House Price Crash Discussion Thread

WTF?_2

Citigroup have $49 BILLION of 'toxic' assets that they are desperately trying to keep from being priced on the open market (ie. they would sell for a lot less than that, incurring a huge loss on the balance sheet.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7143823.stm

That's the scale of losses we are looking at now - and that's why the banks don't trust each other enough to lend money between themselves.

But don't worry, nothing to worry about. House prices and the economy can keep on booming for ever, so there's never been a better time to take on a huge amount of debt to buy a house :rotfl:

DreamBreaker

logit wrote: »

Man there are some touchy people on here.
quote]

I wondered when others would realise.

I have been watching this forum with interest for some time now and am absolutely astounded at some of the advice being given out. As pointed out by various other people, this forum is fairly one-sided. Anyone who dare even mention that prices will not fall, never mind may even go up, gets shouted down, bullied, and attacked, not only for the comments they make but also personally too!

I have observed comments made by those in favour of a property crash along the lines of "haven't those arguing that property prices will not fall gone quiet these days". I have to say, well yes they have, and do you wonder why? Not because they do not believe in what they are saying, but because it’s pointless even trying to argue against anyone on here because nobody wants to listen. Its turns into an all out war!

I have noticed people actually advising others not to buy property as they think prices will fall. I find this wholly irresponsible. I also notice that if anyone advises others to buy, that they are told buy members of this forum that they are being irresponsible for handing out advice!! I find this hypocritical!

NOONE knows what will happen to property prices in the future, but whether they go up or down, if someone is buying a property comfortably within their personal finances, and is also buying as a property to live in and not as an investment, I see no reason not to buy a property now. However that is my opinion, if I were able to comfortably afford a house now I would not be sitting and hoping for falls that’s for sure. If you are buying for the security of a roof over your head and you can comfortably afford it, you will not be wasting money on rent lining a landlords pockets and you have a home to live in for the rest of your life if needs be.

For the record, I do not believe prices will rise much in the next few years. BUT I also don’t foresee any "crash" either! Note, a crash means significant price falls, but has anyone on here defined how far house prices have to fall for it to constitute a crash. Taking London out of the equation as this completely distorts the market. I would suggest that a crash would be a fall of 20% or more nationwide excluding London? Any other offers?

To back up my argument against a house price crash, owning a home is an emotional desire and demand for property in the UK remains high. If prices fell by 10%, many “wanna be” home owners would see this as a good purchasing opportunity. Yes, many of you on this forum, who will be competing with each other for a property, will probably not dare miss the opportunity to jump on the ladder if prices fall by as little as that! There is also a shortage of supply of property in the UK compared to demand, fuelled by household growth, immigration and investment. Britain is a small and relatively crowded island and restrictions on development will remain, at the same time the country is likely to see continued immigration and increase in households. OK, start arguing against, but like it or not, it is true!

Furthermore, if prices stagnate, which they have already been doing in some areas of the UK, sellers can afford to sit tight rather than cut their price substantially. With employment high and the economy continuing to grow, homeowners should be able to hold on and those who have owned their home for longer than five to ten years should be protected from negative equity.

I often read on here comparisons to the US economy. Yes a similar scenario triggered the slump in the US property market but a vital difference is that Britain has tighter controls on new building and is more dependent on second hand housing stock than America. Besides we have far less land to build on than the vast lands in US.

Barring a major economic shock I would suggest house prices will rise at about 2 - 3% annually for the next few years, posting little real increases in value, with interest rates of around 6% here to stay.

Ultimately, if you want a home for your family to live in, there is rarely a bad time to buy, but there are sometimes better times to buy!

I suppose now the wolves will attack. I do not want a war. I am entitled to an opinion on this forum just as you are. I only hope those you have frightened off are not afraid to come back and voice their opinions, then perhaps we may have an objective forum where we can see true opinions of the future of the property market.

Thank you

:beer:

JBeau

NOONE knows what will happen to property prices in the future, but whether they go up or down, if someone is buying a property comfortably within their
Barring a major economic shock I would suggest house prices will rise at about 2 - 3% annually for the next few years, posting little real increases in value, with interest rates of around 6% here to stay.

Ultimately, if you want a home for your family to live in, there is rarely a bad time to buy, but there are sometimes better times to buy
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Are you for real? Major economic shock? HELLO!!! credit crunch isn't an economic shock then.....and you suggest prices will rise by 2- 3%? You are being totally irresponsible by implying a rosey future for anyone buying property at these already heady heights. I am not personally attacking your opinions - but why do you think (hope) rates will be around 6% to stay (!)?

