New Car Sales Slump Panic - Really?

motorguy

Bachelorplace wrote: »

According to This is Money car sales have dropped in March with a 16% decrease and a 37% decrease in purchase of deisel cars.

But is it clear as to why?

1. Are buyers avoiding desiel due to emissions or pollution?

Surely not, the new EU6 engines are cleaner than many petrols.

2. Is Brexit a concern, leading to uncertainty?

3. Are buyers clued up enough to know about the new VED rules that has hiked the price of taxing the cars?

I think few people know about these new rules - and are just thinking on headlines, rather than fact.

4. What percentage of the decline is for cars over £40,000 as those are the worst taxed - even more so cars like Range Rovers.

I would be interested to hear your theories on why this might be, because as yet there are no clear answers.

It could be as simple as people due to change simply are not, because of the new tax rules. It might be that people are fearful of buying diesels thinking they will be worthless ( again just headlines ).

The general consensus in any legitimate motor trade analysis is as follows :-

• There is confusion and concern among buyers about the future taxation of diesel cars because the government has no clear policy
• Some large cities have expressed an interest in taxing diesels specifically in a congestion charge
• Newspapers witch hunting diesel cars has made people wary
• The high profile dieselgate scandals have had an effect
• The upcoming Brexit is a (small) factor

I dont think people particularly give a monkies about the environment so i dont think that has suddenly become a big factor.

motorguy

daveyjp wrote: »

Buyers were mugged into buying diesels due to the tax system. All those £0-20 a year cars were too tempting. The mpg figures were however far from honest to get the cheap tax, but mpg wasn't close to what was advertised.

People are also wising up about DPFs EGRs wtc and the costs associated with them.

The graded tax system however also saw great advances in petrol efficiency.

I had a Focus mk1 115 bhp. It did mid 20s around town and 40 was just about possible if I took it steady. Mid 30s was typical.

We now have a 1.5 petrol engine car with 110 bhp.

It does mid 40s mpg around town, 50 at motorway speeds and I expect it to get 60+ on a steady run.

This is as good as the 110 bhp modern diesel I drove during February and March, so it makes no financial sense to buy one. Having had petrols for the last 8 years I also forgot how frustrating manual diesels were to drive.

Maybe - but why suddenly in this past year? All of those things have been happening for the last 5-10 years and we've seen new car & diesel car sales rise consistently during that time. Suddenly, this past year it has dropped?

That suggests other factors.

motorguy

Herzlos wrote: »

I can't remember the company off the top of my head, but there was an in depth analysis for the motoring industry on the impact of Brexit, which concluded that car prices would go up across the board (something like 5-10% for UK build, 10-15% for EU built, and 5% for Asian built).
I assume that includes many factors, such as a weaker GBP or any increase in tariffs/customs/supply line costs could drive the price up further.

I'd certainly bet that they are more likely to go up than down with Brexit; unless sales figures drop even further and dealers need to provide better offers to shift them.

I think you're right - prices will initially go up after Brexit

CardinalWolsey

Car_54 wrote: »

Cars in UK were historically much more expensive than elsewhere in Europe until about 20 years ago, when the EU outlawed discriminatory pricing. Prices came down overnight.

If Brexit means we're no longer subject to those EU laws, then there will be nothing to stop the manufacturers ripping us off again.

There is - and its called the internet. This is the big difference between now and 20 years ago. Manufacturers and dealers will have to maintain pricing as much as possible otherwise you will see people using brokers more and more - and access to brokers and finding pricing on cars is so much easier today because you simply type the details of the car you're looking for in to a website and browse all the offers. The internet is also why it can be very hard to get a discount off a used car, as they have to be priced keenly to get people to even consider looking when browsing online.

System

Part of it I reckon is that the number of people who can qualify for a PCP deal and who aren't already tied into one has dropped so is impacting new car sales especially given that last year 75% of all new cars were sold on PCP.

Expect the numbers to rise again in a year or two time when a large number of those PCP deals end.

Svein_Forkbeard

Cost of a new Fiesta 2013 £9,795, similar in 2018 is £13,595.

Almost a 40% price hike in 5 years.

Manufacturers taking the pith?

RichardD1970

Svein_Forkbeard wrote: »

Cost of a new Fiesta 2013 £9,795, similar in 2018 is £13,595.

Almost a 40% price hike in 5 years.

Manufacturers taking the pith?

Spec/Tech levels. Also not comparing like for like. The 2018 Fiesta is more Focus sized now.

Herzlos

motorguy wrote: »

I think you're right - prices will initially go up after Brexit

When do you reckon the sweet spot will be? Just after we've left, confidence is low, and there will be deals on stuff, before the excess stock is cleared and the prices go up? Or some time before we leave?

I'm hoping to be in a position to take advantage and pick up a nice sexy Zafira:(

motorguy

Tarambor wrote: »

Part of it I reckon is that the number of people who can qualify for a PCP deal and who aren't already tied into one has dropped so is impacting new car sales especially given that last year 75% of all new cars were sold on PCP.

Expect the numbers to rise again in a year or two time when a large number of those PCP deals end.

Thats the reason why the sales were levelling off - pretty much everyone who could be converted to a new car PCP deal had been - but its not the reason why the sales are dropping off.

motorguy

Herzlos wrote: »

When do you reckon the sweet spot will be? Just after we've left, confidence is low, and there will be deals on stuff, before the excess stock is cleared and the prices go up? Or some time before we leave?

I'm hoping to be in a position to take advantage and pick up a nice sexy Zafira:(

Oh.... thats the million dollar question isnt it?

Gut feeling... i'd be buying this year personally. A petrol model, check drivethedeal, broadspeed, etc for the best price and see if your dealer can price match.