My uncle has advised me to sell all my shares and reinvest in bonds/gilts

mark55man

A common commentary is that everything is expensive. I am not sure bonds are any better. What is sure is that if you are in cash you are losing out in real terms. Your strategy and timeframe seem solid. The only immediate action I would recommend is to move your hands away from the computer and do nothing knee jerk, and to be honest not to do much in the short term

Lois_and_CK

Thank you everyone. My instinct was to not take his advice and stick with what I've got, and your posts have all reassured me.

takesyourchances

Didn't the 2008 crash recover for those who stuck to their strategy and held through it. Don't think guessing is a great strategy and market timing

jimjames

mark88man wrote: »

A common commentary is that everything is expensive. I am not sure bonds are any better. What is sure is that if you are in cash you are losing out in real terms.

From my understanding one of the best value markets is the UK at the moment.

Lois_and_CK wrote: »

Not as far as I know - he's basing it on the LIBOR rating.

If he is advocating selling ALL holdings worldwide it would be interesting to know how LIBOR is related to other markets than London.

[Deleted User]

strangely enough I just sold all my share holdings, this morning. I am now going to position myself and do my charting research, to buy again, when appropriate. I like to secure profits in my sipp, buy low and sell high. You can get burnt by gilts and bonds, not just shares

AnotherJoe

Is your uncle fabulously wealthy on account of his ability to time the markets ?
If he is, go with his advice though if he really is able to so astutely time things, him selling up 100% should cause a market crash by itself.

BLB53

I usually nod and smile politely.

Yes, continue to do this whilst remaining fully invested for the duration. He may think of himself as the Sage but he cannot know when the next downturn will come along so he could be in bonds for some time...and when it does arrive, how will he know when to get back into equities. This sort of investing strategy is for fools and unlikely to capture long term returns imho.

AimHigh

And, arguably, just as important, if the markets do suddenly (and coincidentally) crash then don't beat yourself up about the fact you didn't sell out when he suggested. You should be in it for the long haul anyway so hang tight and let it climb.

ValiantSon

Is your uncle a regulated independent financial adviser?

Lois_and_CK wrote: »

He has predicted an imminent stock market crash.

Him and thousands of others. There were thousands last year saying the same, and thousands the year before that and the year before that. At some point some of them will be right, but due to dumb luck, rather than any great insight.

Lois_and_CK wrote: »

His prediction is based on the LIBOR rating. He says the last time it was at this level was just before the 2007/2008 crash.

Wow, that's terrible analysis. I really do hope that he doesn't make his living out of providing financial advice.

Lois_and_CK wrote: »

He is in the process of selling his shares and putting the money into bonds/gilts instead.

Has he looked at what is happening in the bonds market at the moment? :doh:

Lois_and_CK wrote: »

I feel my portfolio is pretty diverse with index trackers such as Vanguard Lifestrategy 80 and therefore see no reason to sell up. I won't be using the money for 15+ years

That's because there is no good reason. Even if this crash - which he has divined from reading sheep's entrails - does occur, the likelihood is that by the time you want to access your investments the markets will have recovered and gone on to make you even more.

Lois_and_CK wrote: »

(neither will my uncle with his own investments, but he still believes that now is the time to sell up and then reinvest at a later date).

His choice, but not, I would suggest, a particularly smart one.

Lois_and_CK wrote: »

Am I missing something in my inexperience? (He does tend to be the Font of All Knowledge.)

No, he thinks that he is the fount of all knowledge. It is easy to confuse the two.

Do nothing, other than buy more when the dip comes, so as to get investments at cheap prices and reap the gains when the markets recover.

Wassa123

They said this 2 years ago as well....

http://uk.businessinsider.com/finance-crisis-warnings-sign-flashing-again-libor-2016-8