DreamBreaker

JBeau wrote: »

NOONE knows what will happen to property prices in the future, but whether they go up or down, if someone is buying a property comfortably within their
Barring a major economic shock I would suggest house prices will rise at about 2 - 3% annually for the next few years, posting little real increases in value, with interest rates of around 6% here to stay.

Ultimately, if you want a home for your family to live in, there is rarely a bad time to buy, but there are sometimes better times to buy
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Are you for real? Major economic shock? HELLO!!! credit crunch isn't an economic shock then.....and you suggest prices will rise by 2- 3%? You are being totally irresponsible by implying a rosey future for anyone buying property at these already heady heights. I am not personally attacking your opinions - but why do you think (hope) rates will be around 6% to stay (!)?

There we go if we cant format a sensible argument, attack! You just proved my point, thanks so much, you made me very happy!:T

If you actually read and digest my post instead of jumping on the defence I am not predicting a rosey future, a 2-3 % growth is hardly rosey and as I stated I do not predict much growth for a few years, that does not mean to say if you want a property for your family that you should not buy.

HammersFan

Dreambreaker. Great posting.

Rarely have I seen such an embittered bunch of people as those in here. The frequent abuse they dish out must be an indication of their anger and resentment at waiting too long to buy. What they don't seem to realise when uneccesarily pasting buyers, is that in a price fall (v unlikely I agree), owners who are looking to trade up will have opportunities too. All this doomongery is just a poor coping strategy - surely its better to go out and look for ways to get what you want / need whatever the market conditions (as opposed to sitting around moaning at those who find themselves in abetter position)....

Gorgeous_George

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Citigroup have $49 BILLION of 'toxic' assets ...

Yeah but, no but, yeah but wiv the dollar plummeting, that'll be 'bout £2.50 next week.

bovvered?

GG

DreamBreaker

HammersFan wrote: »

Dreambreaker. Great posting.

Rarely have I seen such an embittered bunch of people as those in here. The frequent abuse they dish out must be an indication of their anger and resentment at waiting too long to buy. What they don't seem to realise when uneccesarily pasting buyers, is that in a price fall (v unlikely I agree), owners who are looking to trade up will have opportunities too. All this doomongery is just a poor coping strategy - surely its better to go out and look for ways to get what you want / need whatever the market conditions (as opposed to sitting around moaning at those who find themselves in abetter position)....

In complete agreement with you :beer: .

I am not encouraging war with the trouble causers on this forum, I simply would like the right for me and others to post an alternative viewpoint to a "property market crash" without receiving a barrage of abuse!

I have only seen a couple of people attempt to stick up for themselves on here and the result was outright bullying which would not be allowed in any school playground! Absolutely appauling behaviour in my opinion and I am shocked that the forum administrators are letting it go on.

mr.broderick

DreamBreaker wrote: »

In complete agreement with you :beer: .

I am not encouraging war with the trouble causers on this forum, I simply would like the right for me and others to post an alternative viewpoint to a "property market crash" without receiving a barrage of abuse!

I have only seen a couple of people attempt to stick up for themselves on here and the result was outright bullying which would not be allowed in any school playground! Absolutely appauling behaviour in my opinion and I am shocked that the forum administrators are letting it go on!

I noticed you have only recently joined us, were you just an observer for a couple of months prior to joining? Or ... Are you sortofok?

DreamBreaker

mr.broderick wrote: »

I noticed you have only recently joined us, were you just an observer for a couple of months prior to joining? Or ... Are you sortofok?

Sorry? sortofok? I do not understand your suggestion? I stumbled across this forum a few months ago. I do not normally post on forums but I could not hold back any longer.

Turnbull2000

It's a pity that the opposing view frequently appears just as blinkered.

buying as a property to live in and not as an investment, I see no reason not to buy a property now

FTB average age has increased beyond 30 and their numbers have dwindled to an unprecedented low. You saying it's nothing to do with shear unaffordability, but merely the wrong attitude?

Generalising that renting is "wasted money" is also very poor advice.

What they don't seem to realise when uneccesarily pasting buyers, is that in a price fall (v unlikely I agree), owners who are looking to trade up will have opportunities too.

You've got your "doommongery" label all wrong. Those hoping for a fall in prices often preach this benefit. It's those that talked up the market who ignored it.