Do you want house price to rise or fall?

GreatApe

buglawton wrote: »

British government policy has been to encourage the UK to become an international property bazaar. Putting average Britons in competition with the the rich from around the world for land and building resources. Actually, not just the worlds rich, but also the worlds middle classes who pay much less tax in countries that don't have a social net. They can save more than us but want a nice rule-of-law home for their assets.

So with all this new money flowing in, is it any surprise that the original inhabitants of this new bazaar-land don't have the money to compete?

Result: Extreme land and property price inflation in hotspots around the UK. I've heard that extreme inflation never ends well.

Nice theory but it doesn't hold up to reality. In most parts of the UK a home can be had for near build cost there is no premium let alone some silly mega rich competition premium

You can buy a terrace in Birmingham for £120k it would cost you more than £120k to build that home even if you had a free plot of land. 120 years ago that home cost 1 new build now it costs less than 1 new build. No real term house price inflation compared to 120 years ago but you won't get that information from house price crash cheerleaders. No they would rather proclaim with no evidence or experience that a house can be built for £50k so even Birmingham is overvalued. Hell just a decent outside door costs nearly £1000 and they think they can build a whole house for £50k.

Koldweather1

GreatApe wrote: »

. Doncaster is cheaper than Dusseldorf. Manchester is cheaper than Munich. Birmingham is cheaper than Berlin.

There isn't really a housing problem there is a small number of concentrated house price crash cheerleaders

I agree with your post, but for the sake of fairness, those places just aren't comparable

Doncaster is 6 times smaller than Dusseldord, so of course lower demand will equal lower prices.

Manchester is 3 times smaller than Munich, so once again is going to gave lower demand, thus lower prices (though Munich is certainly expensive regardless!)

Ofcourse Birmingham is going to be cheaper than the capital of Germany...not even going to worry about populations with that one!

Other than that, totally agree, especially that last sentence, I don't think house prices are outrageous (maybe London and parts of Surrey, maybe) though they are probably at the upper end of what they can achieve hence why prices are flatlining and now roughly following wage inflation (increasing 2-3% per annum) outside of further N/W which I think is beneffiting from people 'downsizing' out of the SE quarter.

buglawton

GreatApe wrote: »

Nice theory but it doesn't hold up to reality. In most parts of the UK a home can be had for near build cost there is no premium let alone some silly mega rich competition premium

You can buy a terrace in Birmingham for £120k it would cost you more than £120k to build that home even if you had a free plot of land. 120 years ago that home cost 1 new build now it costs less than 1 new build. No real therm house price inflation compared to 120 years ago but you won't get that information from house price crash cheerleaders. No they would rather proclaim with no evidence or experience that a house can be built for £50k so even Birmingham is overvalued. Hell just a decent outside door costs nearly £1000 and they think they can build a whole house for £50k.

You are at risk of sounding incoherent. You can buy a non new build terrace in Brum for £120k... But on examining real examples, probably wouldn't. Back in the real world what you might aspire to is something like this Birmingham end-of-terrace at £275k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-53651130.html - so that's a new build with land and a developers profit margin. What point are you trying to make? No real house price inflation?

GreatApe

buglawton wrote: »

What point are you trying to make? No real house price inflation?

Exactly that for much of the country there has been no real term hpi

In many parts of the country can buy a 100 year old terrace for below build cost that means it costs less today in real terms than it cost a hundred years ago.

Arklight

I’m a homeowner with a mortgage and I want house prices to fall.

The British obsession with seeing property as some kind of one way casino come ATM is an absolute cancer in this country.

GreatApe

Arklight wrote: »

I’m a homeowner with a mortgage and I want house prices to fall.

The British obsession with seeing property as some kind of one way casino come ATM is an absolute cancer in this country.

Yeh only that is a load of tosh

The British are not obsessed with property or its price
The average home only transacts once every 23 years
Only a small fringe are interested, landlords and hpc cheerleaders.

Everyone else just gets on with it and doesn't give it a second thought outside of buying/selling the 1-2 times they do that in their life

Sir_Robin

A rise would benefit me but would make the crisis worse. I'll settle for all-round wage growth instead.

buglawton

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/12/london-house-prices-falling-fastest-rate-nine-years-halifax
London falling steadily since mid 2017.
South East practically flat over last 3 months

westernpromise

buglawton wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/12/london-house-prices-falling-fastest-rate-nine-years-halifax
London falling steadily since mid 2017.
South East practically flat over last 3 months

Buying in a new development at the moment is a very dicey proposition.

It looks highly likely that a lot of these developers will go bust - or at least individual developments will - with maybe 10% occupancy or some such figure. What then happens is the receiver goes to the local council and, to generate some income for the bust company, offers to put LA tenants into the luxury block.

So you pay £2 million for your 3-bed flat and then nobody else moves in until suddenly you've got hundreds of scutters for neighbours paying nothing.

There were couple of developments like that in W9 30 years ago that took 20 years to recover and meanwhile if you'd bought you couldn't sell.

buglawton

Anyone buying a £800k London 1 bed flat has already reckoned with a 1% ROI. What's baffling me is who'd want to buy them (or who was buying them) in the first place.