 fell at its fastest pace since 1991, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday, while it left the U.K. economy's fourth-quarter contraction unchanged.

In the first revision of gross domestic product data, the ONS said the
economy contracted 1.5% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. However, the ONS said the economy fell 1.9% from the year earlier period, compared with the 1.8% originally reported.

Economists had expected a quarterly decline of 1.6% and an annual contraction of 1.9%.

GDP was dragged down in part by household expenditure, which fell 0.7% in the fourth quarter after two straight quarterly 0.2% declines.

The ONS also said compensation of employees rose 0.1%, less than the 0.4% increase in the previous quarter and the smallest rise since 1994 - clear evidence that the recession is curtailing wage growth.

The ONS also said there was a big draw down in inventories in the fourth
quarter, with manufacturing and retail firms in particular running down stocks. Inventories fell GBP2.6 billion in the quarter, the largest since 1990.

The ONS also revised previous GDP data. It reported the economy contracted 0.7% in the third quarter from a 0.6% quarterly contraction first reported. The economy grew 0.2% on the year.

inspector_monkfish

09:56 25Feb09-EUR ECON: Inventories and GDP

[09:56 EUR ECON: Inventories and GDP] London Feb 25
German Q4 GDP data showed a positive 0.5pp contribution from inventories while the UK Q$ GDP data this morning showed a negative 1.3pp contribution from inventories. For Germany the positive contribution from inventories bodes ill for growth going forward while for the UK the negative contribution should help limit the downside. What is clear from both sets of data is that government spending will play an increasingly important role in supporting GDP growth moving forward given the negative fundamental backdrop for consumption, investment and exports.

poggs

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

came in slightly better than expected
markets just soaking up data, unchanged at moment

Markets are wierd. They sell yesterday on the rumour that the figures would be bad.

So today the figures are better than expected so what happens?

CRASH!!!!!!!!!! down a full cent in 10 minutes. Cant fathom this at all.

All hail to the Fishter!

inspector_monkfish

poggs wrote: »

Markets are wierd. They sell yesterday on the rumour that the figures would be bad.

So today the figures are better than expected so what happens?

CRASH!!!!!!!!!! down a full cent in 10 minutes. Cant fathom this at all.

All hail to the Fishter!

baffles me everyday at the moment mate !!

its like all sense and normality left the markets about 6mths ago, and now they just do whatever they bl00dy well like !!

straight after figures it jumped up to 1.4588
then tumbled to 1.4490
now trading at 1.4510

inspector_monkfish

09:57 25Feb09 Cable: Twin UK clearer supply surprises long market

09:55 GMT - A couple of UK clearers have been seen wading in with [CABLE] supply post UK GDP data. Despite no change in Q4's second read, players have still found sufficient cause to sell in component weakness and the revision lower to Q3. Stops now touted downside through 1.4495/00, but unless we go much further through 1.4365/75 and 1.4350 and the 200-hour mov ave this market remains a wide range trade. Latest moves, to us, shows the continued fickleness of the broader market. Bids seen 1.4500/10.