Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses

Glen_Clark

IanManc wrote: »

Linking the collapse of RBS and its business practises with Hillsborough - where 96 people were unlawfully killed - seems very odd at least, and at worst is offensive.

People have been driven to suicide by the Royal Bank
According to Branson's biography, Virgin nearly went bust when Nat West suddenly decided to call in its debts. He spent a weekend frantically borrowing money from other sources, if he hadn't suucceeded Nat West would have sunk Virgin like thousands of others.

ProDave

Reading this thread with interest.

This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years



Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.

My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.

ColdIron

ProDave wrote: »

Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

I suppose 20 years worth of dividends might have increased your total returns a smidgen?

jamei305

ProDave wrote: »

Reading this thread with interest.

This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years



Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.

My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.

Your graph fails to take into account reinvested dividends.

An FTSE 100 Acc fund would look like this in comparison:

dunstonh

20 years is probably not a good guide either as you are starting with a crash near the start (and ignoring the 10 years of growth that took place before that). You are then including a major depression in the middle and ending on a correction.

Any snapshot in time can be manipulated to say different things. Move that snapshot a few years earlier and you get a totally different picture.

ProDave

^^ which highlights how much better you would have done by selling in April 2000, buying back in in April 2003, then selling in April 2008 and buying back in in April 2009

It also highlights with a short term timescale (5 years) if you had bought in April 1998 and just held, then selling in April 2003 you would have lost at least 20% so over that particular 5 years, cash would have been better.

All I am saying is NOW does not look to be optimal timing to buy in. Time will tell who is right.For me, we appear to be at or close to the top. I just want the crash to happen sooner, so there is still time to buy in and ride the recovery in my short timescale.

ChesterDog

ProDave wrote: »

Reading this thread with interest.

This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years



Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.

My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.

The domination of the FTSE 100 in 'lay' UK investment thinking, and the overlooking of the huge effect of compounding dividends when 'examining' its performance has a lot to answer for, in my view.

It is a discouragement to potential investors and sits upon the first page of the first chapter of their discovery process.

It's like assessing the usefulness of savings accounts by picking a poorly performing one and then disregarding any interest payments it generates anyway.

JohnRo

IanManc wrote: »

RT's job, and the reason that the Russian government fund it so heavily, is to undermine the West.

I'm surprised that you don't understand that.

The scandal at RBS has been rumbling on in the media for years - it hasn't just begun to be reported "since early this year". For example the unit within RBS which was supposed to be helping businesses that were in temporary financial trouble but which forced companies which were otherwise sound but had cashflow problems into bankruptcy because it made more money for RBS was highlighted by financial journalists and by the BBC on Moneybox on Radio 4 while it was happening.

RT is adding nothing to the investigation of this story, just using it as propaganda. Anyone who is oblivious to that clearly doesn't understand very much at all.

Honestly, the same applies to views at ten.. there's no lack of understanding on my part. I'm not defending RT, I know what it's doing, that doesn't make it worthless and there's value in having slanted views and opinions challenged.

Better than just filtering out everything that doesn't agree with a desired world view, if interested in truth and justice.

Anyway this particular story is in the process of unfolding, with or without RT, so that's just a distraction.

thenewcomer

Matthew2018 wrote: »

Yes I was concerned.

I have, in the last few days, moved out of investments completely and moved into cash. When I have time to catch my breath I will also move some cash into precious metals.

I may be wrong and the coming crash will not be for a few years, if ever. After all, unlike markets before, this already long, bull run could just keep on going. If I am wrong I will have missed out on any future increases in the market.

However, if I am right then my cash giving me only a little more than 1% interest easily beats a downturn of 5% in the markets.

If you think that there will be a serious downturn in the markets, why would you just stand there and watch your personal investments go the same way.

what precious metals and in what form? paper or physical?

slapmatt

ANGLICANPAT wrote: »

This has been doing the rounds on FB, and worries me some - I was already aware about the problems with RBS but hadnt realized the extent of the problem till I saw this. Looks quite bad , and I wondered if it would affect investments much - but perhaps storm in a T cup?Surprised Teresa May hasnt answered the letter sent to her.

https://www.rt.com/shows/renegade-inc/422961-scotland-bank-economic-taxpayer/

I don't think Neil Mitchell is a particularly reliable source of unbiased information about RBS.

https://www.ft.com/content/ecc6d949-1832-389f-b04d-00333bdb890f