Best time of year to switch energy?

telemarks

Looking at the Ofgen wholesale prices of energy over the past years, I can't help by notice that "usually" the price drops in summer.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators
Not surprising, but presumably this means the best deals of the year are "usually" offered in summer. So is it worth delaying switching until then?

Also following up on my post on OVO credit balance interest, I'd noticed that if your contact starts in early summer, and you pay by direct debit, then you will maintain a credit balance, that with some suppliers gives good interest. Contracts starting in early winter will have negative balances, and hence no potential for interest.

So is this another reason to start contacts in summer? Or have i missed something important here?

System

With respect, the market has changed. With an energy cap coming in later this year, and recent wholesale price increases, I doubt that tariffs will fall. If anything fixed tariffs will rise to reduce the SVT/fixed tariff differential - but that's just my opinion.

Switching now we will allow you to build up a credit balance but suppliers are not Banks so they limit the amount of credit allowed. To put this into perspective, if you had a £200 credit balance in November at 3% interest, then this would realise you 200* 3%/12 or 50p. It is not worth choosing a tariff on the basis that it pays interest or cashback: these factors come into play once you know which suppliers/tariffs are the cheapest for your projected consumption/postcode.

matelodave

Not sure you can rely on a better deal in spring or summer but it's the best time to start a contract if you want to stay in credit for as long as possible. The end of March to mid April is probably optimum.

If you work out your monthy consumption profile then you should be able to predict when you are in credit, when you are in arrears and when you break even.

telemarks

matelodave wrote: »

Not sure you can rely on a better deal in spring or summer .

I totaly agree you can't rely on summer been cheapest. But I was surprised looking back on the trend on the wholesale price index:

• In 2017 cheapest Elec was in June Gas in June
• In 2016 cheapest Elec was in Feb Gas in Aug
• In 2015 cheapest Elec was in Dec Gas in Dec
• In 2014 cheapest Elec was in July Gas in July
• In 2013 cheapest Elec was in June Gas in June
• In 2012 cheapest Elec was in Aug Gas in Aug

So "summer" cheapest has been a trend over past years (apart from the Arab cartell constant price falls in 2015/early16)

Hengus wrote: »

With respect, the market has changed. With an energy cap coming in later this year, and recent wholesale price increases, I doubt that tariffs will fall. If anything fixed tariffs will rise to reduce the SVT/fixed tariff differential - but that's just my opinion.

Agree you do have a strong point here, the market is about to have one of its bigger shake-ups that might well drive the cheaper deals up in price. Will that increase be bigger than the usal summer drift down in price? Who knows. If anyone has a fully functioning crystal ball it would certainly be useful.