House Price Crash Discussion Thread

pickledpink

Walter_J wrote: »

Because we are right at the top of the cycle when prices are at their highest.

In 1996 it was very easy for FTBers to get on the ladder bacause prices were low. Your logic wouldn't have made much sense if you had spouted it then. At that time many people were still in negative equity in properties they had bought in the late 1980's

The housing market like any other is cyclical and making it work for you is all about timing. Your timing is obviously good. At least have the good grace to admit that this has more to do with luck than judgement.





My house is my home. It's where my family and myself live, and we're happy with it. We're also lucky enough to have been able to pay the mortgage off - so it is very cheap to live in. I do not look on it as an 'investment'.

Because we'll probably never sell it.

No Walter - I doubt very much that you will sell it - because being the Bankrupt that you are that house is not actually yours. You obviously haven't done your homework, Walter - the new law states that ALL Bankrupts must sell their home to pay off their debts. No doubt you'll be hearing from them in due course; let's hope YOUR property hasn't tumbled too much - you might end up with a fiver once they've sold it and taken what you owe to your
creditors.

Fancy you, eh, giving advice and financial forecasts when you can't even write a cheque out!:rotfl:

I thought you sounded bitter and disgruntled - I can see why now!

Walter_J

pickledpink wrote: »

The problem with your argument is that you categorically state what's going to happen in the property market! Have you told Gordon Brown by any chance?>

No, I am merely stating what I am 100% sure is going to happen. It is called a 'prediction'.

>And I am sure that Gordon Brown knows only too well the size of the crash that is about to befall home-owners - as a direct result of the artificial housing bubble engineered by his own fair hands for his selfish political purposes.

>

pickledpink wrote: »

I bet YOUR house is twice what it was just FIVE years ago; and even if there is a slump - property will never drop back to those prices.

The problem with your argument is that you categorically state what's going to happen in the property market!

>Yes, my house is worth twice what it was five years ago. So is everyone elses. This is an anomoly though. On average over the last 50 years house prices have doubled every ten years. So you're right - house prices always go up.
>Except...... for house prices to double every ten years means that they go up on average by 7% per year.

>Over the last 50 years general inflation has averaged about 7% per year.So over the last 50 years house prices have stayed about the same in real terms. This what I was talking about in my first post a few hours ago.Read it properly this time.

>If you think about it for more than three seconds, house prices must stay about when adjusted for inflation - otherwise no-one could afford to buy them!
>

pickledpink wrote: »

The UK has severe housing shortage, and as long as demand outstrips supply property will always be in demand - and that keeps prices stable (even accounting for the odd blip every decade or so).

>This is one of the great myths. There is no great shortage of homes in this country - it is just that over the last few years demand has exceeded the available supply due to the availability of cheap credit and the expectation that capital gains could be made easily. Because prices go up it doesn't mean that there is a lack of supply - it simply means that the ratio of supply:demand is out of kilter. Reduce demand and the supply will be adequate. Demand is now reducing quickly as the tap of credit is turned off and the expectation of capital gains evaporates.Once the expectation of capital losses pervades the public conscience then supply will exceed demand and prices will plummet.
>

pickledpink wrote: »

going by all the news reports etc it's doubtful they'll drop much further given the proposed TWO interest rate cuts for the new year!

>A couple of quarter point cuts will make absolutely no difference. The banks are already working on higher rates than the BoE rate - they will keep any reduction to increase their margins

>Panic is about to set in.

Walter_J

pickledpink wrote: »

No Walter - I doubt very much that you will sell it - because being the Bankrupt that you are that house is not actually yours. You obviously haven't done your homework, Walter - the new law states that ALL Bankrupts must sell their home to pay off their debts. No doubt you'll be hearing from them in due course; let's hope YOUR property hasn't tumbled too much - you might end up with a fiver once they've sold it and taken what you owe to your
creditors.

Fancy you, eh, giving advice and financial forecasts when you can't even write a cheque out!:rotfl:

I thought you sounded bitter and disgruntled - I can see why now!

Yes, it's a good job the house was in my wife's name when I went bankrupt due to business debts.
I'm now discharged and back in business earning good money. I also have a loving wife and family, a nice home, and no mortgage!

You however, are as thick as pigshit!

pickledpink

It's quite transparent how all the 'have-nots' are the ones who are predicting a massive crash!:rotfl: Sour and grape spring to mind!:D

If they weren't so sad they'd be funny, but unfortunately, they tend to do a lot of harm. By doom-mongering they're putting FTB's off entering the market. It could be that property prices may well rise a little at the end of next year; which will put FTB's even further back from the ladder. But maybe that's what they secretly want: because they themselves have missed the boat.

I know of one man who sold his flat back in 2002 (for a modest equity release) and banked it whilst waiting for the predicted massive crash: it never happened, and now he is living in rented accommodation.

