House Price Crash Discussion Thread

hearts

Walter_J wrote: »

Of course its my opinion!

Isn't that what internet discussion forums are for - to put forward one's opinions?

I'll put my mortgage on it that I'm right though!

Ooops, I forgot...

... I haven't got a mortgage!

I will put my Mortgage on the exact opposite. THERE WILL BE NO CRASH! I will put money on with anyone who cares to wager. ;-)

Former_MSE_Forum_Manager

We've received reports from ALL SIDES here about the other claiming that they are disrupting this thread. Please be aware that this is a discussion forum and that no one gets to "allow" what is and isnt an acceptable point of view. If you don't agree, you may, of course respond but often it is easier to ignore. These types of threads are always going to throw up this type of debate and are often quite hard for us to moderate - here we have many points of view, and that isn't an abuse of the forum.

Can we all please take a breath and try and converse in a civil manner. It's the season of goodwill folks!

beingjdc

Generali wrote: »

Of course property has one thing going for it - you can invest 'sweat equity'. That is to say that you can put in a new bathroom or something to increase the value of it which you can't do with shares. The value of a share isn't going to increase if you paint the certificate a nice apple white colour!

What property really has going for it is that, for some reason, the banks are happy to let people with no clue about investing, or track record, borrow money to gamble on it.

Look at your typical new buy-to-let today. If I went to my bank manager and said I wanted to borrow £120k to buy myself £150k worth of shares in a loss-making company, that I would then subsidise myself by £150 a month, and which would probably be worth less next year, but I thought it would work out OK as I was 'in it for the long term', they'd laugh me out of the building.

But the moment it's made of bricks...

beingjdc

hearts wrote: »

I will put my Mortgage on the exact opposite. THERE WILL BE NO CRASH! I will put money on with anyone who cares to wager. ;-)

Go to spreadfair.com - a fall of 10% in 2008 is already factored in to their prices, so if prices fall by less than 10%, you make money. If they go up even 0.1%, you make £££.

After you.

hearts

beingjdc wrote: »

Go to spreadfair.com - a fall of 10% in 2008 is already factored in to their prices, so if prices fall by less than 10%, you make money. If they go up even 0.1%, you make £££.

After you.

Thanks for that. ;-) Ive been hoping for a market on Betfair. Never heard of Spreadfair but I'll check it out now.

Generali

beingjdc wrote: »

What property really has going for it is that, for some reason, the banks are happy to let people with no clue about investing, or track record, borrow money to gamble on it.

Look at your typical new buy-to-let today. If I went to my bank manager and said I wanted to borrow £120k to buy myself £150k worth of shares in a loss-making company, that I would then subsidise myself by £150 a month, and which would probably be worth less next year, but I thought it would work out OK as I was 'in it for the long term', they'd laugh me out of the building.

But the moment it's made of bricks...

You would be allowed to put a spread bet on though which allows you access to leverage.

Snow_Dog

So, bets on, are we having a last gasp dying breath from the UK average Joe, splurging out on the post chrimbo sales? Only to find he cant make Februarys mortgage payment when the January CC bill comes in?

Are we going to get the seasonal spring bounce? Or is it that 2007 was the last one of those for a while?

Perhaps the BOE will raise a new year cheer by dropping the rate by 0.5% not quite realising that the banks are no longer taking much notice of them. Still, gives something for the hacks to sensationalise.

Cynical........nah, just been there before.

beingjdc

If it's money where my mouth is time, I'd say the Bank of England will (wrongly) cut rates.

However inflation is above target, the pound's tanking, and oil's back through the roof, so they'll have to be brave...

Not that lower rates have saved the US housing market (and prices there are coming down from a much lower peak than ours).

Snow_Dog

It would be funny if it wasnt peoples livelyhoods and houses staked.

You can just imagine GB and Darling desperate for ideas like raising the stamp thresholds but fearing what the resultant reduction in HMCE takings would do to their borrowing figures. So be prepared for an increase in the number of empty rhetoric about how they are promoting, "share", "key-worker", "joint ownership" schemes in the spring time.

Perhaps we shall see another extension of the GB defined fiscal cycle, to maybe 2019 :cool:

Whichever way there is not going to be stagnation, name me two consecutive trading days on the ftse that have ended up not moving by a single point (and no I dont mean the close value).

free4440273

BofE keeps on spewing out 'managed' CPI and inflation figures anyhow; and as long as they continue doing this, they will just keep on cutting rates (aggressively) in 2008. It's poor old Savers who I worry about ....