House Price Crash Discussion Thread

GDB2222

vigesimal wrote: »

Land Registry do not include distressed sales. They state this on their website.

Seems unlikely - do you have a reference for this, ie where on their website?

All the LR sees is a transfer form. How would they know if it's distressed, and how do you define distressed?

pickles110564

vigesimal wrote: »

Land Registry do not include distressed sales. They state this on their website.

Wrong, they register what price all property sells for.

Cannon_Fodder

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/
As per FAQs, House Price Index section, "What data is used in the Land Registry HPI?";

(no direct link, sorry)


The Land Registry HPI is derived from all residential property transactions registered with Land Registry since April 2000, with the following exclusions:

- all commercial transactions
- transfers, conveyances, assignments or leases at a premium with nominal rent which are:

‘right to buy’ sales at a discount
subject to a lease
subject to an existing mortgage
to effect the sale of a share in a property
by way of a gift
by way of exchange
under a compulsory purchase order
under a court order
to Trustees
vesting deeds
transmissions or assents of more than one property
leases for seven years or less


I guess the "under compulsory purchase" and "under court order" are the distressed ones...

Generali

Mary_Hartnell wrote: »

Has anyone got to the bottom of the suggestion that the Land Registry does NOT include forced sales, especially those dumped at auction?

A sale is a sale is a sale however it happens.
I'm not sure though that it is a good time to buy yet, even at knock-down auction prices.

Yes. The Land Registry doesn't include sales ordered by the courts. A poster on the very wonderful www.fool.co.uk website emailed the LR and they apparently confirmed to him that a repo wouldn't be included in their figures.

codger

As an aside to the earlier comments about Vince Cable, I have to say that he's one of the few UK politicians I'd ever trust -- not merely because of what he says, or because of his expertise and experience, but because he has consistently refused to parade his provenance in public. Unlike the ludicrous former Labour MP Doctor Jack Somebody-or-other, who represented a Cumbrian constituency (I think) and is now presumably living it up in the House of Lords with yet another title to massage his fragile ego.

the_worried_one

On ITV earlier there was a prediction of 50% drop from peak, how likely do you think?

Sorry I was only half listening, TV was on in the other room so I dont know who said it, but i believe it was on a tonight documentary?

wymondham

the_worried_one wrote: »

On ITV earlier there was a prediction of 50% drop from peak, how likely do you think?

Sorry I was only half listening, TV was on in the other room so I dont know who said it, but i believe it was on a tonight documentary?

One of many predictions ... who knows if it will fall this far, but it's grim out there!

NoMoreTears

Sounds like we could be about to turn the corner!

When the popular media keep making arbitary scare stories to gain viewers, you know the market is about to turn against them!

There is huge Western World pressure to sort out the inter-bank / inter-national money leding that is currently causing this credit crises, and the lack of mortgage availablity (at high LTV).

There will also be huge pressure to get things stable before the end of the year, so that end-of-year company reporting looks better.

I may be biased (as I am suffering now trying to sell our home), but I really do think that things will start improving by the end of this year, and by next Spring the media will be full of equally ridiculous programs predicting 50% growth and housing shortages!

Hang on in there a little longer, and keep that champagne on ice!

Cheers,
Martin

codger

Sadly, the "popular media", be it a TV programme or a tabloid newspaper, is as reliable a guide to what's likely to happen as a broken weather-vane. So to draw any conclusion, optimistic or pessimistic, is pointless.

Sentiment certainly has a bearing on house prices but affordability is the key. That half-wits like Blair and Brown were consistently unable to recognise that doesn't mean the rest of the populace is similarly moronic.

When the average UK house price reached a point equal to a multiple of average earnings that was utterly unsustainable, then it was obvious the bubble would burst. When that bursting coincided with a similarly inevitable major breakdown in the financial system then, to misquote New Labour, things could only get worse.

I'm sorry for those who, for whatever reason, have to sell at the moment, albeit that it isn't an individual property that has dropped in value but all properties, so the issue isn't one of comparative pricing but relative equity.

But I'm also, paradoxically, happy for all those countless thousands in a younger generation who are as entitled as my generation was to work hard so as to acquire a home of their own, but who have for far, far too long been denied all hope of ever fulfilling that dream.

Maybe now they'll have a chance. And Society will be all the better for it.

MissMoneypenny

Another BTLer has appeared on the bankruptcy board:-

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1179699