I can see that happening again if people take note of these doom-mongers who have giant chips on their shoulders.

They pray for a property crash - only because they're desperate to get on it themselves! Wonder why that would be, eh?;)

And I say it once again: PROPERTY ALWAYS RISES IN THE LONG RUN!!

dolce_vita

Pickledthinking - You haven't given any reasons why continual HPI is a good thing.

Please elaborate.

pickledpink

Walter_J wrote: »

Yes, it's a good job the house was in my wife's name when I went bankrupt due to business debts.
I'm now discharged and back in business earning good money. I also have a loving wife and family, a nice home, and no mortgage!

You however, are as thick as pigshit!

Well at least I'm not a bankrupt like you are!! You must be HOPELESS with money!

And for your information - putting your house (if indeed you have one) in your wife's name will not make a jot of difference: you will still have to sell it to pay your creditors.

I don't know how you have the nerve to come on here spouting your arrogant thoughts, useless predictions, and accusing me of being thick as pigshit when it's YOU that was so THICK you ended up BANKRUPT! Or maybe you just don't give a toss about your creditors, and being as pig ignorant as you are, you decided to stick two fingers up to them.

And now they've come back to bite you on the !!!!:rotfl:

I've read your other post's (where other people have complained about your harsh comments) and you come across as a very bitter and twisted man. Just because you're a failure shouldn't make you jealous of people who have been successful - but clearly you suffer from acute schandenfreude.

pickledpink

dolce_vita wrote: »

Pickledthinking - You haven't given any reasons why continual HPI is a good thing.

Please elaborate.

I'm not going to elaborate for your benefit! You're in that little club run my Turnbull, Walter & co...............a bunch of have-nots!

I never actually said HPI was a good thing (but we all know it it is don't we:p ) - I just said HOUSE PRICES INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM! D'oh?

Anyway, rather than worrying yourselves about something you'll never have, why don't you go and get a paper-round or something; you might be able to save up for a tent.

Generali

pickledpink wrote: »

I'm not going to elaborate for your benefit! You're in that little club run my Turnbull, Walter & co...............a bunch of have-nots!

I never actually said HPI was a good thing (but we all know it it is don't we:p ) - I just said HOUSE PRICES INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM! D'oh?

In the 'long term', house prices increase by about 1% over inflation according to pieces in the FT and Economist over the past few years. Once you take into account the costs of ownership it tends to make property a pretty mediocre investment (PPR excepted - that's a great investment for most).

That compares with long term real return of about 3-3.5% for equities, 2-2.5% for bonds and 0.5% for cash.

Of course property has one thing going for it - you can invest 'sweat equity'. That is to say that you can put in a new bathroom or something to increase the value of it which you can't do with shares. The value of a share isn't going to increase if you paint the certificate a nice apple white colour!

Pobby

pickledpink wrote: »

I'm not going to elaborate for your benefit! You're in that little club run my Turnbull, Walter & co...............a bunch of have-nots!

I never actually said HPI was a good thing (but we all know it it is don't we:p ) - I just said HOUSE PRICES INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM! D'oh?

Anyway, rather than worrying yourselves about something you'll never have, why don't you go and get a paper-round or something; you might be able to save up for a tent.

Well pickledpink,I broadly are in support of the ``club`` members.Oh and buy the way,I am mortgage free we enough saved to go out and buy another property for cash right now.(I think that seeting fire to my pubic hair and extinguishing it with a shovel would be preferable than buying property right now).

And before you go shooting ya mouth off,I have been in businesses for many years and believeme it is very easy to go bankrupt threw no fault of your own!

wii_man1

pickledpink wrote: »

Well thank you very much, Walter, for allowing others to have opinions too!:T

As it happens, I don't agree with your opinion either, but I don't think I'm better than you because I have different views.:rolleyes:

The problem with your argument is that you categorically state what's going to happen in the property market! Have you told Gordon Brown by any chance?:rotfl:

You're only going on assumptions and no-one really knows what's going to happen. BUT, looking back over the last century it's proven that even when their is a dive/crash/stagnation - it ALWAYS bounces back plus MORE!

I bet YOUR house is twice what it was just FIVE years ago; and even if there is a slump - property will never drop back to those prices.

And now interest rates are set to go down AGAIN, it will stave off a crash of the proportions that some of you sour-graped property-wannabee's are gleefully hoping for.

The UK has severe housing shortage, and as long as demand outstrips supply property will always be in demand - and that keeps prices stable (even accounting for the odd blip every decade or so).

Anyway, except for a very small reduction, property prices haven't dropped that much at all: and going by all the news reports etc it's doubtful they'll drop much further given the proposed TWO interest rate cuts for the new year!

are you aware that even if the "base rate" drops it won`t be passed on to borrowers ?:rotfl: you did the right thing son by selling