Please critique my proposed investment portfolio

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  • C_Mababejive
    C_Mababejive Posts: 11,656 Forumite
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    Thank you,,sorry for digressing slightly but as a few people have raised the same point,i guess the message is that there is little to fear and when a dip comes,well in a diversified portfolio or hugely diverse single product eg lifestrat/consensus etc etc,,the price eventually recovers and the secret is to throw more coal on the fire o the dips and dont crystallise losses !



    I wonder if anyone has any data relating to previous significant dips with regard to recovery interval to roughly pre-dip levels? Are we usually talking a year/two years? more ..??
    Feudal Britain needs land reform. 70% of the land is "owned" by 1 % of the population and at least 50% is unregistered (inherited by landed gentry). Thats why your slave box costs so much..
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    C_Mababejive wrote: »
    Thank you,,sorry for digressing slightly but as a few people have raised the same point,i guess the message is that there is little to fear and when a dip comes,well in a diversified portfolio or hugely diverse single product eg lifestrat/consensus etc etc,,the price eventually recovers and the secret is to throw more coal on the fire o the dips and dont crystallise losses !

    Unless you held a high weighting in Japan when the Nikkei crashed. ;)

    Never take anything for granted. Run your winners and cut your losers is sage advice.
  • masonic
    masonic Posts: 23,381 Forumite
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    C_Mababejive wrote: »
    I wonder if anyone has any data relating to previous significant dips with regard to recovery interval to roughly pre-dip levels? Are we usually talking a year/two years? more ..??
    The worst example in the last century would be the 1973-4 crash, where the recovery took about a decade. The global financial crisis was relatively quick by comparison, the recovery taking a couple of years. The recovery from the dotcom crash was relatively quick also, but not quite as fast as the gfc.
  • A_T
    A_T Posts: 959 Forumite
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    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Talk of crashes is pure hysterics. Corrections can be far more subtle and longer drawn out.

    Government bonds are (other than short dated) likely to fall as interest rates rise. The chase for yield has blinkered many people as to the potential loss of capital.

    Equally the long equity bull market has seduced many into thinking that it will go on forever. Of course if one strongly believes there won't be a 20%+ correction any time soon there is little point holding government bonds.

    I prefer to take a more pragmatic approach and hold some gilt/treasury index funds (I don't bother with corporate bonds) because if that correction comes they will rise in value. At one point earlier this year, when we had the mini-correction, UK Gilts was best performing IA sector over a period of 3 months.
  • C_Mababejive
    C_Mababejive Posts: 11,656 Forumite
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    chartbuilder.aspx?codes=FACDT&color=f65d1a&hide=&span=M60&plotSingleAsPrice=true&totalReturn=false&yAxisLabel=_

    Sorry to keep going on about this but just as an example,the chart shows unit price of VLS80 against time (2013 to current). We can see that between 2013>2016 the price crept up at what would seem to be a gradual rate and then suddenly ramps up to todays current level. So what was around £14 not long ago is closer to £20.

    Im guessing this has a lot to do with fiscal policy which has driven markets to all time highs.

    So if i were to throw a load of money into the pot now, wouldnt i be simply buying into what could be a sizeable haircut when it comes? Surely that haircut isnt too far away now ?
    Feudal Britain needs land reform. 70% of the land is "owned" by 1 % of the population and at least 50% is unregistered (inherited by landed gentry). Thats why your slave box costs so much..
  • bostonerimus
    bostonerimus Posts: 5,617 Forumite
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    edited 19 June 2018 at 7:48PM
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    C_Mababejive wrote: »

    So if i were to throw a load of money into the pot now, wouldnt i be simply buying into what could be a sizeable haircut when it comes? Surely that haircut isnt too far away now ?

    I cannot answer those questions, but if you have a time horizon greater than five or ten years and you think that the world's economy will continue to grow and funds will keep giving dividends then you should get on that bandwagon.....now, tomorrow, or a fortnight from now. You might want to wait for a dip to invest to make you feel as if you got a bargain, but in the long run it will make very little difference. If you are looking for long term consistent gains putting money into the markets is better than leaving it under the mattress.

    You need an asset allocation that allows you to sleep at night whatever happens.......so some cash, some bonds, some equities, build equity in your home (no interest only mortgages) and don't take on unnecessary debt.
    “So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
  • Prism
    Prism Posts: 3,804 Forumite
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    C_Mababejive wrote: »
    chartbuilder.aspx?codes=FACDT&color=f65d1a&hide=&span=M60&plotSingleAsPrice=true&totalReturn=false&yAxisLabel=_

    Sorry to keep going on about this but just as an example,the chart shows unit price of VLS80 against time (2013 to current). We can see that between 2013>2016 the price crept up at what would seem to be a gradual rate and then suddenly ramps up to todays current level.

    A big chunk of that ramp is the brexit vote and the following drop in the pound. I would eventually expect that to reverse somewhat but it could take years if it happens at all
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    Prism wrote: »
    A big chunk of that ramp is the brexit vote and the following drop in the pound. I would eventually expect that to reverse somewhat but it could take years if it happens at all

    Only around 24% is UK listed. Then when you consider where the major Blue Chips earn their money. The % drops even lower.

    US 10 year Treasuries hitting nearly 3%. Is the first signs of the great unwinding. All the Central Banks need to restock their armouries. Interesting times lie ahead.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    bostonerimus wrote: »
    I cannot answer those questions, but if you have a time horizon greater than five or ten years and you think that the world's economy will continue to grow and funds will keep giving dividends then you should get on that bandwagon.....

    The world is more indebted now than at the time of the GFC. Can China's debt bubble keep on growing?
  • Prism
    Prism Posts: 3,804 Forumite
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    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Only around 24% is UK listed. Then when you consider where the major Blue Chips earn their money. The % drops even lower.

    Exactly. VLS 80 (well all global funds really) benefit hugely from the drop in the pound and suffer when it goes back up
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