House Price Crash Discussion Thread

HammersFan

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

You've got your "doommongery" label all wrong. Those hoping for a fall in prices often preach this benefit. It's those that talked up the market who ignored it.

I don't agree. The majority of people who post here seem to be of the view that falling house prices are a 'rout' that will see poor unsuspecting suckers (who bought houses) out on the street. Thus leaving the gloaters who hope for a fall, ready with their cash savings to snap up cheap property. The benefits of a stable market (for those with the guts and drive to push themselves to buy a house) are almost never mentioned.

Turnbull2000

The majority of people who post here seem to be of the view that falling house prices are a 'rout' that will see poor unsuspecting suckers (who bought houses) out on the street

Think you can back that statement up?

HammersFan wrote: »

leaving the gloaters who hope for a fall, ready with their cash savings to snap up cheap property. The benefits of a stable market (for those with the guts and drive to push themselves to buy a house) are almost never mentioned.

Once again, your thinking is all backwards and lacks logic.

20% YOY price increases are not stable. That's a credit fuelled asset bubble. Did you know that UK debt levels are about to overtake GPD for the first time in history? I think your call for stability has quickly backfired.

"Unsuspecting suckers" made their choice through free will. Society and long-term stability as a whole should not suffer due to a risk taking minority who helped perpetuate a damaging asset bubble.

Let's assume those who will benefit from lower prices can be categorised as "gloaters". This would also include everybody who wishes to upsize, their children, their children's children and practically every business (other than EAs and lenders) thanks to increased disposable income. I think that comfortably covers the majority of the population.

You also make the same naive assumption as DreamBreaker - that those not buying are doing so through choice.

DreamBreaker

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

You also make the same naive assumption as DreamBreaker - that those not buying are doing so through choice.

Another attack, wow, your on a role, keep it up.:T

DreamBreaker

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

You also make the same naive assumption as DreamBreaker - that those not buying are doing so through choice.

If they are not buying because they currently cannot afford to buy, and not that they are choosing not to buy, then surely it's safe to say that they want to buy? If they want to buy then surely as soon as prices fall by as little as 10% in fact probably much less then there will be many jumping back on the property bandwagon?

Note: No patronising, No attacking, No Finger Pointing........ just a simple, mature argument against your viewpoint

Turnbull2000

DreamBreaker wrote: »

Another attack, wow, your on a role, keep it up.:T

If you're sensitive enough to view that as an "attack", I suggest you refrain from using the internet and use your PC for solitaire only.

Turnbull2000

DreamBreaker wrote: »

If they are not buying because they currently cannot afford to buy, and not that they are choosing not to buy, then surely it's safe to say that they want to buy? If they want to buy then surely as soon as prices fall by as little as 10% in fact probably much less then there will be many jumping back on the property bandwagon?

Note: No patronising, No attacking, No Finger Pointing........ just a simple, mature argument against your viewpoint

I'm afraid you've grossly misjudged how human sentiment works. If prices were to fall by up to 10%, then the majority wishing to buy or upsize will hold off in anticipation of further falls.

This is exactly how sentiment helped drive up the market - just a different direction that's all.

DreamBreaker

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

If you're sensitive enough to view that as an "attack", I suggest you refrain from using the internet and use your PC for solitaire only.

If you are suggesting calling someone niave isn't an attack to be offended by then I worry for your family and friends. And you further attacked me in your statement "I suggest you refrain from using the internet and use your PC for solitaire only" which is highly patronising.

Why can you not write something like, "I disagree with the statement" or "I do not agree"? In a non-patronising manner. Perhaps then people would not feel attacked.

Biggie

DreamBreaker wrote: »

Man there are some touchy people on here.


I wondered when others would realise.

I have been watching this forum with interest for some time now and am absolutely astounded at some of the advice being given out. As pointed out by various other people, this forum is fairly one-sided.

thanks you
:beer:

Well done :T

I have to completely agree with your entire post 100% and couldn't have written it better. I've thought about posting but like many others just find the doom mongers too agressive and I can't be asked with them....

On a slightly different note regarding the credit crunch. I work in a IB and nobody knows what else will be revealed in the credit world may be we've seen the worst and it will die out maybe not nobody knows . Most IBs have still made decent profits in the rest of the credit markets so their books will still look ok this year.

maybe we will get to keep our jobs next year maybe not. It's just amazing how fast things change.....

HammersFan

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Think you can back that statement up?



Once again, your thinking is all backwards and lacks logic.

20% YOY price increases are not stable. That's a credit fuelled asset bubble. Did you know that UK debt levels are about to overtake GPD for the first time in history? I think your call for stability has quickly backfired.

Let's assume those who will benefit from lower prices can be categorised as "gloaters". This would also include everybody who wishes to upsize, their children, their children's children and practically every business (other than EAs and lenders) thanks to increased disposable income. I think that comfortably covers the majority of the population.

You also make the same naive assumption as DreamBreaker - that those not buying are doing so through choice.

Your post is full of assumptions and comments on things I did not actually say. Are you a politician? I referred to "gloaters" as the people who post on this board telling everyone (who bought a house) how they are screwed now house prices are falling. They are not hoping for price falls for anyone's benefit except their own. The fact is ignored that price falls tend to be associated with a wider economic malaise that helps no-one.

If I want to ease the way for my kids when they come to buy a house, I put money aside for them now. And as soon as I can I will get a BTL that they can have when they reach 21 (thereby locking it in at today's prices). I know I must be a mug, everything is so ludicrously over-valued and will be tonnes cheaper in 15 years (that's irony by the way).

Since when have we had 20% YOY rises across the UK? Since 2005, in many parts of the UK growth has been 5-6% per year (a little more than 3% in real terms - if you take out figures for Scotland, NI and London). I don't really see this a problem - and London aside , the biggest growth has been in areas that were under-valued (e.g. NI).

Those not buying..... are not buying because of the choices they make. I don't earn loads of money, but having a house that I own one day is important to me. There is always a way to get property if you want it badly enough - I don't think blaming others or some economic conspiracy is at all helpful.

DreamBreaker

Biggie wrote: »

DreamBreaker wrote: »

Well done :T

I have to completely agree with your entire post 100% and couldn't have written it better. I've thought about posting but like many others just find the doom mongers too agressive and I can't be asked with them....

hey biggie, did you mean you were in agreement with me in your second quote? That quote was mine not logit's and i would like to claim it back :j

Hehe;) Thanks anyway