FTSE100 Futures indicating an open below 7000...

inflationbuster

economic wrote: »

A classic example of a post showing how a money saving website has turned into a quasi trading site.

Love trading!

username12345678

bowlhead99 wrote: »

Well, the research can say that for the given set of historic data it tested, it would have been better to have rebalanced monthly or semiannually or biennially or on the second Thursday of every month that had an "r" in its name. It can't reliably indicate what will be best to do next in the next set of market conditions.

The research on frequency also doesn't reliably tell you whether "six months" or "the date at which a portfolio constituent has charged its portfolio share by 20%" will be the best rule of thumb.

What you can say is that rebalancing allows you to add lower-performing uncorrelated assets info a portfolio without impairing performance by the amount you might expect to lose as a consequence of diverting some of the portfolio into that lower long term performer.

So really it's more about spreading risk without losing performance, rather than adding outright gains to performance, if that makes sense...

As such, it's about what you hold at all times rather than how much you make or lose before making a change. Which divorces the concept from being one where you are waiting for an asset class measuring stick (e.g. absolute value of FTSE 100 or FTSE100 TR) to gain or lose an absolute x% or £y before taking planned action.

If you automate the process to take the actions out of your hands and into a word document, so you are definitively going to take X action when the price drops y% from its peak, you are indulging in market timing or momentum /contrarian investing; playing with stop losses or stop purchases etc; and _not_ doing that as a rebalance process. Your word doc says sell bonds/abs return funds to buy more shares when shares are 20% below peak. As bonds/abs funds might also be 20% down, but the decision to sell them to buy shares is out of your hands, you can't really say the substance is rebalancing. Rather, it's a type of trading strategy as economic opined in post #2
In some areas yes. Not trying to be difficult but we do differ on some bits.

We are agreeing,,,I just didn't expect this post to be dissected in the way it has otherwise i'd have been MUCH more careful in the phrasing.

So....

Yes, I have a guidance note for myself as a warning not to go 'off-piste' if the market really does take a 00-03, 08-09 type fall. When I say off-piste my exact meaning is that I am going to follow the rebalancing plan even if it feels uncomfortable to adding to my equities to bring them back to the ratios I initially decided on when I created my asset allocation.

No, I am not driven by absolute falls in any particular given market. They will give me a prompt but if all assets are falling then of course there will be little point in rebalancing as the portfolio wouldn't have become unbalanced in the first place.

Yes, my rebalancing is prompted by the relative movement of the asset allocation I originally decided on. As it stands my original 47.5% equity allocation is now 45.84% according to Trustnet. The equity element is globally diverse so the fact the FTSE100 has fallen 20% won't be in, and of itself, a trigger to purchase equities.

Yes, if that percentage equity allocation continues to drop I will start to move funds away from cash/bonds/AR in to equities.

Yes, I regret starting a thread late at night without giving full consideration to the audience. :rotfl:

bowlhead99

username12345678 wrote: »

Yes, I regret starting a thread late at night without giving full consideration to the audience. :rotfl:

Yeah that's the problem with starting forum threads late at night.

Once normal people have long gone to bed, the only people reading are the ones who really really care about what you have to say, or really really don't care and just want to troll or criticize as they're not tired enough to go to bed yet. I may have been in both camps at some times in the past. And tend to travel a lot so not always in the usual UK timezone...

ffacoffipawb

bowlhead99 wrote: »

Yeah that's the problem with starting forum threads late at night.

Once normal people have long gone to bed, the only people reading are the ones who really really care about what you have to say, or really really don't care and just want to troll or criticize as they're not tired enough to go to bed yet. I may have been in both camps at some times in the past. And tend to travel a lot so not always in the usual UK timezone...

The Dow is cratering again, < 6800 for the FTSE-100 tomorrow perhaps?

Why we have to follow a country that elects a moron for a president I do not know.

23,960.17 - 722.14 (-2.93%) lovely.

sixpence.

Just topped up VLS 60 with £500 in the hope that it does down tomorrow bc it's so US and UK dominated.

bowlhead99

ffacoffipawb wrote: »

The Dow is cratering again, < 6800 for the FTSE-100 tomorrow perhaps?

nah, I reckon 6888 to open.

Fwiw I hold Boost FTSE100 3x short daily ETP, and DB x-trackers S&P 500 2x Inverse Daily UCITS ETF

23,960.17 - 722.14 (-2.93%) lovely.

If you're on the right side of the trade...

ffacoffipawb

bowlhead99 wrote: »

nah, I reckon 6888 to open.

Fwiw I hold Boost FTSE100 3x short daily ETP, and DB x-trackers S&P 500 2x Inverse Daily UCITS ETF


If you're on the right side of the trade...

Takes guts to hold stuff like that. Riskiest I ever held was LOIL leveraged oil.

dividendhero

ffacoffipawb wrote: »

Why we have to follow a country that elects a moron for a president I do not know.

Donald "Man of the people" Trump is surrounded by many Wall street insiders, including hedge fund managers - you can bet your bottom dollar some will be making a fortune from this:money:

ffacoffipawb

dividendhero wrote: »

Donald "Man of the people" Trump is surrounded by many Wall street insiders, including hedge fund managers - you can bet your bottom dollar some will be making a fortune from this:money:

Certainly smells of corruption.

coastline

Media have a reason for every little move in the markets even on a daily basis but who is to say this is to do with trade wars ?
We've been in a correction for weeks and it could very well go on months. Have a look at some examples below..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DY5SoGcVoAEJoU1.jpg

https://fat-pitch.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/after-10-drop-will-equities-v-bounce-or.html

Even after todays fall the Dow is still 700 points above the February low and the start of the Santa rally last December. Who knows where it will end ?
This week we had the Fed rate rise and they indicated there could be 2 more and another 3 next year. They also said some stock sectors were ahead of themselves. Things aren't that bad when unemployment is low and they are predicting growth of 3% this year.
Some links below about the markets and rate rises..

http://uk.businessinsider.com/rate-hikes-effect-stock-market-2017-3

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/articles/investmentarticles/107541/time-see-whether-three-steps-and-stumble-rule-will-apply-or-not