Houses more affordable than 1970s

GreatApe

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Or we could just use any of the standard housing affordability indexes out there from the ONS, Halifax, Nationwide or the Land Registry.

But that would all be too simple....

.... and wouldn't show the outcome the OP is trying to convince us (himself) about.

I figure you've spent between 5 to 6 full work years on these forums going by your post count

How much closer are you to the hpc that will make your life a whole £1-2k a year better?

Could you have invested that time in getting better paid work or opening a business you know adding value and creating things rather than joining a men's club to moan about how unfair life is?

GreatApe

westernpromise wrote: »

This.

If I sold up and simultaneously repurchased a house of the same value today I'd lose 10% of the house value in transaction costs. To make money out of doing so I'd have to time both the exit and re-entry perfectly and even then the longer I wait the bigger the crash I need because I've been spending money on the rent in between times.

It can't be done - at least, not by people dumb enough to think they are smart enough to try.

It's like playing the lottery. If you do so in hopes of winning a fortune it means you're stupid. Yes, someone's got to win, but it won't be you.

Agree but not quite what I was saying

What I meant is so what if there is a hpc its not going to change a hpc cheerleaders life.
A typical buyer buying a £200k house at most they are better off by maybe £200 a month thanks to a 30% HPC if it happens

They don't seem to be aware of this its such a little thing to aim for just £200pm improvement in their lives
They should spend their energy on aiming to improve themselves and their earnings.
Not only is that much more likely than a hpc it also offers magnitudes more scope

AG47

chucknorris wrote: »

Who are the prema bulls? Can you actually name them, please do so. I dare say that you would include me, but I have been saying that property prices fluctuate in economic cycles for years. These people (prema bulls) only exist in your mind, property prices will do what they will do, regardless of what you or I think. As far as I can see, you are not really affected anyway, I just accept that they will do what they do, even though until last year we had £5m invested in property (although that's down to about £3.75m now, as we released £1.25m last year with two sales). It was never about capital growth (property prices and HPI which you bears seem obsessed with, especially Crashy), for me, it was all about yield and income.

What exactly have I got wrong about property, bearing in mind that we have made over £5m from it. It begs the question, what have you done right, and how much did you earn?

I don't know if you were or not, but some on here definitely used to be perma prop Bulls

Most have thrown in the towel now. :T

AG47

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Or we could just use any of the standard housing affordability indexes out there from the ONS, Halifax, Nationwide or the Land Registry.

But that would all be too simple....

.... and wouldn't show the outcome the OP is trying to convince us (himself) about.

Those indexes don't show if property is undervalued or overvalued compared to other assets, like commodities since the 1970s

Graham_Devon

GreatApe wrote: »

Agree but not quite what I was saying

What I meant is so what if there is a hpc its not going to change a hpc cheerleaders life.
A typical buyer buying a £200k house at most they are better off by maybe £200 a month thanks to a 30% HPC if it happens

They don't seem to be aware of this its such a little thing to aim for just £200pm improvement in their lives
They should spend their energy on aiming to improve themselves and their earnings.
Not only is that much more likely than a hpc it also offers magnitudes more scope

Not quite. And I'm just focusing on your financial point here rather than the rest of the cheerleader nonsense.

For simplicity, assuming a 100% mortgage, If a £200k house reduces by 30%, and becomes worth £140,000. On a typical 25 year mortgage at 5%, the difference in the amount spent on the mortgage is £105,000.

So £350 a month.

At 6, 7 or 8% mortgage rates, the difference is even higher.

Herzlos

GreatApe wrote: »

Get paid a couple thousand pound more in your job. Move company or ask for a promotion or skill up. Maybe 100-1000 hours of work 95% chance of success and it would take less than a year

If only it was that easy to just get a pay rise; we'd all do it.


It's still a better plan than waiting on an HPC though, since as mentioned you'd have to time it perfectly to even make your fees back.

GreatApe

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not quite. And I'm just focusing on your financial point here rather than the rest of the cheerleader nonsense.

For simplicity, assuming a 100% mortgage, If a £200k house reduces by 30%, and becomes worth £140,000. On a typical 25 year mortgage at 5%, the difference in the amount spent on the mortgage is £105,000.

So £350 a month.

At 6, 7 or 8% mortgage rates, the difference is even higher.

Even at £350 per month which is excessive guess as you can get 10 year fixes at much lower than 5% the fact remains that £350 a month is not a lot of money.

If someone told you they joined a self help group who's only purpose was to improve its members lives by £350 a month and the way they were going to do that was cross their fingers and pat each other on the back daily for many hours a week for being super savy and smart you'd think that person an idiot right? Well that person is exactly what most hpc cheerleaders are.

If money is super important to you then there are many many better ways to increase your earnings by £350 per month or much more but it will probably require giving up spending 20 hours a week patting each other on the backs for being super smart and seeing a bubble before it pops and using those 20 hours a week for something more productive.

GreatApe

Herzlos wrote: »

If only it was that easy to just get a pay rise; we'd all do it.

It's still a better plan than waiting on an HPC though, since as mentioned you'd have to time it perfectly to even make your fees back.

No most people don't do it they just go with the flow

If you want more money the easiest way is to just ask. Sure it won't work 90% of the time but the 10% of the time that it does work it only cost you a ten minute conversation. Offer the business something more than you currently give.

Or jump companies most bosses won't pay more for what they see as the same output but new companies will often pay more to take you away from your current place

Or skill up
Or start a business
Or just improve your life in other ways. Lose weight do sports make good quality friends and relationships. Anythings got to be better than joining a man cave of despair and hate praying hoping for a hpc that will somehow change your fortunes so much that you ho from sad to happy and successful.

triathlon

GreatApe wrote: »

Plan A

Get paid a couple thousand pound more in your job. Move company or ask for a promotion or skill up. Maybe 100-1000 hours of work 95% chance of success and it would take less than a year

Plan B

Spend 10+ years on a website 5 hours a day analysing the housing market and patting yourself on the back for spotting a bubble that is about to pop just before Christmas in the hope that a 30%+ crash will happen in a very shirt timeframe so as the overall goal is you spend a couple thousand less on housing costs

Outcome is the same your just a couple thousand a year better off.
Plan A is very likely to pay off rapidly and can progress further and further
Plan B is very very unlikely to pay off and if it doesn't pay off you just have to wait more and become more bitter but even if it does pay off wow you got a house 30% cheaper you're Two k a year better off come let's inform the media about your world beating success story....or not

Anyone waiting for a hpc is a fool
There simply isn't the payback to warrant it
A bit like the idiots with £1000 in the stock market or a particular share spending 20 hours a day reading into it and analysing it. Why its pointless the time value your spending on it is much more valuable than the performance of the investment

HPC cheerleaders sometimes I want to give them a slap and say grow up other times I feel sorry for them.

Was that a serious post?

AG47

Comparing values of many things since the 1970s to get an idea of how much our fiat currency the pound sterling is getting devalued every year is very interesting.

Property has risen far far more than other assets and commodities since the 1970s, it everything goes from over valued to undervalued and back again.

It;s obvious to see property is now on the way from overvalued to undervalued.

But all the time the pound sterling is getting devalued against real things.