Interest rate rise?

chucknorris

Ozymandias73 wrote: »

I do not trust buying in the stock market right now. I think there will probably be a crash sometime beginning this autumn, and I am putting my money where my mouth is. If there is a crash, I would then be far happier to invest.

But the point is you could invest say £500k right now (personally I would invest more in your position), and enjoy the much higher dividend income (also not taxed at 40%) compared to savings interest, and if the market does tank, invest a further £1m and average out.

The conversation that we are having right now, seems to me like I am talking to an uber bear, not someone who made their fortune from taking chances.

System

chucknorris wrote: »

But the point is you could invest say £500k right now (personally I would invest more in your position), and enjoy the much higher dividend income (also not taxed at 40%) compared to savings interest, and if the market does tank, invest a further £1m and average out.

The conversation that we are having right now, seems to me like I am talking to an uber bear, not someone who made their fortune from taking chances.

Yes, I am currently an uber-bear. My sentiment is not fixed, and changes as the outlook changes. I have been incredibly bullish in the past, when I felt it was right to be so, but that was then, this is now. I will be bullish again, no doubt, just when everyone else becomes uber-bearish.

chucknorris

Ozymandias73 wrote: »

Yes, I am currently an uber-bear. My sentiment is not fixed, and changes as the outlook changes. I have been incredibly bullish in the past, when I felt it was right to be so, but that was then, this is now. I will be bullish again, no doubt, just when everyone else becomes uber-bearish.

It is much more than 'sentiment' it is part of your personality, I can guarantee you there is not a time when everyone becomes 'uber-bearish. Especially when things look extremely bad, that is the time to buy (if you are young enough to have a sufficiently long time horizon).

System

chucknorris wrote: »

It is much more than 'sentiment' it is part of your personality, I can guarantee you there is not a time when everyone becomes 'uber-bearish. Especially when things look extremely bad, that is the time to buy (if you are young enough to have a sufficiently long time horizon).

"Everyone" is clearly a term I used with poetic licence. (Your personality seems quite pedantic, as well as being PollyAnna-esque - an unusual combination).

chucknorris

Ozymandias73 wrote: »

I do not trust buying in the stock market right now. I think there will probably be a crash sometime beginning this autumn, and I am putting my money where my mouth is. If there is a crash, I would then be far happier to invest.

But the point is that even if the market did crash, if you had invested much earlier (like you could have done) it would probably not crash down to that original investment level, and in the meantime your annual yield would have been much higher. Also of course the market may not crash!

Again, I feel like I am talking to someone like Crashy, rather than a fellow investor.

chucknorris

Ozymandias73 wrote: »

"Everyone" is clearly a term I used with poetic licence. (Your personality seems quite pedantic, as well as being PollyAnna-esque - an unusual combination).

Sorry I missed the bit in brackets from the Oxford English dictionary:

pronoun:
every person; everybody.
(Note: Ozymandias is allowed poetic license)

System

chucknorris wrote: »

But the point is that even if the market did crash, if you had invested much earlier (like you could have done) it would probably not crash down to that original investment level, and in the meantime your annual yield would have been much higher. Also of course the market may not crash!

Again, I feel like I am talking to someone like Crashy, rather than a fellow investor.

I am sorry to disappoint you, but not everyone is made in your image. You are unique, just like everyone else. And there all sorts of people out there, with different circumstances, personalities, motivations and fears.

chucknorris

Ozymandias73 wrote: »

I am 48, and yes I am currently renting. I made a lot of money buying and selling commodities futures when they were in a boom a few years back, but the main chunk of my capital is from the sale of a house in Chelsea, which I bought when I was 23 and did up. I intend to buy land and build a house in the country, but since I made my money by buying low and selling high, I just cannot bring myself to buy at a peak. I call them winnings because markets are a casino.

How did you manage to buy a multi-million pound house (at the time when you sold, but it still would have been expensive when you bought) at the age of only 23? Are you a graduate? So you would have only been working for about 2 years prior to that. I realise that it was during a crash and the house needed work, but that still seems a big ask to me.

System

chucknorris wrote: »

How did you manage to buy a multi-million pound house (at the time when you sold, but it still would have been expensive when you bought) at the age of only 23? Are you a graduate? So you would have only been working for about 2 years prior to that. I realise that it was during a crash and the house needed work, but that still seems a big ask to me.

I inherited a little money when my father died young, bought the house cheaply as a wreck when property was unpopular in the early 90s. I worked as a doctor for many years (now retired), so I managed to get a big mortgage as a newly qualified doctor (6x salary at a time when 3-4x salary was standard).

chucknorris

Ozymandias73 wrote: »

I am sorry to disappoint you, but not everyone is made in your image. You are unique, just like everyone else. And there all sorts of people out there, with different circumstances, personalities, motivations and fears.

Most equity investors think that way, my point is that is standard investment strategy, there isn't anything unique about it. If you don't believe me, go over to the savings and investment forum, and see for yourself.

Wow this test match just got interesting (India 73/4), it is almost 50/50 now, but Kholi is still there, so India will probably win, but at least we are still in it (for now).